Mexico's Drug War

Is Chicago Becoming America’s Ciudad Juárez?

“At least seven people…have been killed and 24 others wounded in a string of shootings in the US city of Chicago in the past two days.” This was one very stark headline the morning of August 26, 2012. The attacks occurred in different parts of the city, with several in the south and west parts of the city. Shockingly, the statistics and incident details were reminiscent of grisly headlines emerging daily from a foreign city 1,500 miles away—Ciudad Juárez, arguably the deadliest place in the Western Hemisphere.

Juárez has been the epicenter of violence in Mexico’s drug war since 2007, when leaders of two major drug cartels—the Sinaloa Federation’s Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán and the Juárez cartel’s Vicente Carrillo Fuentes—failed to see eye-to-eye on a few things and went to war. The annual murder rate skyrocketed, hitting the plateau of 3,622 people killed in 2010 (according to New Mexico State University researcher Molly Molloy) before dropping precipitously to 1,976 in 2011. The trend seems to be continuing into this year, with only 602 murders through August 14.

Chicago, however, is following a different trend. A 2011 report by the Chicago Police Department shows the murder rate held relatively steady between 2004-2011, with a “low” of 433 in 2011 to a high of 513 in 2008. However, this occurred after over a decade of annual murder totals topping 900 during three years in the 1990s. And it looks like 2012 is taking a turn for the worse again. Between the first of the year and August 23, 351 shooting deaths occurred in the city: 37 of those in July, 47 in June, and 51 in May.

The comparison to homicides in Ciudad Juárez this year is stunning—45 were killed there in July, 49 in June, and 74 in May.

Of course, there are several ways in which Chicago and Ciudad Juárez differ that makes the similar numbers sit on footing that isn’t equal. Chicago has a population of roughly 2.7 million people, which is more than twice that of Ciudad Juárez at 1.3 million residents. The geography, industries, and average income levels are very different.

But the two cities might just have more in common than not. Ciudad Juárez is notorious for its corrupt politicians and police officers, with an entire enforcement arm of the Juárez cartel, known as “La Línea,” being comprised almost completely of dirty local cops. Chicago doesn’t exactly have a squeaky clean record in this department, either. In February 2012, University of Illinois at Chicago professor Dick Simpson, who served as alderman of the 44th Ward in Lakeview from 1971 to 1979, found that Chicago is the most corrupt city in the US through using US Department of Justice statistics. 

It should come as no surprise that Chicago has a gang problem. Just over half of this year’s 297 victims so far had gang affiliations. While most of Ciudad Juárez’s violence has been attributed to the war between big cartels, the truth is more subtle. There are more than 500 gangs operating throughout the city’s 800 colonias, or neighborhoods. And the gangs are all doing the same thing, regardless of country or nationality—fighting for turf and drug profits.

According to the US Department of Justice, Mexican cartels dominate most trafficking of wholesale quantities of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana in the Chicago area. DEA Special Agent in Charge Jack Riley told CBS news last month that Mexican cartels have a significant influence on gang violence in Chicago, with three major cartels operating here and “turning parts of this Midwest city into a Mexican border town.”

Chicago’s increasing murder rate isn’t as simple as it seems—something that can just be labeled “typical gang violence” and addressed with more police patrols and neighborhood watches. The roots of the violence run more deeply than some officials might be willing to acknowledge, and stem from another violent part of the hemisphere that is dangerously starting to look more and more similar to “The Windy City.” Residents can only hope that city officials recognize the potential implications of the Chicago-Mexico connection and address them before the murder rate soars even higher.

"'Flood' of drugs from Mexico linked to Atlanta area abductions."

Here is an excerpt from Mary Lou Pickel's article in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

"A recent increase in drug-related kidnappings in Gwinnett County has put a spotlight on drug violence in Georgia, federal agents say. About nine drug-related kidnappings have occurred in Gwinnett this year. The latest involved a man bound and chained in a basement in Lilburn whom federal agents rescued earlier this month. Mexican drug cartels are moving large amounts of cocaine, methamphetamine and marijuana into the country for distribution up the East Coast, said Rodney Benson, the special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement Administration in Atlanta. Drug-related kidnappings have increased in the past 90 days, he said. David Nahmias, U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Georgia, said Gwinnett is a center of Mexican drug cartel activity in the area because of easy transportation on I-85 and a large Hispanic population where traffickers can try to blend in... Representatives of Mexican drug cartels in Atlanta are 'clashing with each other,' the DEA's Benson said. Drug traffickers are also getting younger, Gwinnett County Assistant District Attorney Keith Miles said... Miles says the up-tick in kidnappings is not a 'blip.' 'It's just a matter of time before innocent people get caught in the crossfire,' he said." Link to Full Article

Analysis: This story shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, as Atlanta is a known trafficking hub for Mexican TCOs. What should come as a surprise is that THIS ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN IN JUY 2008! Yep, this headline and complete story would fit right in with news reports coming out today.

Honestly, I don't have much by way of analysis on this story; it really speaks for itself. I highly recommend following the link to the full article and scrolling down to the bottom so you can read some of the kidnapping cases that occurred in the first half of 2008 in Gwinnett. My point for writing this post is to showcase exactly how little we've progressed in acknowledging that Mexico's drug war is here. This kind of stuff has been happening not just in Georgia, but in Alabama, Baltimore, Denver...you name it. US cities nowhere near the border have been experiencing kidnappings and violent drug-related murders for years, but some in charge are happy to pass those incidents off as "the drug business as usual."

And hey, maybe it is. DHS chooses not to keep track of cartel-on-cartel violence here in the US, which totally misses the point of what border violence spillover really is. The El Paso Sheriff's Office has told me that if they investigate a gang-related murder that is somehow connected to the Mexican drug trade, they don't consider that spillover; just "business as usual." I'm pretty sure that DHS wouldn't classify these Gwinnett kidnappings that way either, which makes me wonder how many TCO-related violent incidents are occurring in the United States where agencies - for purely subjective or political reasons - choose to not advertise the link to Mexico. Then you have other agencies, like the DEA and several south Texas departments, who are happy to let Americans know, "Hey! We've got a problem here!"

I just get so angry when I stumble across old news reports like this that read like today's news. It makes me feel like some people at DHS and in the White House are asleep at the wheel. How is it that no progress has been made in the last four years in our cities where Mexican TCOs are operating? It's all about priorities, and it seems obvious to me that the drug war has been nowhere near the top of the national security priority list since it started in earnest several years ago.

"US Gangs That Work With Mexican TCOs — Spillover Or Standard Violence?"

Here's an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's Correspondents Watch:

"In February 2012, two alleged members of the San Diego, Calif., gang Los Palillos (“the toothpicks”) went on trial in San Diego for conspiracy to commit kidnapping for ransom and murder -- with gang and gun-use allegations. Jose Olivera Beritan and David Valencia were just two of the 17 gang members who were indicted in 2009 for murder and kidnapping charges. At the time, nine Palillos were already in jail -- three had been killed in gang-related violent incidents, and several more were at large... Jurors in the Beritan and Valencia trial got more than an earful of the alleged atrocities committed by Los Palillos members, according to reports in The San Diego Union-Tribune. For example, prosecutors told jurors the story of a house in the Paradise Hills area of San Diego where gang members would stash kidnap victims while they waited for ransoms to be paid. In 2007, two men were bound and held captive there for two weeks. Then they were strangled to death, and gang members stuffed their bodies into 55-gallon barrels. To dispose of the bodies, the Palillos dissolved them in acid, a mixture that TCO killers refer to as pozole. In light of the direct connection between Los Palillos and AFO, this case renews the debate over border violence spillover -- namely, what counts as spillover and what is just typical gang violence."

To read the full article at HSToday.us, please CLICK HERE!

"US officials confirm arrest of Juárez cartel leader connected to US Consulate deaths."

Here is an excerpt from Daniel Borunda, Alex Hinojosa and Marty Schladen's article in the El Paso Times:

"Mexican authorities captured the reputed leader of La Linea, a vicious group of thugs that carried out murders and terrorized Juárez for a drug cartel. José Antonio Acosta Hernández, also known as 'El Diego,' one of the highest-ranking bosses of the Juárez drug cartel, was reportedly arrested Friday after a shootout with authorities in a Chihuahua City neighborhood. Acosta was indicted this year in the killings of three people connected to the U.S. Consulate in Juárez... His arrest, according to one expert, may signal the end of the Juárez drug cartel and a downturn in the violence that has gripped Juárez and the state of Chihuahua. Acosta, who was reportedly flown to Mexico City after his capture, is believed to run operations for La Linea in Chihuahua City and Juárez and was arguably the most-wanted man in the state of Chihuahua... In recent weeks, narco-graffiti threatening the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and U.S. Consulate employees appeared on public walls in Juárez and Chihuahua City. The messages telling the "gringos of the DEA" to quit meddling were signed 'Diego'... Many of the public threats from La Linea made frequent references to 'El Diego'... The capture of Acosta may be a new beginning for Juárez residents and a decrease in violence, said University of Texas at El Paso political science professor Tony Payan." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Chalk up another victory for the Calderón administration, as this is a nice one. There's no doubt that Acosta's arrest will have a detrimental impact on La Linea, and perhaps on the VCFO (Juárez cartel) as a whole. The big question is, of course, how much?

Acosta has been indicted in the US for alleged involvement in the attack on the three US Consulate employees, which makes him eligible for extradition. The only thing any narco fears is extradition. Dr Payan mentioned in the article something about Acosta providing good, useful intelligence about his organization and perhaps rivals. That's the key here, both to either preventing Acosta's extradition, reducing his sentence if he is sent to the US for trial (and assuming a conviction, of course), and bringing down the remnants of the VCFO. But will he talk?

No one can really say. Edgar "La Barbie" Valdez Villareal did, and so did Osiel Cárdenas Guillen. If the VCFO really is crumbling, Acosta may believe there's not much left to save - except his own rear end. La Linea has been a force to be reckoned with in Chihuahua for many years, and the VCFO is not a TCO to go quietly into the night - it's been fighting for its life against the Federation for quite some time now, and still maintains a presence in Juárez. However, there is a chance that Acosta could drive some pretty big nails into the VCFO's coffin; we'll see how that develops over the next few weeks and months.

But there's still the other question - how will the assumed demise of La Linea, and perhaps later on the VCFO - affect levels of violence in Juárez? Many people believe that if the VCFO were to concede or be destroyed, the Federation would win control of the Juárez plaza and peace would ensue. Unfortunately, that probably wouldn't be the case.

In past years, the violence in Ciudad Juárez has been a result of the turf battle between the VCFO and the Federation. But something happened in the last couple of years to change to rules - throw them out the window actually...the local drug trade exploded. There are something like 500 colonias, or neighborhoods, in Juárez, and each one has its own gang defending its turf - and dealing drugs. These gangs have joined in the bloodshed, and it's gotten to the point that no one in Juárez really knows who is killing whom. The Federation and the VCFO don't have their top people mixed up in that mess; they hire out lower level thugs to do the grunt work for them in that chaos. The cops are afraid of going in and asking too many questions, let alone thoroughly investigating any murders that occur in Juárez, so it's too simplistic to say that once the VCFO is out, everything will get better. Juárez still has a few hundred gangs to deal with.

That being said, if the Federation ends up being top dog in Juárez as a result of Acosta's arrest (whether that's in a few weeks or months), they have the power to rein in all the disparate factions in the city and establish some order. Whether or not they want to is a good question. With all the killing and chaos, less authority is scrutinizing the movement of drugs across the border into El Paso. However, all those gang members already in the drug business and possibly looking for work...this could result in the largest narco recruiting drive the drug war has ever seen.

At this early point in the game, post-Acosta arrest, it's too soon to tell what impact him being out of the game will have. Of course, it's always interesting to speculate, and imagine positive outcomes. As always, more to come...

"Mexico’s Drug War Is Impacting Communities Well Beyond The Border."

Here is an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's "Correspondents' Watch":

"Many Americans believe criminal incidents related to Mexico’s narco-wars are generally limited to Mexico itself, or at least only to border cities and towns in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. But because Mexico-based transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are operating in more than 270 US cities from coast to coast, that isn’t the case... There are criminal activities related to the drug war that are happening thousands of miles from the border... US homeland security officials focus a lot of their efforts and resources on the southwest border in an attempt to mitigate the effects of TCOs on the United States. Because of the publicity surrounding these efforts and media attention paid to the debate over the security of the southwest border, TCO activities in the US interior often go unnoticed."

To read the full article on HSToday.us, please CLICK HERE!

"Questioning Arizona's Sinaloa Gang Bust."

Here is an excerpt from Patrick Corcoran's excellent analysis on InSightCrime.org:

"U.S. authorities announced the break up of an Arizona gang said to be working for Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, though how far this will really be a blow for Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera's organization is a matter of debate. Officials expressed satisfaction at the arrest of 27 members of the Jesus Valencia Rodriguez Organization, capturing more than half the group's known membership... While the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) linked those arrested in Arizona directly to Guzman Loera's Sinaloa Cartel, it is not clear how close the relationship actually is. The authorities said that the Jesus Valencia Rodriguez organization had direct ties not to Guzman or his partner Ismael Zambada, but to the Paez Soto family, which operates in Caborca, Sinaloa. Furthermore, authorities said that the Jesus Valencia Rodriguez group is based in Mexico, so it is unclear how close those arrested were to the top of that organization. In the past, U.S. authorities have played up connections between Americans arrested in drug sweeps and their more notorious suppliers in Mexico, despite a enormous geographical and operational distance between the two... According to the AP, this was typical. Many of those whose arrests were hailed as an unprecedented strike against Guzman and other Mexican capos were low-level American pushers whose place in the global narcotics supply chain was so far removed from Sinaloa that they had no idea that it even existed." Link to Full Article

Analysis: First, I highly recommend that you read the entire article, because it brings up some really important points. Second, I only wanted to add to Patrick's excellent analysis because I've written somewhat tangentially about this subject before. The drug war is filled with exaggerations and misinformation, and it's a source of much frustration for me.

There are dozens of examples like the ones Patrick points out regarding the association between drug dealers arrested here in the US and major cartels in Mexico. In addition to Operation Xcellerator in 2009, which was decidedly NOT a crushing blow to the Sinaloa Federation, US authorities have carried out massive gang sweeps and one operation against members of La Familia Michoacana in 2010. That one was also labeled a "crushing blow," and was similarly no such thing.

Then there are attempts to link domestic marijuana growers and drug-dealing gang members to the major cartels. We know the link is there, but proving it - especially in court - is challenging at best. When Mexicans are brought by the DTOs into the US for the purpose of growing marijuana in our national parks and forests, those Mexicans usually don't know who they're working for. And that's intentional; if they're caught, there's nothing they can confess to the police. Drug distribution operations in the US are run by the DTOs like a terrorist cell structure. There are many levels of middle and lower management, and US-based gangs are subcontracted out to sell to users on the street; they often don't know exactly where the drugs come from for the same reason - they can't be traced back to a particular DTO or drug lord.

While it looks great in the media to tout a major drug bust or arrest of several hundred purported members of a major DTO inside the US, those reports are often inaccurate and misleading. Making a seizure of a few hundred pounds of marijuana here, a few pounds of heroin or methamphetamine there, and arresting a few hundred gang members isn't going to crush American drug demand OR Mexican DTO operations any time soon.

"Focus in Krentz killing on suspect in US."

Here is an excerpt from Brady McCombs' article in the Arizona Daily Star:

"The killing of a Southern Arizona rancher that sparked an outcry to secure the border was not random, and investigators are focusing on a suspect in the United States, the Arizona Daily Star has learned. High-ranking government officials with credible information...said Cochise County   Sheriff Larry Dever is investigating a person in the United States, not in Mexico, in connection with the shooting... Krentz was found gunned down on his ranch northeast of Douglas a day after his brother reported drug-smuggling activity to the Border Patrol that led to the seizure of 290 pounds of marijuana and the arrest of eight people on the ranch. The night of the killing, officers followed a single set of footprints to the U.S.-Mexico border. That sparked widespread speculation that Krentz was killed by an illegal immigrant or a drug smuggler from Mexico... Forty-eight hours after the killing, Dever told reporters that investigators believed the shooting was carried out by one person, but that they didn't know if it was a man or a woman, or the person's nationality. But Dever said they had reports that Krentz made reference to an "illegal alien" over a two-way radio he used to communicate with his brother while working that day on the southern part of their ranch... The Southeastern Arizona valley where Krentz was killed is a heavily trafficked people- and drug-smuggling corridor that has seen an increase in burglaries in recent years. Sheriff's investigators and most residents believe the crimes are being committed by drug smugglers heading back to Mexico." Link to Full Article

Analysis: I've received a LOT of questions by email on this incident in the last couple of weeks, and my response has typically been that it's hard to speculate too much because, to date, no one really knows what happened to Krentz. I also make it a point to not typically comment on illegal immigration stories because (a) it detracts from my focus on different border violence issues, and (b) it's just way too controversial and I'm a conflict-avoider.

So what makes this story different, that's making me want to write a blog post on it? Two things, specifically. First, I feel a very strong need to remind people that no one, including investigators and the press, know exactly what happened to Krentz. The only facts anyone has is that (a) Krentz is dead, and (b) Krentz was shot. Speculation ranges from the killer being an illegal immigrant (which many think led to the current controversial law in Arizona), to a contract assassin who specifically targeted Krentz, to a drug dealer who Krentz stumbled across while he was transporting a load. Before anyone gets screwed into the ceiling over this, wait to find out all the facts.

Second, this statement by Sheriff Devers really makes me mad, but not for the reasons you might think: "We cannot sit by while our citizens are terrorized, robbed and murdered by ruthless and desperate people who enter our country illegally."

To provide some much-needed perspective, I have to remind him and readers alike that we have been dealing with this behavior by violent gang members for years. And now he - and others - want to get mad about it? Members of brutal gangs like the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) have been in the US for decades, killing each other and innocent bystanders in drive-bys in large cities and small towns alike. A good chunk of MS-13 members are here in the US illegally, and have been (again) for decades. They get busted for criminal activity, go back to El Salvador (big point - they aren't Mexican), then come back illegally to commit more crimes. I just have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that the media and politicians alike are making this story into such a huge and controversial deal when (a) we don't even know who killed this rancher, and (b) our citizens have been terrorized, robbed, and murdered by gang members who have been here illegally (in 33 US states, I might add) for decades.

I'm not naïve enough to ignore the fact that this story comes at a crucial time in the immigration debate, and people on both sides of the aisle will use this poor rancher's memory however they see fit to suit their agendas. Just remember that we have some serious gang violence issues across this entire country that are much more serious - and very much connected to the Mexican drug trade - that shouldn't be ignored or forgotten.

"Mexican police ask spirits to guard them in drug war."

Here is an excerpt from Robin Emmott's Reuters.com article:

"In secret meetings that draw on elements of Haitian Voodoo, Cuban Santeria and Mexican witchcraft, priests are slaughtering chickens on full moon nights on   beaches, smearing police with the blood and using prayers to evoke spirits to guard them as drug cartels battle over smuggling routes into California. Other police in the city of Tijuana, across the border from San Diego, tattoo their bodies with Voodoo symbols, believing they can repel bullets... Badly-paid Mexican police have long prayed to Christian saints before going out on patrol in Mexico, the world's second-most populous Roman Catholic country after Brazil... Army raids on homes of police working for cartels have found ornately adorned Santeria-type altars covered with statues and skulls stuffed with money paying homage to gods and spirits... Many police see a need to shield themselves from witchcraft used by drug gangs who mix Caribbean black magic and occultism from southern Mexico using things like human bones, dead bats and snake fangs to curse enemies and unleash evil spirits... The rituals are carried out by sometimes shadowy Mexicans who have menial day jobs and are priests by night. They claim to be trained in Voodoo, Santeria and other religions from time spent in the Caribbean and in Mexican towns like Catemaco, a center for witchcraft on the Gulf of Mexico." Link to Full Article

I'm very excited to have my first guest posting of analysis on this article. I'd like to introduce readers to Tony M. Kail, who is an author as well as a trainer for numerous local, state and federal agencies. Tony has spent twenty years researching magico-religious cultures throughout the world. He is the author of two books for law enforcement professionals and numerous articles on the subjects of cults, sects and deviant groups. He has also served as a peace officer and animal cruelty investigator. Tony has lectured for the Federal Bureau of Investigation, United States Capitol Police and the United States Army. You can read more about his consulting work HERE. Tony also has a book out, titled "Santa Muerte: Mexico's Mysterious Saint of Death," and you can read more about him and the book HERE. For now, here is Tony's take on the above article.

Analysis: The mixture of criminality and magico-religious practices has become a growing phenomenon among street gangs and drug cartels. Historically criminal organizations throughout the world have taken advantage of local folklore and religious faith in order to get a magical "edge" against their enemies. It is understandable that members of organizations like MS-13 would gravitate toward using "anti-Christian" symbolism in their graffiti and tattoos. "Demonized" symbols help promote fear and communicate an air of "power" toward those outside of these subcultures. Likewise the embracing of local spiritual traditions from the worship of folk saints such as Santa Muerte to Santeria take on a dark connotation among these criminal elements. It is unfortunate to those who practice these spiritual traditions. Most religions such as Santeria, Palo Mayombe and Voodoo are practiced by adherents who are not involved in criminal activity. It is those who use these spiritual traditions for selfish means to protect criminal activities that are frequently associated with these faiths.

It would be interesting to know if these cartels that are using these religious practices were familiar with these faiths prior to involvement in criminal activities. Matamoros killer Adolfo DeConstanzo grew up around the religious traditions of Santeria and Palo Mayombe. It was only during his later years that he sought to misuse these traditions in concert with criminal activity. Are members of the cartels discovering that magico-religious practices can be incorporated into their deadly narco-culture or are these spiritual traditions that they grew up around and now simply bring them into gang-life?

The prevalence of shrines dedicated to folk saints and Afro-Caribbean deities at crime scenes may be remnants of local culture. If we discovered statues of the Buddha in the homes of Asian criminals would this be so out of the ordinary? We have to take into consideration the cultural atmosphere in which many of these groups operate. I believe this is also an argument that should be considered in light of the Mexican authorities seeking to destroy the shrines and chapels dedicated to Santa Muerte. There are many followers of the "holy death" that are not involved in drug cartels and criminal activity.

The allegations that Mexican authorities may be involved in some of these magico-religious practices comes at no surprise. A therapeutic "magical war" between the police and criminals may only result in the discovery of many "spells" or "workings" between the two parties and increased sales in occult supplies in the region. In U.S. law enforcement history, South Carolina Sheriff Ed McTeer was a legendary lawman that became famous for his skills as a "root doctor." McTeer served as Sherriff in a region where "root magic" was popular among criminals. McTeer's reputation as a "spiritual worker" became a psychological "edge" that created fear in local criminals. Perhaps the Mexican authorities are using this same technique.

The use of magical rituals and charms might provide those officers who are culturally accustomed to these practices a feeling of spiritual strength. Like the use of "war paint" on a warriors face, the use of ritual may provide some individuals with a sense of spiritual protection. An argument might be also be made that this increased "spiritual stress" between the police and criminals may only add to an already high stressed atmosphere in streets of Mexico. Could this result in a magical war that pushes police or criminals to perform extreme ceremonies that result in violence?

The Mexican authorities are definitely engaging in some form of "psychological warfare" against the cartels. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

"US soldier dies in drug attack in Mexico strip bar."

Here is an excerpt from Julian Cardona's Reuters article:

"Gunmen with automatic weapons burst into a Mexican strip club on the U.S. border, opened fire on patrons and killed six people including an American soldier, the army said on Wednesday. The hooded gunmen stormed into the bar in Ciudad Juarez as strippers were dancing for customers, sought out the six men and shot them each several times. A 26-year-old off-duty U.S. soldier who had crossed over from El Paso, Texas, was among the dead, army spokesman Enrique Torres said. 'It appears drugs were being sold at the place,' Torres said of the strip joint. 'The hitmen went directly for their victims, no one else.' The suspected drug hitmen escaped the bar easily, while panicking customers fled in their cars as pools of blood gathered around spent bullet cases on the bar floor." Link to Full Article

Analysis: This news story just left me speechless, and made my stomach completely sink. Separate news reports said the soldier was actually a US Air Force staff sergeant, named David Booher, stationed at Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico. He was originally from El Paso, so he was probably home on leave and went across the border with some of his hometown buddies. I don't know if that was the case, as it's 6:00 pm in New Mexico right now, and there's likely no one at the base public affairs office right now.

But what the hell was an active duty servicemember doing in a Cuidad Juárez strip club?

Current military policy prohibits military members from traveling to certain parts of Mexico without explicit permission from their commanders. My military sources tell me they're waiting for the investigation to reveal whether or not the soldier had that permission. 

The most important question that begs a firm answer is, was he targeted for execution, and if so, why?

While I hate this fact, US military members sometimes use drugs, and sometimes even deal drugs. I know because I was one of the people who investigated them. Was Booher somehow involved in the drug business, and if so, was he targeted by DTO hitmen because of it?

As unpleasant and disheartening as that scenario sounds, there's one that's even worse: he may have been targeted simply because he was a US military member. I don't know what the likelihood of this is, as it would represent a major - and dangerous - shift in tactics for Mexican DTOs. Rumors to that end have been batted about, but nothing has ever been confirmed, and low confidence was placed in their credibility.

The third and most likely scenario is that Booher was in the wrong place at the wrong time. Two of his fellow victims were strip club employees, and Booher may have been seen as guilty by association by the hitmen simply because he was in the company of people in the drug business. DTO sicarios have yet to start killing people at random; but they have been known to kill "extra" people "just in case," and be more tolerant of collateral damage to ensure they get their target.

If I find out more about this case/investigation, I'll be sure to post an update.

REVIEW: "This is for the Mara Salvatrucha," by Samuel Logan

This is the first time I've posted a book review on this blog, but there aren't too many books out there like this one. If you follow the gang situation in Mexico or elsewhere in Central America, then this book is definitely for you. Here's an excerpt from my review, and a quick summary of the book, on Examiner.com:

"Samuel Logan’s debut book is a well-written, engrossing tale that combines solid research and a great narrative about a group the FBI has called “the world’s most dangerous gang”: the Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13.

"This non-fiction work is mostly about Brenda Paz, a young Honduran girl who found solace in American gang life when her family started to fall apart. After being witness to too much gang violence and getting arrested for her indirect involvement, Brenda decided she wanted out. Thus began her work as an informant for local law enforcement and the FBI.

"Throughout the can’t-put-it-down narrative of gang murders, family strife, and confrontations between Brenda and the police, Logan intersperses facts about MS-13 that provide readers with a very good picture of just how dangerous this gang has become. Much of the story takes place in Texas and northern Virginia, and Logan explains why young immigrants in these areas are susceptible to the lure of gang life. He also lays out details of the gang’s expansion in the United States, and how they finally started to garner the attention of law enforcement across the country."

To read my full review, and for links to Sam Logan's book site, personal site, and blog, CLICK HERE.

"Juárez in shock: Attack considered city's worst multiple shooting."

Here is an excerpt from Stephanie Sanchez and Daniel Borunda's article in the El Paso Times:

"The brutality of a massacre at Juárez drug rehabilitation center in which 18 people were killed shocked a city already plagued with record-breaking violence. A motive for the attack was under  investigation, but it appeared to be linked to feuding drug trafficking groups... The incident is at least the third and largest mass shooting at drug treatment centers in Juárez since last year. Shortly before 8 p.m. Wednesday, an unknown number of gunmen with assault rifles burst into the Casa El Aliviane drug rehab center on 1243 Uranio, west of downtown Juárez near the Rio Grande across Downtown El Paso. The gunmen demanded all 20 people in the building line up in a hallway... The assailants then began firing their AK-47 rifles. Sixteen men died piled on each other at the scene. Four people were taken to a hospital in serious condition where two of them died a short time later. Officials had initially reported 19 people had died and six others were wounded. Officials said the other two wounded remained in serious condition... The Aztecas and their U.S.-based brethren the Barrio Azteca prison gang are known to run drug treatment centers for their members in Juárez, FBI agents have said. The gang is allied with La Linea, as the Juárez drug cartel is also known. 'I think the significance (in the drug rehab attack) is in the number of people killed but these were street-level people, (drug) users or gang members,' said Robert Almonte, executive director of the Texas Narcotics Officers Association. 'Why would anybody want to kill drug addicts? Because they are affiliated with a cartel,' Almonte said." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Originally when I first read this story, I was worried this was another case of tolerated collateral damage. Specifically, I though maybe two or three of the rehab patients were somehow affiliated with a rival cartel or gang, and the attackers killed everyone in a haphazard and sloppy fashion just to make sure they hit their marks. Then I read this little gem in the El Paso Times article:

"The Aztecas and their U.S.-based brethren the Barrio Azteca prison gang are known to run drug treatment centers for their members in Juárez, FBI agents have said. The gang is allied with La Linea, as the Juárez drug cartel is also known."

Apparently, drug addicts - being vulnerable and easily influenced in their state at rehab - are easy marks for DTOs and gangs looking for recruits. La Familia Michoacana, in particular, also likes to proselytize at rehab centers. So we can happily read about all the arrests and roundups of gang and DTO members in the Mexican dailies, all the while knowing that they're replenishing their ranks with addicts. Addicts who are later given drugs, then guns, then told to go kill people. And I wonder why hits in Mexico are getting more sloppy.

"17 charged in string of brutal kidnappings and slayings in San Diego suburbs."

Here is an excerpt from Richard Marosi's article in the Los Angeles Times:

"Authorities announced charges Thursday against a Mexican gang that took Tijuana-style violence to the upscale suburbs of San Diego County, kidnapping, torturing and killing well-to-do residents, even after some families paid large ransoms. The gang, a rogue cell of the Tijuana-based Arellano Felix drug cartel, moved across the border in 2002 and posed as U.S. law enforcement, donning FBI and police uniforms and caps while snatching victims outside homes and public places, said San Diego County prosecutors. Nine victims were killed from 2004 to 2007, and the bodies of two of them were dissolved in chemicals at a rented house in San Diego. Gang members were also charged with trying to murder a Chula Vista police officer in September 2005, peppering his car with high-caliber bullets before fleeing in a car. The gang targeted people it suspected of having links to organized crime, although some victims had no known ties, authorities said." Link to Full Article

Analysis: When I was working as an analyst for the State of California, one of the most frustrating things for me, as well as colleagues in other border states, was the fact that no standardized definition exists for the term "spillover" or the concept of "border violence spillover." Whether or not it is occurring depends on whom you ask. In February 2009, Texas state Homeland Security Director Steve McCraw said, "Yes, absolutely it has occurred; there's no question about it," McCraw said after a hearing before the House Committee on Border and International Affairs." However, the unanimous opinion of 10 Southern Arizona law-enforcement officials interviewed by the Arizona Daily Star in April 2009 was that spillover was NOT happening. "Spillover crime would be bad for business," Douglas, Arizona Police Chief Alberto Melis said. "And they're businessmen."

But what guidance are these people using to form their very visible and influential public opinions regarding spillover? I ask this question because, reading the reasons 17 people were charged in San Diego for that string of kidnappings and killings, it's obvious to me (but apparently not to everyone) that border violence spillover is happening in San Diego, and probably plenty of other cities on the US side of the border. You might ask what guidance I'M using to form my opinion. One part of it is the fact that violent criminal activity directly related to Mexico's drug trade occurred and is occurring in the United States. A second part of it is that many of the perpetrators of these types of crimes move freely between both countries and target illegals, legal residents, and US citizens alike. True, most victims are not "innocent" in the sense that they are usually involved or connected to organized crime in some way. This fact does little to calm the fears of neighbors in the US cities and towns where these crimes are happening. The third part is the bold willingness to impersonate US law enforcement officers and use high-powered weapons in our cities to carry out the orders of foreign organized crime groups. If the actions of those 17 individuals don't qualify as border violence spillover, I don't know what ever will. 

"The growing threat of grenades from Mexico."

Here is an excerpt from Jacques Billeaud's Associated Press article in The Dallas Morning News:

"It was a scenario U.S. law enforcement had long feared: A fragmentation grenade from Mexico's bloody drug war tossed into a public place. Only the grenade thrower's bumbling in that January incident prevented bloodshed in a South Texas bar – he neglected to pull a  second safety clasp. But the act was proof that one of the deadliest weapons in Mexico's drug battle is a real threat to the U.S., and investigators are stepping up efforts to make sure it doesn't happen again. While Mexican drug violence has been spilling across the border in the form of kidnappings and killings, grenades are a particular worry because they can kill large numbers of people indiscriminately, and they are a weapon of choice among Mexican cartel members... [Grenades] are preferred by drug hit men because they are cheap and easy to find. Many are left over from Central America's civil wars and sold on the black market to drug cartels. Some are brought in by weapons smugglers. Others are diverted from the region's militaries: In April, Guatemala seized 563 grenades after a shootout with Mexican drug cartel members, and officials later determined the grenades came from Guatemalan military bases. And there is evidence that those grenades are making their way north." Link to Full Article

Analysis: When that South Korean-made grenade was thrown into a bar in Texas, I was working as an analyst for California's homeland security apparatus, so I was very concerned about a similar incident occurring in San Diego or Imperial Counties (closest to the Mexican border). That happened in February 2009, and a similar incident hasn't happened since, either in Texas or anywhere else on the US side of the border. Given the widespread availability of hand grenades in Mexico - along with the DTOs' willingness to use them - one has to wonder why they haven't been used more frequently in the US.

I can only speculate, of course, but DTOs historically haven't been too big on drawing attention from US law enforcement inside US territory. There was a huge to-do in May 2009 about a possible order by Sinaloa's "El Chapo" Guzman to engage US law enforcement (rather than run) if confronted while moving a load. Neither that order, nor the meeting where that order was supposedly given, were ever confirmed. I don't believe that order was ever given because confronting US law enforcement unnecessarily on US territory is bad for business. Like it or not, several Mexican DTOs and their US-based gang distributors have a good thing going here. Drawing major attention to themselves by lobbing grenades into public places or in front of police stations in Texas - like they do almost every day in Mexico - is not the best way to stay under the radar and keep the drug business going by keeping scrutiny to a minimum.

To further back up my theory, I'm taking a look at the Pharr grenade incident itself and the alleged perpetrators. The "attack" was completely bungled, and the grenade was thrown by a local gang member. I still don't know exactly why they did it, but rumors being thrown around at the time included an attempt to impress the Gulf cartel to seek ad-hoc employment with them, as well as some kind of gang-on-gang hit. Regardless, it was an amateur job by a group of punks who had no clue what they were doing. Not that the level of professionalism in Mexican hits is always high, but in a DTO-sanctioned job, the grenade usually goes off.

Then there's the question of whether or not the author's assertion that grenades are heading north is true. Well...maybe. I don't doubt that grenades could make their way into the US for similar attacks in the future, but if they're already there, the ATF and local cops aren't finding them; at least, not in the numbers that the Mexican authorities are finding them. And while grenade attacks are more common in Mexico and are viewed as a criminal matter, they just don't happen at all in the US. I can almost guarantee you that a grenade going off in a McDonald's or a mall or in front of a police station in Arizona would be viewed by civilians as a terrorist-style attack. DTOs know this, and they know that would be very bad for business indeed.

"The Use of Religion in the World of Organized Crime."

Here is a translated excerpt from Francisco Gomez's Spanish-language article in the Mexican paper El Universal:

"A new facet utilized by organized crime groups in Mexico is the use of religion to recruit new members and to keep them in line. Religion also serves as a means of redemption for the crimes they commit. Facundo Rosas, the recently appointed Federal Police Commissioner, warns of the danger of an 'explosive mixture' of religion and criminal activity. Knowledgeable regarding the narco world, Rosas indicates that religious elements are used by criminals as a way of seeking divine or supernatural protection that will intercede with God on their behalf, and thereby expiate their sins. They also use religion to create a shared identity within the group, which leads to stability within it. Rosas cites the example of the La Familia Michoacana, which considers its murders 'social cleansings,' committed not by human beings, but rather, by divine justice. He further states that criminal organizations in Mexico are following the pattern that has been used by armed groups with political or ideological goals such as those in the Middle East." Link to Full Article

Analysis: El Universal also published three other articles on the same day (June 23rd) with a similar theme, titled "Weddings and funerals, ideal for capturing kingpins," "Some believe la Santa Muerte protects them," and "Faith and the saints, supporters of narcotraffickers." This concept shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as Mexico has been a predominantly Catholic nation since its colonization in 1521. Some people may think that criminals who produce, transport, and sell drugs, murder others with assault weapons, and hold hostages for ransom couldn't possibly believe in God and the saints. Yet, if al-Qa'ida can justify their actions by claiming their faith, why can't narcos in Mexico? Take that statement with caution, however; terrorist groups engage in murder and other activities because of God, whereas DTOs engage in murder and their activities because of monetary gain and in spite of God. Big difference.

Using religion as a recruiting tool is ingenious, and I'm wondering if DTOs came up with that idea on their own or pulled it from other successful criminal (or terrorist) groups that have done the same. Most youths who join the DTOs either have few honest prospects for supporting themselves, or are drawn into the "glamourous" life of expensive cars, clothes, women, and guns. Once they join though, that good old Catholic guilt can be a pretty strong force. Using la Santa Muerte and religious principles in general to recruit, discipline, motivate, and assuage new members and hitmen can be very effective, as La Familia Michoacana has shown.

"Mexican drug cartels 'hide in plain sight' in U.S."

Here is an excerpt from Ben Conery's article in The Washington Times:

"Angel Haro-Perez, the Atlanta head of the Gulf Cartel, is typical of cartel members and associates working in the U.S.: They keep a low profile, avoid violence and work quietly to traffic tons of drugs — cocaine, heroin, marijuana and methamphetamine — into the U.S. while smuggling billions of dollars back across the border. And they do it while remaining virtually invisible to the community and general public... Just northeast of Atlanta, Gwinnett County,  where Mr. Haro-Perez was arrested, has become a ground zero of sorts for Mexican drug cartels, according to authorities. The county's population has more than doubled since 1990, and authorities say the Hispanic, particularly Mexican, population has exploded with a mixture of both legal and illegal immigrants. According to U.S. Census data, Hispanics made up less than 2.5 percent of Gwinnett County's population in 1990, a number that increased to 11 percent in 2000 and was up to 16 percent by 2007. 'We emphasize that the vast majority of those people have nothing to do with drug dealing, but what they do is they allow the Mexican cartels, almost all of whose operatives are Mexican, to hide in plain sight,' [U.S. Attorney David] Nahmias said. Fifteen years ago, he said, four young Hispanic men coming in and out of a house at all hours of the night might make neighbors suspicious. Now they could be painters or construction workers, and there could be 10 other households like theirs on a street." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Although this article focuses on Atlanta - and rightfully so, as it's a major drug distribution hub - the same concerns can be applied to dozens, if not hundreds, of metropolitan areas AND small towns across the US. Migration patterns can't be disputed, and it is creating environments in more and more places where DTO members and their associates - namely, Hispanic gang members - can blend in easily. The key to their success has been the avoidance of trappings which DTO members in Mexico usually enjoy: tricked-out and armored vehicles, jewelry, bodyguards, expensive clothes, etc. DTO members in the US appear to be all business and no play, and that mindset has benefitted them greatly.

Despite their subtlety in business matters on US soil, Mexican DTOs have brought some of the violence of their work deeper into US territory than most people suspect. As the article mentions, DTO-related murders and kidnappings have occurred in places like Phoenix, Atlanta, and even small towns in Alabama. A raid on a gang in Omaha, Nebraska recently uncovered their plan to sell high-powered military-grade guns to Mexican DTOs. The article also mentions that violence levels associated with DTO activity in the US remains low, and DTO members seem to be content to just conduct their business quietly. That's all well and good, but I felt not enough focus was placed on the challenges being placed on state and local law enforcement by the presence of these distributors in their cities. There is some mention of wiretaps and surveillance being conducted, but not much more regarding to effort to detect these networks and dismantle them. If I were a reader living in a city with a sizeable Hispanic population (which I happen to be), I'd wonder what my Sheriff and local cops were doing to find out if this sort of thing was happening in my area, and how to prevent it from getting here (or getting worse).

"Arrests 'Major' Blow To Trans-National Gangs."

Here is an excerpt from this article on KETV.com:

"Authorities said they arrested 36 gang members and seized 69 weapons in Omaha and Lincoln Tuesday in a sweeping investigation that officials said dismantled the metro area's role in a  trans-national gang. The weapons included 14 assault rifles and a Barrett .50-caliber sniper rifle that were sold to a government informant who told the gang members he planned to ship them to Mexico where they'd be used to arm Mexican drug cartels. Law enforcement officials said it was the biggest gun bust in Omaha history and a major blow to the Serenos street gang." Link to Full Article

Analysis: I'm going to keep this post short and sweet because there's only one thing I want to point out. The .50-caliber sniper rifle mentioned in the story was seized in NEBRASKA and sold by a GANG MEMBER to an informant. It was not purchased in Central America or China or Romania or some former Soviet-bloc country. I grow increasingly frustrated with journalists and so-called analysts that believe military-grade hardware and most other firearms used by DTOs don't actually come from the US, as the US government claims. While I acknowledge that we'll never know the true percentage, this is a great example of how the weapons trafficking problem is NOT exclusive to the southwest border states, and involves even midwest gang members. Huge kudos to Omaha law enforcement for this bust, and I hope we see many more across the country.

"How Mexico's drug war washed up on Canada's West Coast" and "British Columbia or Colombia?"

Here is an excerpt from Linda Diebel's article in The Star:

"While the U.S. Attorney General's Office calls the Mexican drug cartels a "national security threat" and says 230 American cities have been infiltrated, the port city of Vancouver may be  Canada's first to feel the fallout from the crackdown on Mexico's drug lords. Already this year in the Vancouver area – nicknamed the gang capital of Canada – there have been 30 shootings (with 12 fatalities) directly linked to the gang shakeout in Mexico and tracked by the Washington-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs. Some 130 gangs operate in B.C., among them Red Scorpions, United Nations, MS-13, Bacon Brothers, Hells Angels and various independents – all with ties of varying degrees to lucrative Mexican cocaine, among other drugs from other places... In Vancouver, police are witnessing an escalation in the brutality of killings. Recently, in an apparently targeted hit, a gangster shot a young mother in her car as her 4-year-old sat in the back seat. Once, such actions were forbidden by established drug protocol. Now, collateral damage is routine in the slaughterhouse of gangland hits." Link to Full Article

Here is an excerpt from the second article, which appeared in The Economist:

"Canada remains one of the world’s safest countries but in recent years Vancouver, BC’s largest city, has gained notoriety for gun crime, especially among drug gangs. Since 1997 nearly 450 gangsters have been killed there. The surge in shootings is “directly related” to a crackdown on gangs in Mexico and the United States, says Pat Fogarty, a senior officer in the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Recent arrests by the three countries’ police forces have disrupted a Mexican-run cocaine distribution chain, leaving Vancouver’s street dealers fighting to secure their supplies. “The price goes up and the guns come out,” says Mr Fogarty. Vancouver has become a distribution hub in a global drugs trade stretching to Asia and Europe. Local gangs ship out cannabis, amphetamines and ecstasy made in BC, importing cocaine, heroin and guns for the Canadian market. Around 135 gangs are thought to be fighting over a business worth an estimated C$7 billion ($6.2 billion) a year." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Normally I comment on one news article at a time, but these two are intrinsically related. The stories are also reported in both a metropolitan newspaper and a global periodical, which draws more attention to the story. I was interested in this topic because you don't read much about our northern neighbor when it comes to drug wars, and especially not in the context of Mexican DTOs and gang warfare. I've been following Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, on and off for the past few years and I knew they had a presence in British Columbia (and Canada in general). I wanted to get the Canadian perspective because, compared to gang violence and DTO activity in certain US cities, the problems in Vancouver didn't seem serious enough at first to merit such grim headlines. I even spent a week in Vancouver a couple of years ago, and although I was told about and witnessed first-hand the drug culture in some areas of the city, it struck me overall as a nice place that I'd want to visit again. So, to get that Canadian perspective, I contacted Dr. James Creechan, a sociology professor with a criminology specialty/interest. He's taught at the University of Alberta for most of his career, and occasionally teaches at the University of Toronto, Queen's University, and the University of Guelph, with adjunct privileges at the Autonomous University of Sinaloa-Culiacan. He currently is teaching a class on the violence and drug war in Mexico, so I thought he'd be the perfect person to provide some context on this issue. What follows is my paraphrasing of his comments. 

Canadian cities— especially major metropolitan areas of Vancouver, Toronto & Montreal— have never had gang related problems similar to those in most US cities... There are no equivalent programs like the NCJS gang surveys etc. Canadian homicide levels are also low — approximately 540 total homicides in all of Canada last year. Only some of those (less than 30%) of those are linked to gangs. But, Canadians aren’t accustomed to reading that gang hits are taking place, and a few extra-ordinary incidents (by Canadian standards) over the past few years have garnered national attention. In [British Columbia], a drug related gangland hit inside of a condo raised concerns last year, especially when one of the victims was in the wrong place at the wrong time (doing maintenance). In Toronto, there have been several drive-by shootings and gang hits captured on video-tape. The most notorious case involved a shooting on Boxing Day (Dec. 26) where two gangs shot it out in downtown Toronto and a young high school girl was killed. Things have gotten worse by a degree that is intolerable to Canadians and this has led to demands for government action before things get even worse... It’s a slippery slope once drug gangs, and a culture of drug gangs establish a foothold. Another factor to consider is the lack of hard news about drug wars. Until recently, there was little coverage of narco wars in Mexico. The sensationalism in The Star can be attributed to the fact that similar incidents have not been widely reported to a significant degree... It’s also clear that information is dated and overstated in sections. 

The Canadian character is hard to nail down with certainty, but one important “subterranean value” is that Canadians generally believe that “We are not American” and “We do not want to become more like Americans."  This view, “we’re not you,” means that Canadians do have concretely different views about crime and violence. Guns are not widely available [there]. There is a Canadian gun registry (...even if it is a political hot potato). Basically, Canadians read about a growing gang problem and believe that it’s an indicator that Canada might eventually have the same kind of problems that Canadians believe exist in Los Angeles, Miami etc. unless [they] act hard and fast.

"Grisly slayings brings Mexican drug war to US."

Here is an excerpt from Pauline Arrillaga's Associated Press article:

"Shelby County Sheriff Chris Curry found out firsthand what federal drug enforcement agents have long understood. The drug war, with the savagery it brings, knows no bounds. It had landed in his back yard, in the foothills of the Appalachians, in Alabama's wealthiest county, around the corner from The Home Depot... Five men dead in an apartment in a county that might see five homicides in an entire year... Some of the men showed signs of torture: Burns seared into their earlobes revealed where modified jumper cables had been clamped as an improvised electrocution device. Adhesive from duct tape used to bind the victims still clung to wrists and faces, from mouths to noses... It didn't take long for Curry and federal agents to piece together clues: A murder scene, clean save for the crimson-turned-brown stains now spotting the carpet. Just a couple of mattresses tossed on the floor. It was a typical stash house... Now the cartels have brought the fight to us: In 230 U.S. cities, the Mexican organizations maintain distribution hubs or supply drugs to local distributors, according to the Justice Department's National Drug Intelligence Center... What's new is where that violence is erupting, where distribution cells and hubs and sub-hubs have surfaced. How an apartment in Alabama became the site of a drug hit in many ways tells the story of the narco-trade in America in 2009, and of the challenges we face in combatting a blight that has spread to big cities and small all across the land."  Link to Full Article

Analysis: This is a really great article, and it approaches the border violence "spillover" phenomenon from a non oft-explored angle - border violence that's happening far away from the border. It's public knowledge that Mexican DTOs have been operating in hundreds of American towns and cities, and the media has been publicizing that a little more as of late. However, you don't hear many news stories of drug-related murders in small towns in the southeast or midwest US. I imagine the local news carry those items more than the national audience will never know, and as the article says, the locals in those towns are very concerned and starting to become afraid of the spread of narco-violence away from the southwest border.

I like that the author explained how easy it is for DTO associated in the US to blend into the population because of the growing Hispanic population in more rural areas. One thing she doesn't mention is the DTOs' affiliation with US based gangs and the violence in US cities that arises from that relationship. Unfortunately, this is where some definitions of DTO-related violence gets gray and hazy. US-based gangs distribute the drugs that are smuggled into the US by DTOs. Often, US-based gangs are contracted by the DTOs to carry out executions inside the US. When a gang member murders someone in Texas on behalf of a DTO, should we classify that as DTO-related violence? Gang violence? Or just a "simple" murder? Defining spillover, which was already complicated and considerably nebulous, is even more difficult when you take geography and gang activity into consideration.

I'm a huge fan of George Friedman's and Strategic Forecasting in general, so I was happy to see he was quoted in this article - it lends a lot of credence. And yes, what's going on in Mexico is more of a mess than a war sometimes. Endemic corruption is an institutional problem, not something that can be ameliorated with better policing - especially when police are the problem. As long as the demand for drugs in the US is fueling DTO business in Mexico, and as long as corruption and fear of DTO retribution fuels DTO business in Mexico, the war AND the mess will continue on both sides of the border and beyond.

"Mexico says gang sold stolen oil to US refineries."

Here is an excerpt from this Associated Press story in The Miami Herald:

"Police in northern Mexico caught a gang that allegedly stole oil from state-owned pipelines and smuggled it across the border to sell it to U.S. refineries, authorities said Tuesday. Federal police commissioner Rodrigo Esparza says the gang made protection payments to the Gulf drug cartel and its Zeta hitmen. 'The oil was sold to several refineries in the United States and they (the gang) received payments that were triangulated through various accounts to hide the origin of the money,' Esparza said. He did not identify the U.S. refineries that bought the oil. Prosecutors say they froze 149 bank accounts and detected bank transfers of over $46 million related to the scheme, in which the oil was smuggled across the border in tanker trucks with false import documents." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Unfortunately, this story begs more questions than it answers. Let's address each aspect one at a time, starting with the theft of the oil. Crude oil theft is common in some places more than others, such as Nigeria, which loses around $1.5 billion to crude oil theft every year. However, it doesn't seem to be common at all in Mexico. The story doesn't detail how the gang removed the oil from the pipeline and transferred it to the tanker, although it's always possible there was some involvement by or assistance from oil company employees. Assuming this gang had the knowledge and expertise to acquire the crude, I'm pretty skeptical of the false import documents they supposedly used to get into the US. Anyone driving a commerical vehicle from Mexico into the US needs more than just an import documents. They need a CBP Form I-94 to record their arrival and departure, a commercial trucking license, and other documentation that is not easy to slip past CBP - especially for a tanker carrying crude oil, which is conspicuous. Finally, Esparza declined to mention which US refineries bought the oil. I'm no expert on the oil business, but I have a hard time believing a US oil refinery would purchase crude oil in this fashion as a matter of course. It appears that most US refineries obtain their crude oil through pipelines or marine transport. How a Mexican gang would infiltrate this system, which I have a feeling is tightly controlled, is beyond my understanding.

Finally, $46 million is a sizeable figure, and I'm amazed that a Mexican gang would be pulling in that kind of money from such a scheme. One of the parts of the story that does make sense is that the gang would need to pay the Gulf cartel and/or Los Zetas a nice sum in order to conduct such business, and such a lucrative-sounding one, at that. Overall, I'm skeptical about the story for a number of reasons. However, if it's true, then Mexican criminals are indeed getting more creative and taking much higher risks in order to survive.

"Guatemala finds Mexico drug smuggler training camp."

Here is an excerpt from Sarah Grainger's article on Reuters.com:

"Guatemalan security forces have discovered a camp run by Mexico's most violent drug gang where traffickers trained dozens of gunmen, police said on Friday. Security forces were tipped off about suspicious activity at a ranch in Quiche, in the central highlands, by residents who said men in ski masks were asking villagers to join their ranks... Two commanders of the Zetas, the armed wing of Mexico's Gulf cartel, and 37 recruits fled the camp before the police and army arrived, leaving behind 500 grenades, six rifles and hundreds of rounds of ammunition... Guatemalan authorities, helped by personnel from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, also found an illegal airstrip, an obstacle course and equipment for practicing shooting at moving targets... Police believe a series of attacks on buses in Guatemala City in the past week were orchestrated by the Zetas to distract attention from the border where they had been shipping illegal arms and drugs into and out of the country." Link to Full Article

Analysis: We've seen this type off off-site training many times before, but it's normally associated with terrorist organizations like al-Qa'ida and the FARC. This is a classic example of how Mexican DTOs use the same techniques, tactics, and procedures as terrorist groups. The attacks on the buses are particularly disturbing. According to an article by Air Security International, youth gangs killed at least one passenger and one passerby, and injured seven other people, including a police officer and a bus driver. Guatemalan authorities believe that criminal organizations hired the youth gangs to extort money from drivers in exchange for safe passage. Despite the inherent terrorist nature of these training activities and attacks on civilians, DTOs continue to be regarded as mere organized crime groups. Until DTOs can be recategorized or redefinedin a way that truly captures their brutality and disregard for human life, insufficient resources will be allocated by both the Mexican and US governments to combat DTO-related violence.

"New front in war on drug gangs."

Here is an excerpt from Sandra Dibble's article in the San Diego Union-Tribune:

"As Mexican authorities wage war on drug gangs, they have opened a new front: the small   shrines and chapels where criminals are said to seek protection from La Santa Muerte, a popular saint not sanctioned by the Catholic Church whose name means Saint Death... Critics say destroying the chapels – with their flickering candles, collection boxes and statues of La Santa Muerte – do little to quell the drug-related violence plaguing Mexico, and violate the freedom of worship guaranteed in Mexico's constitution. Authorities defend their actions as necessary steps to weaken the grip of drug culture on Mexican society that reflects itself through song lyrics, video images and television newscasts, and the shrines where some traffickers worship." Link to Full Article 

Analysis: I found this article really interesting, and right away it brought to mind two instances where the shunning of certain "negative" cultural things either didn't work or completely backfired. The first case occurred in Cuba in the early 1500s when slaves were brought from Africa by the Spaniards. They had their own religion - the worship of the Orisha - which was shunned by the very Catholic Spaniards. They were eventually prohibited from practicing their religion and more or less forced to convert to Catholicism. The Africans weren't much interested in that, so they got creative. They renamed all their Orisha gods with the names of Catholic saints to give the impression they were practicing Catholicism, and Santeria was born.

The next example that comes to mind is gangsta rap. This is probably the closest American example to Mexican narcocorridos. It was made popular in the 1980s by performers like Ice-T and N.W.A., and glamorized the American gangster lifestyle. While gangsta rap was never outlawed, the genre (along with heavy metal and other non-popular musical genres) became one of the many targets of the Parents Music Resource Center (PMRC) because of the extensive use of explicit lyrics and references to killing, rape, and other unsavory social practices. Despite efforts towards censorship and the general controversy surrounding gangsta rap, it became the most financially lucrative subgenre of hip-hop.

I understand the Mexican government's reasoning behind the destruction of these shrines and the outlawing of narcocorridos, but in the case of the former, I think the action might do more harm than good. The freedom of non-criminals to worship their religion as they please is being negatively affected, and criminals are still going to create their own private shrines or worship La Santa Muerte wherever they please. I'm concerned that the repercussions of these actions are going to hurt the Mexican government's standing in the eyes of the people at a time when they need the people's support the most.

"Mexico drug cartels buying public support."

Here is an excerpt from Tracy Wilkinson's article in the Los Angeles Times:

"The small houses of the Independencia neighborhood climb a hill that rises from the bone-dry Santa Catarina riverbed. Gang graffiti proliferate the higher you go, until they completely cover the cinder-block walls with slogans, threats and declarations...It is here that Mexico's biggest drug traffickers find an easy following of collaborators and pliable disciples. This is the traffickers' so-called social base: people loyal out of economics more than anything else, people who peddle the drugs and eagerly turn out when the traffickers want to mount street demonstrations against the government and the army. Independencia is distinctive among Monterrey's marginal neighborhoods, community activists say, because it is home to generations of small-time drug dealers, and because it has been penetrated in the last two years by agents of the Gulf cartel, one of Mexico's most notorious and violent trafficking organizations. Those traffickers demonstrated their pull in this neighborhood last month when they paid residents to block Monterrey's major thoroughfares with hours-long demonstrations, day after day for two weeks." Link to Full Article

The reason this behavior by the DTOs is so disturbing is because it is so reminiscent of guerrilla (a.k.a. terrorist) groups operating elsewhere in Latin America - in some cases, as far back as the 1920s. One of the fundamental tenets of guerrilla warfare is to obtain the support of the people. Historically in Latin America (e.g. Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua), this support has come from peasants living in rural areas, and without it, many revolutions might have failed. In Nicaragua in the 1920s and 1930s, Augusto Sandino gained support from the rural populace, and it allowed him to wage an almost-successful campaign against the US Marine Corp. He had villages from which to recruit guerrilla fighters, use for logistical support, and use for a place to rest and regroup. In Colombia, the FARC and ELN have relied on similar support from like-minded peasants, although that support is diminshing. Often, popular support is gained through a combination of general discontent with the government by the populace and propaganda efforts by the guerrillas. This combination has led to bloody revolutions and drawn-out insurgencies in many Latin American countries in the last few decades.

The use of propaganda by Mexican DTOs - specifically banners that tell the Mexican people their government can't protect them - and bribes to obtain public support is not a good sign of things to come. However, the situation is a little different in Mexico than the examples I listed above. There are portions of the populace that are unhappy with the Mexican army and with the Calderon administration This does not automatically mean these people automatically back the DTOs; they usually despise the DTOs even more. The concern is the young people Wilkinson mentions in her article who are poor with no prospects, and are willing to accept small bribes or small drug dealing jobs in exchange for showing up at a demonstration. The effect of such mass protest is often the same, regardless of how or why the protesters got there. Similar to guerrilla groups, these adolescents provide ripe recruiting grounds for the DTOs to hire thugs, and towns like Independencia provide safe haven for DTOs to conduct criminal activity, rest, and regroup. This is just another example of why putting Mexican DTOs in the simple category of "organized crime" is outdated and wholly inappropriate.

"The Enemy Within: Cartel-related violence has moved well beyond American border towns."

Here is an excerpt from Eve Conant and Arian Campos-Flores' article in Newsweek:

"Surprising as it may seem, Phoenix has become America's kidnapping capital. Last year 368 abductions were reported, compared with 117 in 2000. Police say the real number is likely much higher, since many go unreported. Though in the past most of the nabbings stemmed from domestic-violence incidents, now the majority are linked to drug-trafficking and human-smuggling operations that pervade the Arizona corridor. It's still unclear to what extent the snatchings are being directly ordered by Mexican cartels, but authorities say they're undoubtedly a byproduct of the drug-fueled mayhem south of the border. "The tactics are moving north," says assistant police chief Andy Anderson. "We don't have the violence they have in Mexico yet—the killing of police officers and the beheadings—but in terms of kidnappings and home invasions, it has come." Link to Full Article

Analysis: This is one of the better articles I've read lately on the anecdotal/case evidence aspect of border violence spillover (for more on this topic, click HERE). It mostly covers kidnappings in Phoenix with a great amount of detail and first-hand accounts, which makes for good reading and high impact on the reader. It also talks about the presence of DTO members or associates in other parts of the country nowhere close to the southwest border, like Alabama and North Carolina. It's disconcerting to read about kidnap victims being gagged and tortured in safehouses thousands of miles away from where we would expect that to be happening.

There are two main points I'd like to make about this excellent article. First, it makes clear to the reader that the majority of victims involved are involved in the drug trade. I particularly like the quote from a law enforcement officer who explains that many times, kidnap victims are rescued by the police, then go straight from the place they were being held to jail to await trial for the crimes they committed. Second, this article reinforces one of the points I make in my IN FOCUS segment on spillover- specifically, the point that some agencies view spillover as DTO-related criminal activity occurring within the US. This article clearly shows that the law enforcement individuals interviewed believe spillover is happening, despite any statistical evidence or "official" statements to the contrary.

IN FOCUS: Border violence "spillover"

This is a topic that causes frustration because the term "spillover" is used by so many people and agencies with little consistency or agreement. On almost any given day, you can see several government or law enforcement officials on television saying spillover hasn't happened yet, spillover is happening now, or spillover has been happening for years. So which is it?

Well, the problem lies in the fact that there is no single, standardized definition for border violence spillover. Some agencies are looking for spikes in crime levels on the US side that parallel spikes in crime on the Mexican side. Other agencies are basing their assessments of spillover on case information or anecdotal evidence of Mexican DTO-related crimes occurring in US cities, such as targeted killings or kidnappings. Some officials won't call it spillover unless innocent US citizens (i.e. unrelated to the drug trade) on US territory become DTO targets.

First, let's examine the crime statistics angle. One can assume that crime statistics originating from US law enforcement agencies are reliable because agencies on the US side of the border don't suffer from the same corruption issues as Mexican agencies. However, US crime statistics generally don't differentiate between drug-related and non-drug related crimes. It is entirely possible that murders for a US border city could drop from one year to the next, yet the proportion of drug-related murders can rise in the same year. Also, statistics alone don't account for sociological factors occurring in border cities that may skew the meaning of those statistics, such as changes in immigration patterns or economic declines. Finally, crime statistics for cities on the Mexican side of the border are notoriously inaccurate for various reasons, including corruption, lack of reporting, and investigative ineptitude. Mexican crime statistics also do not differentiate between drug-related and non-drug-related crimes.

Next, let's consider case information or anecdotal evidence. We know from publicly available information that the FBI is investigating an increasing number of cross-border kidnapping cases. We also know that hundreds of people in the southwest border states - mostly affiliated with the DTOs in come way - have been kidnapped for ransom or retribution. According to the US Department of Justice, several US-based gangs are affiliated with Mexican DTOs, either distributing drugs for them or contracting themselves out for hits inside the United States. Depending on which source you believe, anywhere from 90-97% of weapons illegally entering Mexico originate in the United States, with most of them coming from the four southwest border states. So does all this criminal activity that seems obviously related to the Mexican drug trade add up to spillover?

Finally, let's take a look at the US-citizens-as-targets issue. There is almost universal agreement among agencies that in almost all cases of border violence, US citizens NOT associated with the Mexican drug trade in any way, shape, or form are NOT being targeted for violence by DTOs or US-based gangs affilated with DTOs. Occasionally, innocent US citizens do get caught in the cross-fire, but usually it's a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Does this mean that spillover is NOT happening?

Ultimately the issue of border violence spillover is a subjective one, and I believe it can't be proven one way or another. I think a strong argument can be made for either position. However the next time you see or hear someone authoritatively trying to say spillover is happening or isn't happening, ask them what their sources are or what proof they have...I'd sure love to see it.