Mexico's Drug War

Cartel Kingpin Arrest Signals the End of an Era for Mexican Drug War

The arrest on Saturday morning of the Sinaloa cartel’s front man, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán, was not just a victory for the Mexican government. It foretold the end of the mafia-esque era of “old school” drug cartels that characterized several decades in the history of Mexican drug trafficking. The future narco landscape is now littered with roughly 80 smaller gangs and mini cartels that are fighting to the death for their share of the multi-billion dollar illegal drug business.

Cartels like the Sinaloa Federation formerly run by El Chapo were a family business in the 1980s and 1990s. All of them go back to one main drug trafficking organization in Mexico known as the Guadalajara cartel. It was split up into a few pieces in 1987, and its remnants still exist today as the Tijuana, Juárez, and Sinaloa cartels. The Gulf cartel in the northeast corner of Mexico developed independently at around the same time frame, but is a shadow of its former self, much like the Tijuana and Juárez cartels.

The two bulwarks remaining today are Guzmán’s organization and Los Zetas, a group that started out as a private army for the Gulf cartel, but then went independent in 2010 as drug traffickers and bloodthirsty killers willing to target innocent people in their greedy quest for profits. But even Los Zetas, as large and powerful as they are, have started to show some major cracks, and the Sinaloa Federation has been hit particularly hard by the Mexican government in recent weeks. 

To read the rest of my article on Breitbart Texas, please CLICK HERE!

"Other kingpin in DEA killing may be freed."

Here is an excerpt from the Associated Press article in the Arizona Daily Star:

"Defense attorneys believe freedom is imminent for a second member of the trio of Mexican drug kingpins responsible for the 1985 slaying of a Drug Enforcement Administration agent (Kiki Camarena, pictured), one of the capo's attorneys said Saturday. In the U.S., outrage grew over this week's surprise decision to overturn Mexican drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero's conviction in the notorious killing. Caro Quintero walked free Friday after a federal court overturned his 40-year sentence in agent Enrique "Kiki" Camarena's kidnapping, torture and murder. The three-judge appeals court in the western state of Jalisco ordered Caro Quintero's immediate release on procedural grounds after 28 years behind bars, saying he should have originally been prosecuted in state instead of federal court. Also imprisoned in the Camarena case are Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo and Miguel Angel Felix Gallardo, two of the founding fathers of modern Mexican drug trafficking, whose cartel based in the northwestern state of Sinaloa later split into some of Mexico's largest drug organizations. Fonseca Carrillo's attorney, Jose Luis Guizar, said his team had filed an appeal based on the same procedural grounds used by Caro Quintero, and expected him to be freed within 15 days by a different court in Jalisco." Link to Full Article

Analysis: For those of you who aren't too familiar with the history of drug trafficking in Mexico, Caro Quintero, Fonseca Carrillo and Félix Gallardo form the narco "holy trinity" that ran the Guadalajara cartel in the 1970s and 1980s. In 1985, Caro Quintero was arrested in Costa Rica and extradited to Mexico, and Fonseca Carrillo was apprehended in Puerto Vallarta by the Mexican army. Félix Gallardo stayed out of the reach of authorities the longest, arrested in 1989 in Mexico but continued running trafficking operations by cell phone until he was transferred to the maximum security prison in Altiplano in the 1990s.

Their involvement in Kiki Camarena's murder wasn't a casual affair. Camarena was working undercover against the cartel for several years. In 1985, he identified a large marijuana growing operation at the cartel's Rancho Bufalo and pressured the Mexican government to stop it. The ranch was raided and the operation came to an end - resulting in Quintero and Carrillo's arrest shortly thereafter - but it wasn't long before the three capos realized Camarena was the infiltrator who game their operation away. Their henchmen kidnapped Camarena in broad daylight while he was on his way to meet his wife for lunch. He was tortured extensively before being killed and buried in a shallow Mexican grave.

The impact of Camarena's disappearance on US-Mexico relations was severe. US Customs brought cross-border traffic to a virtual halt as they searched every vehicle entering the US for signs of Camarena's whereabouts. The pressure on the Mexican government to find him and hold the three Guadalajara cartel leaders accountable was enormous, and a task that then-President (and PRI member) Miguel de la Madrid probably wasn't too enthusiastic about. But despite the fact the three capos were captured and later incarcerated, the cartel lived on. Félix Gallardo knew his time as a free man was limited, and he split up the Guadalajara cartel into some of the TCOs we know now - the Arellano Félix Organization, the Sinaloa cartel and the Carrillo Fuentes Organization.

To say that DEA personnel in the US are angry about Caro Quintero's release - and the potential release of Fonseca Carrillo, and maybe even Félix Gallardo - is an understatement. While it's admirable that the Mexican government is trying to follow the letter of the law, one has to ask why this is happening now, a full 28 years after they were imprisoned, and not back then. The US wants Caro Quintero extradited so he can face criminal charges here, but his whereabouts are already unknown. Releasing Carrillo and Gallardo will be another huge slap in the face to the US government, which has frustratingly remained relatively silent after ICE Special Agent Jaime Zapata was killed by Los Zetas in 2011 and two CIA employees were attacked by dirty federales in late 2012.

The next question becomes, what danger can these men pose after being mostly out of the game for 28 years? Some reports are saying they were still running some operations out of prison, but it's not necessarily the same as physically being in the mix - especially considering their former Guadalajara cartel is in various states of disrepair across the country. Would they join up with Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán and his Sinaloa Federation since his organization is the most solid? Or just seek a quiet and anonymous retirement in Yucatán or Los Cabos?

I don't think Caro Quintero's release is upsetting to the US because he poses a potential danger, but because it represents a distortion of justice in a murder case that, even 28 years later, is still an extremely sensitive issue for the DEA and the US government in general. The level of cooperation between our two governments has never been better, but it has been noticeable cooling off since Enrique Peña Nieto took office last December. Intelligence sharing has been restricted from the Mexican side, and now this happens without even a heads up being provided. Mind you, that would have just been a courtesy and not a requirement. The Mexican government can do what it wants, but it's still a snub considering the years-long rhetoric about drug war collaboration.

Bottom line, I wouldn't be surprised if both Fonseca Carrillo and Félix Gallardo are released soon. Maybe they'll get back into the trafficking mix, and maybe they'll just go silently into the night to enjoy their freedom while it lasts. I can't tell from the latest reports if they're going to be indicted under state authority (which I guess is what should have happened in the first place) or if the Mexican government is going to work on extradition orders. But as the article's subtitle states, "US unlikely to pressure Mexico if latest appeal is granted." I think the DEA is going to have to learn to live with the 28 years these men have served as the best justice they're going to get for Camarena's murder.

Zetas Leader Miguel "Z-40" Treviño Morales Captured in Nuevo Laredo

Or so we believe. This news is breaking all over as I type, so this post is subject to updating as more information comes in. A report from the San Antonio Express-News has some more detail than the other early reports, despite the fact that the Dallas Morning News was the first US source I saw cited. From what I'm able to gather from multiple (and sometimes contradictory) US and Mexican sources, Treviño was captured during a shootout with Mexican marines in the border city of Nuevo Laredo. He's wanted in the US on five murder charges and is reportedly behind at least 2,000 killings. Treviño is also "accused of smuggling tons of cocaine and marijuana into the U.S. and laundering tens of millions of dollars here through a number of businesses, including horse racing and real estate." Z-40 has been in charge of Los Zetas since his predecessor, Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano was killed in October 2012.

Analysis: So now the question becomes, who will be in charge? And what effect will Treviño's death have on Los Zetas as an organization, as well as their war with the Sinaloa Federation? We were all actually asking these same questions when El Lazca was killed, although the situation was slightly different. Lazcano had handed off most of the TCO's operational aspects to Treviño before he was killed, so he was in a figurehead position for the most part. There were some adjustments at the upper levels because the two men have (had) different leadership styles, but I wasn't made aware of any significant shifts in trafficking patterns or hubs of violence.

In this case, Treviño had a very hands-on operational role; not only as Zetas leader, but head of one of the most lucrative border plazas in Nuevo Laredo, his home base. It's important to remember that Los Zetas aren't organized in a hierarchichal fashion, but work more like a franchise operation. Each cell operates more or less independently, and cell/plaza leaders can determine what criminal activities they'll engage in based on local conditions. There isn't as much direction coming from the top as there is in TCOs like the Sinaloa Federation or the Arellano Félix Organization, so as long as Z-40 is replaced quickly with someone the plaza bosses have confidence in, his capture may only be a speed bump.

Right now I'm looking at his brother and right hand man, Oscár Omar "Z-42" Treviño Morales, who also goes by Alejandro. He's a nasty piece of work in his own right, heavily involved in drug trafficking, kidnapping, and murder, and wanted for US$5 million - the same reward offered for brother Miguel. Back in 2012, Mexican newspaper La Jornada identified him as the #3 man in Los Zetas, and said he was responsible for negotiating the Zetas' supply of Colombian cocaine and precursor chemicals for making methamphetamine. I think Omar/Alejandro would be perfectly capable of taking the Zetas helm, but there may be other plaza bosses who feel the same about themselves. This is where the cell structure is to the disadvantage of the organization as a whole; loyalties in Los Zetas are much more fickle than they are in family-run or "old school" TCOs, although loyalty to a kingpin is never really guaranteed. It's always possible that the bloodbath to fill Z-40's position could begin any day now, although I'm not convinced that's going to be the definitive route for Los Zetas.

One man who is most certainly doing a happy dance is Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán, head of the Federation. I'm not sure how well he'll be able to exploit Z-40's capture, since El Lazca's death didn't deal him a huge benefit. However, because Treviño has a much bigger and active role in Los Zetas than El Lazca did when he was killed, there's a better chance El Chapo could see this as the perfect time to strike. Guzmán and Los Zetas have been fighting over Nuevo Laredo since 2004, and the city could now be perceived as ripe for the picking. This is why it's crucial for Omar/Alejandro or someone else to step up and step in as quickly and seamlessly as possible with a strong show of leadership and strength if violence during this transition is to be minimized. Only the body count in the days and weeks ahead will be a real indicator of how smoothly (or not) the Zetas' recovery is going.

"Three Defendants Plead Guilty to Participating in Ambush Murder and Attempted Murder of ICE Agents in Mexico."

Here's an excerpt from the Department of Justice press release:

"Julian Zapata Espinoza, also known as “Piolin,” 32, pleaded guilty today to the murder of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Special Agent Jaime Zapata and the attempted murder of ICE Special Agent Victor Avila in Mexico. The court also unsealed today the guilty pleas of three other defendants on related murder, attempted murder, racketeering, and accessory charges... As set forth in court filings, on February 15, 2011, Espinoza, a commander in Los Zetas Cartel, a heavily armed Mexican narco-trafficking cartel and transnational criminal organization, attempted to hijack Special Agent Zapata’s and Special Agent Avila’s armored government vehicle as the agents were driving on Highway 57 in San Luis Potosi. Two armed Zetas hit squads, or “estacas,” forced the agents off the road, and surrounded their vehicle. Espinoza, the leader of the attack, ordered the agents to exit their vehicle. When the agents refused and attempted to identify themselves as American diplomats from the U.S. Embassy, the hit squad members fired weapons near and into the vehicle, striking both agents. Estaca members continued to fire at the vehicle as the agents attempted to escape by driving away. Special Agent Zapata died as a result of the gunshot wounds he suffered during the attack, and Special Agent Avila was seriously injured... As part of their guilty pleas, Espinoza, Rivera, and Villagran admitted to being members of a Los Zetas hit squad and to participating directly in the February 15, 2011 ambush of the two special agents. The fourth defendant, Flores, acknowledged assisting Zetas members after the February 15 attack. All four defendants face a maximum sentence of life in prison. No sentencing date has been set for the defendants." Link to Full Press Release

Analysis: Part of me wants to be happy and relieved that justice has finally been served, and that these Zetas scum are being held accountable for actions the likely took thinking no one could touch them. Another [cynical] side of me wishes I could get a comprehensive summary of the evidence (hopefully) piled against these men that encouraged them to accept a plea deal. 

According to a Brownsville Herald article from last year that talked about El Piolin's hearing getting pushed back to September 2012, "authorities reported to have turned over thousands of pages of discovery for the trial and that thousands more are being processed." I'd like to think all those pages means that there are ample reports from investigators, forensic specialists, crime scene examiners, etc. However, remember that this investigation was conducted in Mexico by mostly Mexican authorities with some US assistance that happened after the fact.

That being said, El Piolin and company already knew they wouldn't get the death sentence by the mere fact that the Mexican government agreed to extradite them. Mexico is very much against the death sentence, and this is a strict condition for extradition of any criminal indicted in the US. They still face a maximum of life in prison, so the obvious thing they would have to gain from a plea deal is a reduced sentence in exchange for providing actionable intelligence on Zetas operations, most likely in the San Luís Potosí area where these men operated.

Does this mean these are actually the men responsible for pulling the trigger and setting up Agents Zapata and Avila? Maybe, maybe not. El Piolin has said up and down that he thought Zapata and Avila were members of a rival cartel, which is patent bullcrap. Could these men have just been fall guys ordered by Los Zetas to take one for the team? That's possible, too. Will their plea deal and subsequent incarceration bring some closure to the Zapata family, ICE, and DHS? Only they can say.

It's possible I'm just too cynical for my own good, and this really is a good news story. But my spidey sense still tells me that these men were captured too quickly, too easily, and 'fessed up too smoothly. This is definitely one of those [rare] times where I hope I'm wrong.

"Why Arresting 'El Chapo' Might Be a Bad Thing."

My apologies for posting this later than I would have liked! Here is an excerpt from my latest piece for Small Wars Journal:

"It sounds crazy, but catching the most notorious and wanted drug trafficker in the world might be a bad thing.

"Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzmán Loera’s empire spans almost half of Mexico, employs, bribes, and kills thousands of people, and rakes in billions of dollars every year from the insatiable American demand for illegal drugs. He has been ranked for the last three years as one of Forbes magazine’s top 100 most powerful people in the world[1], and the US government is offering a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture.[2]

"Guzmán is also a smart and talented businessman, getting involved in the drug business at a very young age under the tutelage of Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo, known as “The Godfather” of Mexican drug trafficking. He was a major player in the original Guadalajara cartel, and was granted his own corridor in Sonora, Mexico when Gallardo divided up his empire in 1987. El Chapo is as “old school” mobster as they come, having built up his transnational criminal organization (TCO), known as the Sinaloa Federation, into one of the richest and most powerful organized crime groups in the Western Hemisphere. So why wouldn’t Mexican and American authorities want him behind bars?"

To read my entire article at SmallWarsJournal.com, please CLICK HERE!

"Mexican Navy Believes It Killed Ruthless Gang Kingpin."

Here's an excerpt from Randal Archibold's article in the New York Times:

"The Mexican Navy said on Monday night that it believed it had killed a man who it thinks may be a founder and the principal leader of the Zetas, one of the most violent criminal gangs to terrorize the country in years. But adding to the confusion, two Mexican newspapers reported the next morning that the corpse had suddenly gone missing. The navy said in a statement that in a battle Sunday afternoon in Coahuila state in northern Mexico between marines and men armed with guns and grenades, two men were killed, one bearing “strong signs” of being Heriberto Lazcano, known as El Lazca and the main leader of the Zetas. The navy said it was conducting forensic tests to positively identify the men, but the prospect of having eliminated one of Mexico’s most wanted criminals led to leaks just before the most-watched evening newscast, which reported the possibility that Mr. Lazcano had been killed... In an odd twist, the two Mexican newspapers reported on Tuesday that the corpse that the authorities believed to be Mr. Lazcano was taken away from a funeral home by armed people or family members. They reported that law enforcement authorities had already taken fingerprints, photographs and other material to aid in the identification, but the loss of the body would surely add to doubts and mystery over the man and the case." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Since I started reviewing all the stories on El Lazca after I woke up and got going this morning, the Mexican navy has confirmed that the man they killed is indeed Lazcano, so my analysis will be based on this confirmation.

First, there should be no question that this is a big victory for the Mexican navy/marines and the Calderón administration. Despite the fact that it seems they more or less lucked out on coming across his location (FOX News Latino said that some locals in Progreso made reports about armed men in the area), I've also seen reports they benefitted from some DEA assistance. If that's true, then I'm happy to see that cross-border intelligence sharing worked here, like it did in Arturo Beltrán Leyva's death in 2009.

That being said, it's going to be a symbolic victory more than anything else. Calderón can say one of the founders and top leaders of Los Zetas was killed on his watch, and this will no doubt be a big morale booster for the military. But we need to take a good look at how El Lazca's death will (or won't) impact operations on the ground.

Rumors of El Lazca's death started well over a year ago in June 2011 when there was a huge firefight in Matamoros. The drug lord was said to have been involved and possibly killed during that firefight, but no solid evidence of his presence ever emerged. We know now he was likely never there, but he essentially disappeared from the radar screen shortly afterwards. Several months later, rumors began that he was terminally ill with some sort of cancer - rumors that, again, were never confirmed. But we do know that Miguel "Z-40" Treviño Morales, the Zetas' #2 man, in effect took control of Los Zetas some time ago. This leadership handover didn't seem like it was the result of any rivalry or intra-TCO dispute.

This ultimately means that El Lazca, while remaining a huge and historic figurehead for Los Zetas, likely had very little actual control over TCO operations in the field. It's even questionable how much real control Treviño has over regional plaza commanders, considering that Los Zetas are set up like a franchise rather than a traditional top-down hierarchy, and Zetas activities are determined by the business environment in each location. The good news is that El Lazca's death probably won't incite any additional violence in the form of a power or territory grab. However, it also means Los Zetas aren't significantly weaker as an organization as a result.

"Mexico nabs ex-Zetas leader 'El Taliban.'"

Here is an excerpt from Dudley Althaus' article in The Houston Chronicle:

"Mexican marines have captured a renegade leader of the Zetas known as El Taliban in the latest blow by the US-backed commando campaign against the violent gang operating south of the Texas border. Ivan Velázquez Caballero, 42, was dragged Wednesday evening from a safe house in a middle class neighborhood in the city of San Luis Potosi. Though accompanied by two bodyguards, Velázquez apparently was seized without a shot being fired... Formerly a senior Zetas lieutenant, Velázquez had broken with the gang's top bosses in recent months, allying himself with remnants of the rival Gulf Cartel and Knights Templar gangs to vie for control of key border cities and smuggling routes... His fall, combined with the Navy's capture this month of two Gulf Cartel leaders, could bolster efforts by Zetas kingpins Miguel Angel Trevíño, known as Z-40, and Heriberto Lazcano to consolidate underworld control along the entire south Texas border... The split between Velázquez and his former Zetas bosses became public in mid-August with the discovery of the bodies of 14 Velázquez gunmen stuffed into a van parked outside San Luis Potosi. Scores also have been killed this month in Nuevo Laredo as the factions battle it out." Link to Full Article

Analysis: The fallout from this arrest can be summed up in three words: What. A. Mess. It's always a good thing when a major TCO kingpin gets arrested - and hopefully extradited - by Mexican authorities, and particularly without a shot being fired in the process. Currently, former CDG kingpin Rafael Cárdenas Vela (nephew of former CDG boss Osiel Cárdenas Guillen) is spilling everything he knows to US authorities during the trial of Juan Roberto Rincon-Rincon, and you'd better believe he'll have something huge to gain from that. I have no doubt Velázquez will be a gold mine of information, probably for both Los Zetas and the CDG.

While that's the good news, the bad news is that his arrest plunges northeast Mexico into even more chaos, if that's even possible. In case you haven't been closely following developments there in the last few months, both Los Zetas and the CDG are undergoing major upheavals. The CDG split into two factions, Los Metros and Los Rojos, over a year ago, and the leaders of both of those factions have recently been arrested. No one really knows who's running the CDG show right now, although some names have been tossed around as likely candidates.

Los Zetas underwent their own split, possibly as far back as April, with one faction falling under Miguel "Z-40" Treviño Morales - who has sort of wrested control of Los Zetas from absent leader Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano Lazcano - and the breakaway group falling under Velázquez. Last week, the news was that "El Taliban/Z-50" had forged an alliance with the CDG, Los Zetas' former employer pre-2010, to do battle against Treviño. But the ink was barely dry on that agreement when Velázquez was picked up a couple of days ago. It's not clear if his faction was strong or organized enough to have a set hierarchy, meaning a designated replacement for Velázquez.

Unfortunately, this means there are more questions than answers: Who is in control of the CDG? Have the two factions reunited? What is the status of the Zetas split now that Z-50 is gone? What is the status of the alliance between Z-50's people and the CDG? All of those issues are kind of unknowns right now.

Just to make things more interesting, let's throw the Sinaloa Federation and Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán into the mix. I told Agence France Presse in an interview yesterday that I think Guzmán is probably laughing his head off at this whole mess right now because he's the only one who can potentially stand to gain from it. Many of us analysts/observers had theorized that the Federation could sweep in to prop up the CDG after the arrest of Jorge "El Coss" Costilla Sánchez in order to fight off Los Zetas - and gain a bigger piece of the lucrative Matamoros plaza. But El Chapo might have even bigger fish to fry if he perceives a major weakness in Los Zetas subsequent to El Taliban's arrest. The CDG still needs his help, without a doubt, but Guzmán may be calculating if his organization is capable of eliminating both Los Zetas and the CDG from large swaths of Tamaulipas in one fell swoop. This would be a herculean task, of course, but he can't complain about the good timing.

Sadly, most of us know by know that uncertainty and instability in the drug war inevitably lead to increased levels of violence. With not just one, but two power vacuums going on, plus possibly three major TCOs fighting for control of the same area of NE Mexico, things are going to get even uglier than they already are. The only things that could alleviate that are if Los Zetas and the CDG decide who is in charge VERY quickly, and/or if El Chapo can take control, either with or without the CDG's help, of Tamaulipas in short order. Stay tuned...

Is Chicago Becoming America’s Ciudad Juárez?

“At least seven people…have been killed and 24 others wounded in a string of shootings in the US city of Chicago in the past two days.” This was one very stark headline the morning of August 26, 2012. The attacks occurred in different parts of the city, with several in the south and west parts of the city. Shockingly, the statistics and incident details were reminiscent of grisly headlines emerging daily from a foreign city 1,500 miles away—Ciudad Juárez, arguably the deadliest place in the Western Hemisphere.

Juárez has been the epicenter of violence in Mexico’s drug war since 2007, when leaders of two major drug cartels—the Sinaloa Federation’s Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán and the Juárez cartel’s Vicente Carrillo Fuentes—failed to see eye-to-eye on a few things and went to war. The annual murder rate skyrocketed, hitting the plateau of 3,622 people killed in 2010 (according to New Mexico State University researcher Molly Molloy) before dropping precipitously to 1,976 in 2011. The trend seems to be continuing into this year, with only 602 murders through August 14.

Chicago, however, is following a different trend. A 2011 report by the Chicago Police Department shows the murder rate held relatively steady between 2004-2011, with a “low” of 433 in 2011 to a high of 513 in 2008. However, this occurred after over a decade of annual murder totals topping 900 during three years in the 1990s. And it looks like 2012 is taking a turn for the worse again. Between the first of the year and August 23, 351 shooting deaths occurred in the city: 37 of those in July, 47 in June, and 51 in May.

The comparison to homicides in Ciudad Juárez this year is stunning—45 were killed there in July, 49 in June, and 74 in May.

Of course, there are several ways in which Chicago and Ciudad Juárez differ that makes the similar numbers sit on footing that isn’t equal. Chicago has a population of roughly 2.7 million people, which is more than twice that of Ciudad Juárez at 1.3 million residents. The geography, industries, and average income levels are very different.

But the two cities might just have more in common than not. Ciudad Juárez is notorious for its corrupt politicians and police officers, with an entire enforcement arm of the Juárez cartel, known as “La Línea,” being comprised almost completely of dirty local cops. Chicago doesn’t exactly have a squeaky clean record in this department, either. In February 2012, University of Illinois at Chicago professor Dick Simpson, who served as alderman of the 44th Ward in Lakeview from 1971 to 1979, found that Chicago is the most corrupt city in the US through using US Department of Justice statistics. 

It should come as no surprise that Chicago has a gang problem. Just over half of this year’s 297 victims so far had gang affiliations. While most of Ciudad Juárez’s violence has been attributed to the war between big cartels, the truth is more subtle. There are more than 500 gangs operating throughout the city’s 800 colonias, or neighborhoods. And the gangs are all doing the same thing, regardless of country or nationality—fighting for turf and drug profits.

According to the US Department of Justice, Mexican cartels dominate most trafficking of wholesale quantities of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana in the Chicago area. DEA Special Agent in Charge Jack Riley told CBS news last month that Mexican cartels have a significant influence on gang violence in Chicago, with three major cartels operating here and “turning parts of this Midwest city into a Mexican border town.”

Chicago’s increasing murder rate isn’t as simple as it seems—something that can just be labeled “typical gang violence” and addressed with more police patrols and neighborhood watches. The roots of the violence run more deeply than some officials might be willing to acknowledge, and stem from another violent part of the hemisphere that is dangerously starting to look more and more similar to “The Windy City.” Residents can only hope that city officials recognize the potential implications of the Chicago-Mexico connection and address them before the murder rate soars even higher.

"Mexican Navy says captures top drug boss 'El Coss.'"

Here is an excerpt from this Reuters article:

"The Mexican Navy said on Wednesday it had captured one of Mexico's most wanted drug bosses, the head of the Gulf Cartel, in what would mark a major victory in President Felipe
Calderon's crackdown on organized crime. The Navy said it would give more details about the arrest of the man it believed to be Jorge Costilla, alias 'El Coss,' when it parades him in front of the media early on Thursday. A government security official said Costilla, 41, was detained in Tampico in northeastern Mexico, where the cartel is active, without putting up a fight. The U.S. State Department has a reward of up to $5 million for his capture. No other details were immediately available. The arrest of the suspected capo comes barely a week after the Mexican Navy captured senior Gulf Cartel member Mario Cardenas, alias 'Fatso,' also in the state of Tamaulipas where Costilla was caught." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Just as an FYI, the identity of the man the Mexican navy arrested last night was confirmed as that of Costilla Sánchez, so we shouldn't be seeing another case of mistaken drug lord identity.

This arrest is a really big deal. It comes hot on the heels of another major CDG arrest, that of Mario Cárdenas Guillen, brother of former CDG heads Osiel and Antonio (aka "Tony Tormenta"), on Sept. 5. The Mexican government has essentially eliminated the leadership of both the Metros and Rojos factions of the CDG, effectively leaving the organization's jugular exposed to Los Zetas. There's very little chance that northern Tamaulipas can escape a dramatic rise in violence right now.

The question is, who will be responsible for that uptick. The first scenario that comes to mind is a huge push by Los Zetas to take over what's left of the CDG and finally take control of the elusive Matamoros plaza. That city was the birthplace of the CDG and had been their stronghold ever since. By taking Matamoros, not only do Los Zetas take control of the drug profits from that plaza, but score an enormous psychological victory over any CDG holdouts.

However, this situation also presents a huge opportunity to the Sinaloa Federation. Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán has been fighting Los Zetas on many fronts for years. He may be able to prop up what's left of the CDG in Tamaulipas and take the fight to Los Zetas instead. The Federation and the CDG used to be mortal enemies, but they allied a few years ago, forming "The New Federation" along with the old La Familia, to do joint battle against Los Zetas. If it meant survivial for the CDG, I have no doubt that whatever lieutenants get promoted to take the place of Mario and El Coss would be interested in forming a pact again.

The arrest is still very fresh and few details have emerged; Costilla Sánchez was only just recently paraded before the cameras yet in the traditional Mexican perp walk. We'll see how things play out over the next week or two, but regardless of which path the remnants of the CDG take, it's likely to get uglier in northeast Mexico.

"The 'Los Zetas' Cartel is Divided"

Here is a translated excerpt from the Mexican news magazine Proceso:

"Mexican Federal Security Sources confirm what some narcobanners hung in northern states suggested since early last month: Los Zetas, the extremely violent group of thugs who became a drug cartel, faces a break in the dome. Its two main leaders, [Miguel] El Z-40 [Treviño Morales] and [Heriberto] El Lazca [Lazcano Lazcano] apparently are engaged in a complicated web of betrayals. Experts predict new and more serious bloodshed in the country... [Several narco] messages, [videos on YouTube] and events such as the dismemberment of 49 bodies that were abandoned early on May 13 in Cadereyta, reveal a new division in one of the most powerful and diversified cartels in the country, which could be a prelude to a new spillage of blood... 'El Z-40 has been betrayed and has been moving against El Lazca's people,' say the officials, who add that Lazcano has been moving between Europe and Central America. He was recently spotted in Costa Rica, where he arrived from Germany... El Z-40, who has been located between Piedras Negras, Coahuila, and Aguascalientes, could make an even more violent cartel if he can remain in control. He has distinguished himself as an impulsive operator, say the sources. News of the Zeta division are not new. Since April last year the Texas firm Stratfor intelligence realized versions in this regard." Link to the Full Translation

Analysis: Trying to dissect the potential repercussions of an internal split within the ranks of Los Zetas is a different animal than the same endeavor with the CDG or the Federation. The reason for this is the inherent difference in organization between Los Zetas and the "old school" cartels where fault lines might be more visible.

For example, there have been two relatively recent splits in more traditionally organized TCOs - the Metros and Rojos factions of the CDG, and the split in La Familia Michoacana that resulted in the creation of the Knights Templar. One similarity is that you have two Zetas leaders - Treviño and Lazcano - with whom the various members and cells can choose to align. But Los Zetas are organized very horizontally, sort of in a franchise fashion, whereas the other major TCOs are organized more vertically with a clearer and stricter chain of command.

If the rumors of the split are confirmed - and it certainly seems to be heading in that direction - this will be the most significant shift in the TCO landscape since the La Familia split, or perhaps the defection of the BLO from the Federation. In the last year, we drug war observers believe Los Zetas gained control of more territory in Mexico than the Federation, which is a considerable amount of real estate. Journalist and author Sam Logan theorized not long ago that Los Zetas may have had a long-term strategy in mind to consolidate control over smuggling routes in a roman cross pattern across Mexico. Any major split would completely disrupt any such strategy.

It might be difficult to determine how the split would impact any international arrangements Los Zetas have with cocaine suppliers in South America, route managers and training camp locations in Central America, and arms suppliers in Central America and the US. Kind of like a major corporation that relies heavily on sales and service, Zetas partners may show more loyalty to their local Zetas cell, rather than one or the other head honcho. And individual cells may continue to operate relatively independently, regardless of the personal disputes between Z-40 and El Lazca.

Certainly, some (or many) members may feel more loyalty towards one man or the other, and will follow orders to the death. However, due to the military-style discipline leaders, trainers, and recruiters try to instill in many new members, some Zetas may feel a little lost, like watching the General and the Colonel fighting, and just wait to see who comes out alive to give the new orders.

Also, we have to remember that Los Zetas - probably more than any other TCO - have branched out into a wide variety of other illicit activities, many of which are dependent on local conditions for income. Conflict at the top of the Zetas food chain may not have any major impact on the extortion of businesses or pirated DVD sales in certain parts of Mexico.

But first things first; we need to wait a bit and see if these rumors pan out, meaning we start seeing an increase in violence in parts of Mexico where Los Zetas have total control - meaning a rival TCO can't be held responsible for the killing, like we saw in Tijuana in 2008-2010. So for now, the watching and waiting continues...

"'Flood' of drugs from Mexico linked to Atlanta area abductions."

Here is an excerpt from Mary Lou Pickel's article in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

"A recent increase in drug-related kidnappings in Gwinnett County has put a spotlight on drug violence in Georgia, federal agents say. About nine drug-related kidnappings have occurred in Gwinnett this year. The latest involved a man bound and chained in a basement in Lilburn whom federal agents rescued earlier this month. Mexican drug cartels are moving large amounts of cocaine, methamphetamine and marijuana into the country for distribution up the East Coast, said Rodney Benson, the special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement Administration in Atlanta. Drug-related kidnappings have increased in the past 90 days, he said. David Nahmias, U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Georgia, said Gwinnett is a center of Mexican drug cartel activity in the area because of easy transportation on I-85 and a large Hispanic population where traffickers can try to blend in... Representatives of Mexican drug cartels in Atlanta are 'clashing with each other,' the DEA's Benson said. Drug traffickers are also getting younger, Gwinnett County Assistant District Attorney Keith Miles said... Miles says the up-tick in kidnappings is not a 'blip.' 'It's just a matter of time before innocent people get caught in the crossfire,' he said." Link to Full Article

Analysis: This story shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, as Atlanta is a known trafficking hub for Mexican TCOs. What should come as a surprise is that THIS ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN IN JUY 2008! Yep, this headline and complete story would fit right in with news reports coming out today.

Honestly, I don't have much by way of analysis on this story; it really speaks for itself. I highly recommend following the link to the full article and scrolling down to the bottom so you can read some of the kidnapping cases that occurred in the first half of 2008 in Gwinnett. My point for writing this post is to showcase exactly how little we've progressed in acknowledging that Mexico's drug war is here. This kind of stuff has been happening not just in Georgia, but in Alabama, Baltimore, Denver...you name it. US cities nowhere near the border have been experiencing kidnappings and violent drug-related murders for years, but some in charge are happy to pass those incidents off as "the drug business as usual."

And hey, maybe it is. DHS chooses not to keep track of cartel-on-cartel violence here in the US, which totally misses the point of what border violence spillover really is. The El Paso Sheriff's Office has told me that if they investigate a gang-related murder that is somehow connected to the Mexican drug trade, they don't consider that spillover; just "business as usual." I'm pretty sure that DHS wouldn't classify these Gwinnett kidnappings that way either, which makes me wonder how many TCO-related violent incidents are occurring in the United States where agencies - for purely subjective or political reasons - choose to not advertise the link to Mexico. Then you have other agencies, like the DEA and several south Texas departments, who are happy to let Americans know, "Hey! We've got a problem here!"

I just get so angry when I stumble across old news reports like this that read like today's news. It makes me feel like some people at DHS and in the White House are asleep at the wheel. How is it that no progress has been made in the last four years in our cities where Mexican TCOs are operating? It's all about priorities, and it seems obvious to me that the drug war has been nowhere near the top of the national security priority list since it started in earnest several years ago.

"Mexican army captures 'El Loco,' suspect in murder of 49 in Cadereyta, Nuevo León."

Here is the translated excerpt of Ignacio Alzaga's story on Milenio.com:

"In the town of Guadalupe, Nuevo Leon, elements of the Army captured Daniel 'El Loco' Elizondo, a member of the Gulf cartel and alleged perpetrator of the execution of 49 people found in the town of Cadereyta. The Ministry of National Defense (SEDENA) reported that, 'After the discovery of 49 bodies, military personnel conducted ground surveys and other specific actions to identify, locate and arrest the alleged perpetrators of these crimes with positive results, which will be announced soon, as operations continue,' the agency said in a statement. The National Defense said during the arrest on Thursday in China, Nuevo León, of eight alleged members of the Gulf cartel, they secured four rifles, a handgun, three hand grenades, 881 cartridges of different calibers, 34 magazines for different weapons, a kilogram of cocaine, two vehicles, tactical gear and a radio." Link to Full Article

Here is an excerpt from a post about the story on Blog del Narco:

"Daniel de Jesús Elizondo Ramirez, alias "El Loco", who was the leader of "Los Zetas" in the municipality of Cadareyta, Nuevo León, was arrested in a subdivision in the municipality of Guadalupe for his participation in the event. Edgar Villegas Ruiz, the Department of Defense Director of Operations, said 'El Loco' would have received from Heriberto Lazcano, the leader of the criminal organization 'Los Zetas,' the order to transfer human remains to the main square of Cadereyta, but it was Elizondo who decided to leave them on the road... Another eight [people] were arrested in the town of China. Following that arrest, [authorities] located five mass graves, where there were nine bodies." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Based on the information I've received about this over the past two days, I think I have more questions than answers at this point. One of my TCO sources first told me about the arrest on Friday; media outlets are only reporting on it now, which is disappointing, to say the least. You probably noticed that there's a major disparity between the first story, as reported by Milenio, and the second, as reported by Blog del Narco and echoed by Associated Press reports. The initial information on the ground matched up with the first report - that Elizondo was a member of the Gulf cartel, not Los Zetas. But that didn't add up for my source, and wouldn't for anyone who's been following drug war events.

Anyway, assuming the press finally got their act straight, and we're dealing with captured suspects from Los Zetas, let's take a look at the plan (again, according to what the press is telling us from a suspect's confession). El Lazca, head of Los Zetas, ordered the murder of the 49 people. He wanted the bodies on display in the town's main square, but Elizondo took it upon himself to dump the bodies on the side of the road. They left a sign next to the bodies claiming the Zetas did it. Then days later, they hung narcobanners around town accepting responsibility for other mass killings, but denying blame for this one. Huh? If you're scratching your head, then join the party.

While things may have actually happened this way, there are a couple of things that are bugging me. First, Elizondo defied a direct order by El Lazca. No, Los Zetas are not organized hierarchically like an old-school TCO, and work more like a franchise operation. But still, they're rooted in military discipline. To defy the orders of No.1 and make decisions on your own like that, especially in the midst of one of Mexico's biggest narco body dumps? Very odd.

Then there's the blame game. El Loco says the disparate information coming from the sign and banners was meant to cause confusion. Among who? The police and military? Local residents? Rivals? From my view here in the US, it caused more curiosity than anything else, just trying to figure out who killed all those people when TCOs are usually clambering all over each other to take credit. The investigators would have been confused if they had taken Los Zetas at their word, which isn't necessarily the best investigative tactic when you're trying to get to the bottom of things in Mexico.

I'm not sure if the location of the body dump is significant, especially if what Elizondo said is true. Who knows what was going on inside his head when he picked that spot. It's well east of downtown Monterrey, and enough of a distance away from the primary conflict between Los Zetas and the CDG. The other arrests were made in China, which is another appreciable distance east of Cadereyta, somewhat in the middle of nowhere. Honestly, the body dump in the town square would have made a more dramatic impact, if that's even possible.

But we still come back to the real question everyone wants an answer to: Who were the victims? I still believe they're either migrants or innocent locals. If the killers had left any identifiable parts on them, some may have been associated with the CDG or another rival group, lending more credibility and strength to this intimidation campaign. But if any of those people had been traced back to an absence of criminal record or association, it would be another huge black mark on Los Zetas' record - which they haven't really cared about in the past, to make note. This is actually pretty tidy for the Mexican authorities; they can claim the victims were likely whomever they want them to be for convenience - and in most cases, it's better if the victims are "bad guys."

Bottom line, I don't know if they arrested the right people; we never do. I think it was most likely Los Zetas who did the killing, and if their plan was some sort of deception operation to make their rivals look bad or bring heat upon themselves, it was a fail. And, we'll probably never know who those victims were or where they came from. We can only wait to see if, by some miracle, investigators can provide some solid, reliable answers.

"Nuevo Laredo heats up as Sinaloa-Zetas conflict leaves 23 dead."

Normally I provide an excerpt from just one news story, but due to the significance and gravity of incidents on Friday - as well as some disparate details - I'm excerpting three different articles:

"At least 23 people killed in Mexican border city as victims hanged, decapitate," FOX News (via Associated Press) - 

"The bodies of 23 people were found hanging from a bridge or decapitated and dumped near city hall Friday in the border city of Nuevo Laredo, where drug cartels are fighting a bloody and escalating turf war. Authorities found nine of the victims, including four women, hanging from an overpass leading to a main highway, said a Tamaulipas state official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to provide information on the case. Hours later, police found 14 human heads inside coolers outside city hall along with a threatening note. The 14 bodies were found in black plastic bags inside a car abandoned near an international bridge, the official said. The official didn't release the contents of the note, or give a motive for the killings. But the city across the border from Laredo, Texas has recently been torn by a renewed turf war between the Zetas cartel, a gang of former Mexican special-forces soldiers, and the powerful Sinaloa cartel, which has joined forces with the Gulf cartel, former allies of the Zetas... Last month, 14 mutilated bodies were found in a vehicle left in the city center. Some media outlets reported that the Sinaloa cartel took responsibility for those bodies and in a message allegedly signed by its leader, Guzman, said the group was now back in Nuevo Laredo "to clean" the city." Link to Full Article

"New violence in Nuevo Laredo sparks worry over gang wars," Dudley Althaus and Dane Schiller in The Houston Chronicle - 

"Gangland killers hanged nine people side-by-side from an overpass at a busy interchange in Nuevo Laredo on Friday, and stuffed 14 decapitated bodies into a minivan left in the heart of the busiest trade route on the U.S.-Mexico border. 'This is how I am going to finish off all the fools you send to heat up the plaza," read a banner on the overpass addressed to the Gulf Cartel, which is waging war with the Zetas gang that controls the city. "We'll see you around, you bunch of parasites.' It was not immediately clear if the killers who hanged the five men and four women early Friday also decapitated the 14 other victims. Some of those hanged were bloodied and battered, and appeared to have been tortured... The banner left with the bodies on April 18, purportedly signed by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán, vowed that the gangster - considered Mexico's most powerful crime boss - was taking back Nuevo Laredo from the Zetas, and was now aligned with their Gulf Cartel enemies... Peter Hanna, a retired FBI agent who spent much of his career investigating the Gulf Cartel, speculates that Guzman may be hoping to gain control of Nuevo Laredo before the July 1 presidential elections in Mexico." Link to Full Article

"The Cleansing by El Chapo in Zeta Turf," on the U.S. Open Borders blog (via original source Blog del Narco) - 

"Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman proclaimed his presence in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas and said to be cleaning the region of Zetas when he displayed 14 dismembered bodies of alleged Zeta members. El Chapo, leader of the Sinaloa cartel, demonstrated in this brutal action his presence in this border city along with other criminal groups that fall within the domain of his organization who are said to be working in keeping the area clean of Zetas and sent a message to Zeta leaders by displaying the horrific dismember bodies of several men alleged to have affilliation to Los Zetas. El Chapo Guzman also left a picture to show evidence of their presence in Nuevo Laredo where a large number of members belonging to the Sinaloa cartel pose next to a narco banner. In the narco banner, left next to a pile of dismembered bodies belonging to Los Zetas, El Chapo calls into question the lack of courage of Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales, alias El Z-40, for being afraid to face him personally and sent a message by throwing the bodies of his group in his own turf. The banner appears next to at least fourteen dismembered bodies where El Chapo promises the public that he will continue to cleanup of the area of Los Zetas, so that the people of Nuevo Laredo can live free and in peace." Link to Full Article (CAUTION: Very graphic images)

Analysis: It seems like déja vu, as this isn't the first time control of the Nuevo Laredo plaza has been dramatically contested. Before I get into my analysis of the current situation, I just want to provide a bit of history regarding Nuevo Laredo.

Back in 2004, Nuevo Laredo was one of the hottest narco hot spots in Mexico. Back then, the battle was between the Gulf cartel and the Sinaloa Federation; the irony that these two are allies now in the very same plaza isn't lost. Los Zetas were the enforcement arm of the CDG at the time, but the sands were shifting. Then-head of the CDG, Osiel Cárdenas Guillen, had been arrested the previous year, and was trying (rather successfully) to run the CDG from a Mexican prison. Los Zetas were given the green light to go all out against the Federation, and this was when beheadings and dismemberments began in earnest. Ioan Grillo points out astutely in his book El Narco that Nuevo Laredo in 2004 - not the beginning of President Calderón's term in December 2006 - was the true start of the modern drug war in Mexico.

The Nuevo Laredo-Laredo plaza is very lucrative because of the large volume of trucks that pass through the area, and the multiple (exploitable) ports of entry. It's the same reason why Tijuana-San Ysidro and Ciudad Juárez-El Paso are so valuable to TCOs, and why the cities to the south are often epicenters of violence.

After the battle ended, the Gulf cartel emerged victorious and things in Nuevo Laredo quieted down for several years. Then in 2010, Los Zetas officially split off from the CDG to form their own TCO, and the turf war began again along the Texas-Mexico border. It was originally the most heated in Matamoros and Reynosa, but spread west to Nuevo Laredo. The Gulf cartel is a shadow of its former self, due partly to Mexican government/military actions, but mostly due to these battles with an ever-strenghtening Zetas corps. The CDG has since aligned with its old enemy, El Chapo's Federation, to fight off Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo and elsewhere.

Speaking of which, the two "megacartels" of the Federation and Los Zetas have several battlefronts open at the moment, including Veracruz and Guadalajara. The Federation could use the CDG's help - as limited as it may be - and both groups have much to gain from the expulsion of Los Zetas from Nuevo Laredo. El Chapo can chalk up a significant victory against Los Zetas and expand his empire further eastward, and the CDG could enter into a potentially lucrative trafficking arrangement with the Federation to move product through the plaza. 

I don't know that I necessarily buy Peter Hanna's speculation that El Chapo may want to win control of Nuevo Laredo before the election in July. I've always contended that the TCOs don't really care who's president, compared to their interest in who sits in the state governors', mayors', and chiefs of police seats. Yes, the president can determine where the army goes and how many soldiers are sent, but military deployments don't always have the intended effect of quieting things down. Also, the newly elected president doesn't take office until December anyway, so both TCOs have some time to carry out their strategies.

Bottom line, this is just one of many major conflicts we can expect between the Federation and Los Zetas, as they've emerged as the two power players of 2012. All the other TCOs have pretty much picked sides and aligned with one or the other, so the narco hot spots in Mexico will shift as one TCO or the other decides where they want to expand - or encroach. El Chapo made a brilliant move by bringing so much media and government attention to Nuevo Laredo with the intention of disrupting Zetas operations there, and I imagine we'll keep seeing more of these gruesome "disruptions." We can also expect Nuevo Laredo to stay hot for the next several months, unless we see something like the death or arrest of major Zetas leaders, like Miguel "Z-40" Treviño Morales.

"Is The United States A Narco 'Safe Haven' For Mexican Drug Lords?"

Here is an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's Correspondents Watch:

"For years, if not decades, Mexican drug lords and various upper-level members of Mexico’s transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) have resided in the United States. But because the savage drug war in Mexico has become so dangerous for them, they now prefer to spend more and more time at their “vacation” homes in the relative safety of US cities and communities. Knowing that violent TCO members are living among us is disturbing on many levels, and has begged the question of whether the United States can be equated to Pakistan as a country that allows itself to be a “safe haven” for violent criminals and narco-terrorists?"

To read the full article at HSToday.us, please CLICK HERE! 

"Mexican TCO Members Quietly Living Among Us - For Now."

Here's an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's "Correspondents' Watch":

"Brownsville, Texas is what most people would call a working-class town. It has an industrial feel and there are areas of the community that have seen better days. One of the city’s mainstays is its large port and its connection via three international bridges to Matamoros in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas. Driving around town, you find plenty of taquerias along with typical chain restaurants, warehouses, car dealerships, schools and other places typical for a south Texas town or Gulf Coast port city. But there is something else that makes Brownsville - as well as the neighboring cities of Harlingen and McAllen - different from the average, small port community. And that is it is located a few hundred yards from the US-Mexico border and one of the most violent areas in Mexico. As a result, many members of Mexico’s transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) spend a considerable amount of time in south Texas. Some even own homes, property and small businesses here... Several recent incidents have brought to light the fact that TCO members—some very high-ranking and some violent—are living among us in the United States, and definitely in much higher numbers along the southwest border."

To read the full article on HSToday.com, please CLICK HERE!

"U.S. Accuses Iranians of Plotting to Kill Saudi Envoy."

Here is an excerpt from J. David Goodman's article in The New York Times:

"Federal authorities foiled a plot by men linked to the Iranian government to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States and to bomb the embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington, Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said in a news conference on Tuesday. Mr. Holder said the plot began with a meeting in Mexico in May, “the first of a series that would result in an international conspiracy by elements of the Iranian government” to pay $1.5 million to murder the ambassador on United States soil. The men accused of plotting the attacks were Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, according to court documents filed in federal court in Manhattan. The Justice Department said the men were originally from Iran. He said the men were connected to the secretive Quds Force, a division of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps that has carried out operations in other countries... According to the complaint, other conspirators based in Iran were aware of and approved the plan, which involved hiring men connected to a Mexican drug cartel to carry out the killing... The complaint says that the men hired by the two accused plotters were in fact confidential sources of the Drug Enforcement Agency. The men were later asked by the accused plotters whether they were knowledgeable in bomb-making, the complaint said, adding that Mr. Arbabsiar 'was interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia.'" Link to Full Article

To read the full criminal complaint issued by the US Department of Justice, CLICK HERE.

Analysis: Much is being made at this moment about the connection between Iran and the unnamed Mexican TCO referred to in the complain, and rightfully so. But there is also much need for context and perspective in this story.

First, I highly recommend that if you're interested in this story, you read the full complaint. It gets bogged down in legalese in several places, but there's important factual information that people (i.e. the media) need to be aware of before jumping to dangerous conclusions.

I'd like to point out that no TCO is specifically named in the complaint. The government describes the TCO that the Iranians believe they're working with as follows:

"Drug Cartel #1 is a large, sophisticated, and violent drug-trafficking cartel. It is well known throughout North America, and its principal places of operation are Mexico and the United States. According to published reports, Drug Cartel #1 has access to military-grade weaponry and explosives, and has engaged in numerous acts of violence, including assassinations and murders."

Anyone who follows the drug war with any sort of regularity can make the assumption that we're talking about Los Zetas here. But just know for the record that Drug Cartel #1 is never named in the official complaint.

Moving on to the most important part of the story...the informant. Many media reports about this story are making the erroneous connection that the Iranians successfully hired Los Zetas, who agreed to murder the Saudi ambassador. What actually happened was that the Iranians thought they had hired someone who works for Drug Cartel #1 (we're reasonably assuming it was a Zeta), and who was actually a paid informant for the DEA. Here's how the complaint describes the informant:

"CS-1 is a paid confidential source. Previously, CS-1 was charged in connection with a narcotics offense by authorities of a certain US state. In exchange for CS-1's cooperation in various narcotics investigations, the State charges were dismissed..."

There's some more info, but that's the basic picture. We can assume he was arrested in Texas, since the meetings between the Iranians and the informant occurred in Reynosa, right across the border from McAllen. But again, this is an assumption. There's also no indication of what Mexican TCO he may have been connected with "in real life." For all we know, he may have been a local gang member of Mexican nationality.

Here's the most important aspect of this story: We have NO IDEA if Los Zetas, or the Gulf cartel, or whichever TCO the Iranians thought they were working with would actually have agreed to help them. Yes, it's always a possibility. But think about the ramifications of a TCO getting caught in the Washington DC area involved in this kind of plot. And for what, $1.5 million? That's chump change for a major TCO - one lost load of cocaine or meth. To risk the kind of US government and law enforcement scrutiny - essentially the Hammer of God - being brought down on them for participating in such a plot would hurt their business, and very existence, in a way that Mexican government action never has. Why would they take such a risk for (relative) pennies?

The problem is, there's no way to just call "El Lazca" or "El Coss" and ask, um, would you guys actually do this if they offered? I've already written several times in several places that I thought it would be unlikely for TCOs to willingly and knowingly smuggle terrorist operatives into the US across the southwest border because the risk to their business of getting caught was too high for whatever money they'd get for it. But this kind of plot is a completely different animal - engaging in the assassination of a foreign dignitary for a country that's a state sponsor of terrorism in the US capital...it just seems too risky.

But this should not take away from the fact that the Iranians - and God knows who else - was interested in using a TCO for this purpose. Who knows how many times TCOs have been approached by foreign governments or terrorist groups for this purpose? And if this has happened, what transpired during the negotiations? Have they all been turned down outright, or is there some negotiation like this ongoing for future murderous action on US soil? 

Maybe Los Zetas are crazy enough to do it, but for $1.5 million dollars? Add a couple of zeros to that figure, and maybe it's a better possibility.

"Mexico gangs send deadly message to social media."

Here is an excerpt from Dudley Althaus' article in The Houston Chronicle:

"Placards left with the tortured bodies of two people hanging from a Nuevo Laredo overpass warn that the same fate awaits social media devotees who keep information flowing by text, Twitter, blogs and other means as gangsters muzzle the news media in much of Mexico. 'This is going to happen to all the internet busybodies,' said one of the notes signed with a Z, presumably for the Zetas gang that controls Nuevo Laredo. 'Listen up, I'm on to you'... The messages found in Nuevo Laredo on Tuesday, with the bodies of a man and a woman in their 20s, directly threatened two popular blogs that specialize in reporting gang-related violence." Link to Full Article

Here is an excerpt from Rafael Romo's article, "Drug violence victims go unidentified in Mexico," on CNN.com:

"More than 48 hours after two mangled bodies appeared hanging by ropes from a pedestrian bridge in a Mexican border city, authorities had yet to identify the victims... The woman was hogtied and disemboweled. Attackers left her topless, dangling by her feet and hands from a bridge in the border city of Nuevo Laredo. A bloodied man next to her was hanging by his hands, his right shoulder severed so deeply the bone was visible.Posters found with the bodies contained messages mentioning two blogs and threatening users of social media, demanding they stop reporting drug-related crimes in the city, located across the border from Laredo, Texas. Mexico's notoriously ruthless drug gangs regularly hang victims from bridges and highway overpasses. And bloggers who specialize in sharing news about trafficking have been threatened in the past. But this could be the first time users of such social networks have been targeted... CNN tried unsuccessfully to get information about the grisly slayings at the local, state, and federal level. Officials were either unavailable or unwilling to release any information about the killings. Local media reported that the male victim was 25 years old and the female 28, without citing any sources." Link to Full Article

Analysis: This latest incident has caused a global uproar, with even huge European news outlets like BBC wanting to find out more about the murdered social media users in Nuevo Laredo. The thing is, how do we really know who these people were, or what they did?

Essentially, every media outlet is basing their story on the content of the messages posted with the bodies - presumably from Los Zetas, by their signature "Z." That means that Los Zetas - the bloodthirsty criminals and killers that they are - are being taken at their word, that these two people posted in some social media outlet some sort of detailed information about TCO activity in the area. The problem is, the authorities aren't talking - probably because they don't know anything, and/or are afraid to ask any questions.

So the media and Twitter are going nuts, telling the world that freedom of the press and freedom of speech (which were already being severely hampered in Mexico by the narcos) are taking the biggest historical hit because of this incident, and no one really even knows what happened. Who were these two victims? What social media outlet (Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, a blog...) did they use? What did they say, and about which TCO did they say it? Did they even do what Los Zetas say they did? Did they post anonymously somewhere, or were they foolish enough to identify themselves somehow? And if they were indeed anonymous social media users, how did Los Zetas identify them?

There are two things that could have happened here. If what Los Zetas say happened is true, then this is one of the bigger salvos the TCO has launched against "civilians." But perhaps even that needs to be caveated. Were the victims members of a rival TCO and posting information that would hurt Zetas operations? Or were they innocents, warning others to get away from a potentially violent area due to Zetas activity?

The other scenario is that these two victims are rivals, fall guys, or random people Los Zetas killed and wanted to use to make threats and spread fear. Obviously, this incident has had that effect and more. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter who these people were (regarding TCO affiliation) or what they did or didn't do. Los Zetas are being taken at their word, and everyone is assuming the two victims did what Los Zetas are accusing them of. As a result, many social media users in Mexico are freaking out, and lots of people who provide useful information about drug war activity have probably just been silenced.

This is another one of those terrorist tactics Los Zetas have chosen to engage in. It doesn't matter whether or not you carry out what you threaten to do; the threat is often enough to persuade enough people to modify their behavior to suit your needs. Also, there's the well-worn adage that perception is reality. Whether or not these victims did what Los Zetas say they did, people are believing the message Los Zetas are putting out there. It's a perfect example of a successful psychological operation, and we'll have to chalk one up in the L column for the Mexican authorities - and a good number of media outlets.

"The Double-Edged Sword Of A Mexican Drug Lord's Arrest."

Here's an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's Correspondents Watch:

"Over the last year-and-a-half, the Mexican government arrested and killed more top Mexican drug lords than it has in at least the last decade. For an administration that is constantly under fire for a drug war strategy that has failed to significantly reduce violence along the US-Mexico border and beyond, these high-profile arrests are hard-won victories against transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). But are they really?"

To read the rest of the article on HSToday.us, please CLICK HERE!

"The Mexican TCO Threat Has Entered Cyberspace."

Here is an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's Correspondents Watch:

"Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are no strangers to cyberspace. For the last few years, they’ve been posting videos of their kidnap victims and rivals being tortured on YouTube. They push propaganda on Facebook and MySpace. They’ve even learned how to communicate with each other through Twitter to evade the watchful eyes of Mexican authorities. But now they’re taking their presence on the Internet to new levels: fraud, piracy and information theft, hacking and sabotage. This only adds to their electronic expansion of existing crimes, like extortion, intimidation and money laundering. The question is, are they targeting American individuals or businesses, and what impact are they having on US cybersecurity?"

To read the rest of the article on HSToday.us, please CLICK HERE!

"The Significance Of Links Between Mexican TCOs And Iraqis In San Diego."

Here's an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's Correspondents Watch:

"On August 18, the El Cajon, California Police Department set off alarms with a press release that mentioned an association between the Sinaloa Federation and an organized crime group run by Iraqi Chaldeans. But while the knee-jerk reaction by some might be that this roundup of Iraqi criminals by multiple law enforcement agencies in San Diego County finally provided solid evidence that Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are working with terrorists, it didn't. Far from it. Yet, there are some very interesting aspects of this story regarding how certain TCOs are behaving in southern California and why they are reaching out to groups like the Iraqis in San Diego County."

To read the full article on the HSToday.us website, please CLICK HERE!

Iraqi organized crime groups in San Diego linked to Sinaloa Federation

Here is an excerpt from a press release issued yesterday by the El Cajon Police Department:

"Our officers had noticed increased narcotics trafficking and violent crime in certain neighborhoods of El Cajon. These crimes have been attributed primarily to Iraqi organized crime elements, and as this investigation has discovered, the Sinaloa Cartel, a Mexico- based drug trafficking organization (DTO) which supplies them... The targets of this investigation are members of an Iraqi DTO which has suspected affiliation with the Chaldean Organized Crime Syndicate. This syndicate began in the early 80’s in Detroit, Michigan. Crimes associated with the syndicate include murder, arson, weapons and narcotics trafficking, money laundering, fraud, theft, counterfeiting, racketeering, alien smuggling, assault, kidnapping, and armed robbery. Chaldean organized crime has historical ties to the Sinaloa Cartel, and the Mexican Mafia... During the course of 'Operation Shadowbox,' from January 2011 to present, DEA/MET and El Cajon Police have purchased large amounts of narcotics, pharmaceuticals, firearms, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) from [Iraqi] subjects at 811 E. Main... In April 2011, a DEA undercover operative was shown a hand grenade at 811 East Main and was told additional grenades were available, being obtained from a Mexican military source of supply... As the investigation continues, additional members of the Iraqi DTO are expected to be identified and arrested." Link to Full Press Release

Analysis: First I want to give you a little bit of background about these Iraqis. Chaldeans are Iraqi Christians who were persecuted after the fall of Saddam Hussein, and thus sought asylum here in the US. A large percentage of them have come, and continue to come, through the port of San Ysidro to join the vast community of Iraqi Chaldeans in San Diego County. These Iraqis are heavily scrutinized when they declare themselves because Iraq is considered a "special interest country" by DHS; i.e. a country with ties to terrorism. Therefore, Iraqis attempting to enter the US are considered "special interest aliens," or SIAs.

I really need to emphasize here that there is no evidence that operational terrorists from Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East have entered the US in this manner. Of course, it's a huge concern for DHS that a member of Hizballah or al-Qa'ida might try to infiltrate a group of emigrating Chaldeans and sneak in with fraudulent documents. I'm not saying that this has never happened; however, if it has, no one in our government knows about it. Besides, the Chaldean community is pretty tight-knit, as are the groups of them that travel halfway across the world to Mexico in order to cross the border from Tijuana. They would be wary of an outsider trying to join their group. Again, while this scenario is always a possibility, it's less likely than you might think.

Moving onto the more interesting issue...the association between Chaldean TCOs and the Sinaloa Federation. I saw this and was immediately concerned that some media outlets would start screaming about the association between Mexican TCOs and terrorists. Trust me, that is NOT what is going on here. In fact, it's no different than all the other drug trafficking arrangements Mexican TCOs have with gangs and other criminal groups here in the US.

The association between the Chaldeans and the Federation makes a lot of business sense. Given the criminal activities the Chaldeans are allegedly involved in, according to the press release, they definitely need a big drug supplier. Who better to fit that bill than the Federation? What's even more interesting is that it's the Federation doing the supplying and not the AFO/FSO. Based on some government and on-the-ground sources, I was under the impression that the AFO/FSO still had control over the Tijuana plaza, but under an arrangement with the Federation (which has control of the Mexico border along California east to Mexicali). With these Chaldeans being right across from purportedly AFO/FSO territory, you'd think that's who they'd be dealing with. It's likely the Chaldeans have had this trafficking arrangement with the TCOs for many years, and with all the chaos in northern Baja California in the past five years, it's tough to say how that's affected supply lines to this group.

Back to the main point, this is NOT representative of an alliance between Middle Eastern terrorists and Mexican TCOs. This particular Chaldean organized crime group is involved in a lot of nasty things, but they're all typical for organized crime. The main role the TCOs are playing here is that of illegal drug supplier, and possibily military arms supplier. Nothing more profound - at least not at this point - should be drawn from this investigation.

"US officials confirm arrest of Juárez cartel leader connected to US Consulate deaths."

Here is an excerpt from Daniel Borunda, Alex Hinojosa and Marty Schladen's article in the El Paso Times:

"Mexican authorities captured the reputed leader of La Linea, a vicious group of thugs that carried out murders and terrorized Juárez for a drug cartel. José Antonio Acosta Hernández, also known as 'El Diego,' one of the highest-ranking bosses of the Juárez drug cartel, was reportedly arrested Friday after a shootout with authorities in a Chihuahua City neighborhood. Acosta was indicted this year in the killings of three people connected to the U.S. Consulate in Juárez... His arrest, according to one expert, may signal the end of the Juárez drug cartel and a downturn in the violence that has gripped Juárez and the state of Chihuahua. Acosta, who was reportedly flown to Mexico City after his capture, is believed to run operations for La Linea in Chihuahua City and Juárez and was arguably the most-wanted man in the state of Chihuahua... In recent weeks, narco-graffiti threatening the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and U.S. Consulate employees appeared on public walls in Juárez and Chihuahua City. The messages telling the "gringos of the DEA" to quit meddling were signed 'Diego'... Many of the public threats from La Linea made frequent references to 'El Diego'... The capture of Acosta may be a new beginning for Juárez residents and a decrease in violence, said University of Texas at El Paso political science professor Tony Payan." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Chalk up another victory for the Calderón administration, as this is a nice one. There's no doubt that Acosta's arrest will have a detrimental impact on La Linea, and perhaps on the VCFO (Juárez cartel) as a whole. The big question is, of course, how much?

Acosta has been indicted in the US for alleged involvement in the attack on the three US Consulate employees, which makes him eligible for extradition. The only thing any narco fears is extradition. Dr Payan mentioned in the article something about Acosta providing good, useful intelligence about his organization and perhaps rivals. That's the key here, both to either preventing Acosta's extradition, reducing his sentence if he is sent to the US for trial (and assuming a conviction, of course), and bringing down the remnants of the VCFO. But will he talk?

No one can really say. Edgar "La Barbie" Valdez Villareal did, and so did Osiel Cárdenas Guillen. If the VCFO really is crumbling, Acosta may believe there's not much left to save - except his own rear end. La Linea has been a force to be reckoned with in Chihuahua for many years, and the VCFO is not a TCO to go quietly into the night - it's been fighting for its life against the Federation for quite some time now, and still maintains a presence in Juárez. However, there is a chance that Acosta could drive some pretty big nails into the VCFO's coffin; we'll see how that develops over the next few weeks and months.

But there's still the other question - how will the assumed demise of La Linea, and perhaps later on the VCFO - affect levels of violence in Juárez? Many people believe that if the VCFO were to concede or be destroyed, the Federation would win control of the Juárez plaza and peace would ensue. Unfortunately, that probably wouldn't be the case.

In past years, the violence in Ciudad Juárez has been a result of the turf battle between the VCFO and the Federation. But something happened in the last couple of years to change to rules - throw them out the window actually...the local drug trade exploded. There are something like 500 colonias, or neighborhoods, in Juárez, and each one has its own gang defending its turf - and dealing drugs. These gangs have joined in the bloodshed, and it's gotten to the point that no one in Juárez really knows who is killing whom. The Federation and the VCFO don't have their top people mixed up in that mess; they hire out lower level thugs to do the grunt work for them in that chaos. The cops are afraid of going in and asking too many questions, let alone thoroughly investigating any murders that occur in Juárez, so it's too simplistic to say that once the VCFO is out, everything will get better. Juárez still has a few hundred gangs to deal with.

That being said, if the Federation ends up being top dog in Juárez as a result of Acosta's arrest (whether that's in a few weeks or months), they have the power to rein in all the disparate factions in the city and establish some order. Whether or not they want to is a good question. With all the killing and chaos, less authority is scrutinizing the movement of drugs across the border into El Paso. However, all those gang members already in the drug business and possibly looking for work...this could result in the largest narco recruiting drive the drug war has ever seen.

At this early point in the game, post-Acosta arrest, it's too soon to tell what impact him being out of the game will have. Of course, it's always interesting to speculate, and imagine positive outcomes. As always, more to come...

"Mexican TCOs Literally Leaving Their Mark On American Media."

Here's an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's "Correspondents Watch":

"Not too long ago, organized crime groups in Mexico—commonly (and inaccurately) known as cartels, were referred to as drug trafficking organizations, or DTOs. In the last couple of years, US government agencies have stopped using this moniker and switched to using transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) to refer to the narcos because their portfolio of illegal activities has significantly expanded in scope and geographic area. It’s widely accepted that Mexican TCOs make most of their vast sums of money from the drug trade. But is that really the case anymore?  Some drug war observers believe it may not be. Edgardo Buscaglia, a renowned expert on organized crime in Mexico, believes as little as half of the TCOs’ profits are currently derived from drug trafficking. In the past several years, as enforcement and interdiction efforts have improved, many major TCOs have seen a drop in drug income. To cover their losses, they’ve expanded into kidnapping for ransom, human smuggling, extortion and media piracy. Bloodthirsty and heartless killers are selling bootleg copies of “Toy Story 3” on the street to make money? Believe it."

To read the rest of my article on the HSToday website, please CLICK HERE!

"Despite El Chango Arrest, Violence Likely to Grow in Mexico."

Here is an excerpt from Guy Taylor's article in World Politics Review (in which I'm heavily quoted):

"The capture this week of La Familia Michoacana drug cartel boss José de Jesús Méndez, aka El Chango or the Monkey, represents a shiny notch on the belt of Mexican President Felipe Calderón, whose five-year-old presidency has been defined by its war against drug kingpins. But the arrest is unlikely to stem the ongoing violence that has caused frustrations to mount among Mexican voters ahead of the nation's 2012 presidential election. In fact, it's likely to have the opposite effect, says Sylvia Longmire... The government campaign against La Familia over the past several years had already resulted in a split within the cartel's ranks, Longmire added. With El Chango now in custody, she explained, a power vacuum has opened, with the Los Zetas and Sinoloa cartels angling to take over La Familia's territory in the Michoacan and Guerrero states along Mexico's southwestern Pacific coastline." Link to Full Article

Analysis: You can read my take on the arrest in a small nutshell in the rest of the article, but I wanted to go a little more in depth here.

At the time of El Chango's arrest, the original LFM was split in two. This occurred after the cult-like TCO's original leader, Nazario "El Mas Loco" Moreno Gonzalez was killed back in December. Those in LFM remaining loyal to him, led by Servando "La Tuta" Gómez Martínez, renamed themselves the Knights Templar. Oddly enough, they're considered in some places as the breakaway faction. Those under El Chango kept the LFM name, and almost immediately started battling with the Knights Templar over the original LFM's territory and drug routes.

Shortly before El Chango was arrested, he realized that LFM was almost out of money, and running out of options. What's a narco to do? Form an alliance! And that he did, albeit a strange one. Roughly a year to 18 months ago, the original LFM formed an alliance with the Sinaloa Federation and the Gulf cartel to do battle against Los Zetas. So why join them now? Well, because La Tuta and his Knights Templar are the loyalists, El Chango may have been viewed by La Tuta's allies - the Federation and the Gulf cartel - as an enemy. His best bet for survival would have been to seek out help from Los Zetas.

This bears relevance to what might happen to the remnants of LFM in the days and weeks to come. The Mexican government is convinced that LFM is done for, and that may be true - in their previous incarnation. There are, in my opinion, three major possibilities. First, the Knights Templar could make peace with the LFM remnants and reunite. I think this is the least likely option; too much blood has spilled between the two factions in the last six months. Next is the possibility of the Federation absorbing LFM.Their territories butt up against each other, and it probably wouldn't be too difficult for the Federation to muscle in on that. However, that would anger the Knights Templar, and as far as I know, the Federation and the Knights Templar want to stay in each other's good graces to keep fighting Los Zetas.

That leaves us with the most likely option, which is that Los Zetas will absorb what's left of LFM. They were already in talks to form an alliance, and Los Zetas are just inching to work their way westward into LFM and Knights Templar territory. There have already been reports of a Zetas presence in Guanajuato and Nayarit, so expansion is definitely one of their top goals. Unless LFM reunites - which, again, is unlikely - then there will probably be some increased narco activity in and around LFM's territory, which means more violence to come.

Conflicting accounts about Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano's death

I spent a few hours last night following the minute-by-minute updates on Twitter, as well as speaking to my own sources in the media and on the ground in Mexico. Here's what I know.

 

The Monitor out of McAllen was the first US news outlet to report that Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano Lazcano, head of Los Zetas, had been killed in a shootout between Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel in Matamoros. The reporter claimed to have a solid source on the ground, and based all the reporting on what this anonymous source was saying. The Brownsville Herald was the second US news source to start reporting El Lazca's death. Their reporter is also standing by her source and her story, although the BH has changed their headline and ledes to reflect "reportedly killed," rather than just "killed."

My own sources were being told that there was a meeting going on between Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel in Matamoros, the meeting went horribly bad, and the shooting started. That story would explain what El Lazca was doing there in the first place. Unfortunately, that information was provided by the same source The Monitor was using. I've been told by other journalists who work in the RGV that The Monitor and reporter passing on all this info are notorious for bad information, and for "stirring the pot" to get attention.

Analysis: We need to take a look at a couple of common-sense things when examining the veracity of this story. First, neither the media nor the Mexican government have confirmed that El Lazca was even in Matamoros, let alone in the midst of the gun battle. Second, capos are rarely - if ever - on the front lines of these affairs, so why would El Lazca be the first? Third, media reports have shifted on whether this was a shootout between Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel, or between Los Zetas and the military, or if all three groups were shooting at each other. If Los Zetas have moved into the stronghold of the Gulf cartel - Matamoros - then this is an extremely significant event.

Alejandro Poiré said last night that El Lazca wasn't among the dead, but he hasn't exactly been forthcoming with more details, and neither has SEDENA.

My suggestion for sussing out more truth to the story is to keep an eye on Miguel "Z-40" Treviño Morales, Los Zetas' no. 2. The last I read, he was the plaza boss in Nuevo Laredo. If El Lazca is really dead, Los Zetas will need to replace him in a big hurry, and Z-40 is the obvious choice. If law enforcement or media notice any changes in his people's movements or operations, then there might be something to the rumors.

Bottom line, until I see a body - either displayed by a Mexican coroner, or the Gulf cartel which is rumored to have it - I'm not convinced.

 

"Mexico’s Drug War Is Impacting Communities Well Beyond The Border."

Here is an excerpt from my latest article for Homeland Security Today's "Correspondents' Watch":

"Many Americans believe criminal incidents related to Mexico’s narco-wars are generally limited to Mexico itself, or at least only to border cities and towns in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. But because Mexico-based transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are operating in more than 270 US cities from coast to coast, that isn’t the case... There are criminal activities related to the drug war that are happening thousands of miles from the border... US homeland security officials focus a lot of their efforts and resources on the southwest border in an attempt to mitigate the effects of TCOs on the United States. Because of the publicity surrounding these efforts and media attention paid to the debate over the security of the southwest border, TCO activities in the US interior often go unnoticed."

To read the full article on HSToday.us, please CLICK HERE!

"Questioning Arizona's Sinaloa Gang Bust."

Here is an excerpt from Patrick Corcoran's excellent analysis on InSightCrime.org:

"U.S. authorities announced the break up of an Arizona gang said to be working for Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, though how far this will really be a blow for Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera's organization is a matter of debate. Officials expressed satisfaction at the arrest of 27 members of the Jesus Valencia Rodriguez Organization, capturing more than half the group's known membership... While the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) linked those arrested in Arizona directly to Guzman Loera's Sinaloa Cartel, it is not clear how close the relationship actually is. The authorities said that the Jesus Valencia Rodriguez organization had direct ties not to Guzman or his partner Ismael Zambada, but to the Paez Soto family, which operates in Caborca, Sinaloa. Furthermore, authorities said that the Jesus Valencia Rodriguez group is based in Mexico, so it is unclear how close those arrested were to the top of that organization. In the past, U.S. authorities have played up connections between Americans arrested in drug sweeps and their more notorious suppliers in Mexico, despite a enormous geographical and operational distance between the two... According to the AP, this was typical. Many of those whose arrests were hailed as an unprecedented strike against Guzman and other Mexican capos were low-level American pushers whose place in the global narcotics supply chain was so far removed from Sinaloa that they had no idea that it even existed." Link to Full Article

Analysis: First, I highly recommend that you read the entire article, because it brings up some really important points. Second, I only wanted to add to Patrick's excellent analysis because I've written somewhat tangentially about this subject before. The drug war is filled with exaggerations and misinformation, and it's a source of much frustration for me.

There are dozens of examples like the ones Patrick points out regarding the association between drug dealers arrested here in the US and major cartels in Mexico. In addition to Operation Xcellerator in 2009, which was decidedly NOT a crushing blow to the Sinaloa Federation, US authorities have carried out massive gang sweeps and one operation against members of La Familia Michoacana in 2010. That one was also labeled a "crushing blow," and was similarly no such thing.

Then there are attempts to link domestic marijuana growers and drug-dealing gang members to the major cartels. We know the link is there, but proving it - especially in court - is challenging at best. When Mexicans are brought by the DTOs into the US for the purpose of growing marijuana in our national parks and forests, those Mexicans usually don't know who they're working for. And that's intentional; if they're caught, there's nothing they can confess to the police. Drug distribution operations in the US are run by the DTOs like a terrorist cell structure. There are many levels of middle and lower management, and US-based gangs are subcontracted out to sell to users on the street; they often don't know exactly where the drugs come from for the same reason - they can't be traced back to a particular DTO or drug lord.

While it looks great in the media to tout a major drug bust or arrest of several hundred purported members of a major DTO inside the US, those reports are often inaccurate and misleading. Making a seizure of a few hundred pounds of marijuana here, a few pounds of heroin or methamphetamine there, and arresting a few hundred gang members isn't going to crush American drug demand OR Mexican DTO operations any time soon.

My interview on 4/12 with Al Jazeera (English)

I didn't get a chance to let my readers know about this last-minute interview with Al Jazeera (English) almost two weeks ago. I was on my way out the door to an event in St Louis when they called, so it was pure luck that I was going to be in the city near the studio at the right time that night...and that I left the house with nice clothes and some makeup on! Anyway, we talked at length about the drug war in light of the then-recent discovery of the mass grave in northern Tamaulipas. Enjoy!

 

"The Perilous Intersection of Mexico’s Drug War & Pemex."

Here is an excerpt from this article, which I co-wrote with Jeremy Martin of the Institute of the Americas for the Journal of Energy Security:

"The stillness of early Sunday morning December 19, 2010 was shattered by a thunderous explosion. Residents across San Martin Texmelucan, a small town about 60 miles from Mexico City, were awakened to the latest, and one of the most deadly incidents, involving possible fuel theft at Pemex, Mexico’s national oil company. Many were more than just jolted awake: Over 100 homes were damaged or completely destroyed; 30 people perished and more than 50 were injured. It was a national calamity for a nation and state oil firm that sorely did not need it.

"Explosions, shootouts, deaths and violence have been increasingly seared into the collective minds of citizens in Mexico and the United States as the drug war persists. The battles between the government and competing cartels have been well-documented and the topic has coursed through the agenda of a series of high-level bilateral meetings between the two nations, most recently during Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s trip to Mexico.

"But what has also percolated just below the surface is an alarming intersection between the drug violence and Mexico’s energy sector. For Mexico and Pemex, the increased intensity of the drug war and its damage is but the latest in a string of challenges, and a twist that has seemingly linked two previously unconnected drags on the nation. "

To read the full article, please CLICK HERE.

"DEA leads roundup of cartel suspects as 'message' to drug gang leaders in Mexico."

Here's an excerpt from Alicia Caldwell's Associated Press article in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

"Federal, state and local authorities conducted a massive sweep Thursday in the United States and Latin America of suspected Mexican drug cartel members in the United States in a widespread domestic response to the killing of a U.S. agent in Mexico last week. Carl Pike, assistant special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement Administration's special operations division, said the sweep is a direct reaction to the shooting death of Customs and Immigration Enforcement agent Jaime Zapata in Mexico last week... Pike said the roundup, which began Wednesday and was expected to continue into Friday, is targeting suspected criminals with ties to any Mexican drug cartel to try to disrupt drug trafficking operations in the United States... By Thursday morning, thousands of law enforcement officers in areas including Atlanta, St. Louis, Denver, Detroit, San Antonio, San Diego, Chicago, Newark and Miami had seized more than $4.5 million in cash and nearly 20 guns, arrested more than 100 people and confiscated about 23 pounds of methamphetamine, 107 kilograms of cocaine, 5 pounds of heroin and 300 pounds of marijuana at several hundred locations... Pike said that while the sweeps are a direct response to Zapata's killing, the majority of suspects were already targets of other investigations." Link to Full Article

Analysis: I don't want to take anything away from the hard work all these DEA and ICE agents put into this sweep, especially knowing it was something personal for many of them. But I can't help to say...that's it??? Just 20 guns and less than 500 pounds of drugs that came from a raid by thousands of law enforcement officers? Even the cash, which sounds like a lot, is pennies when you look at the grand scheme of how much money Mexican DTOs are raking in from US drug sales. And the 100 people they arrested? They were already targets of other investigations, so it wasn't that hard to put a list together of people to go after. They were likely very low-level people within the DTO - if they were even a member at all, and not a gang member subcontracted out for drug distribution. That means those 100 people will be replaced in a heartbeat.

Pike said, "We are basically going out to disrupt narcotics distribution here in the United States no matter what cartel their allegiance is to." If he thinks this roundup is going to cause any noticeable disruption in narcotics distribution in the US, he's sadly mistaken. He also said, "If we don't push back, some other 18-year-old cartel member is going to think, 'They didn't do anything, so all U.S. citizens are fair game.'" Of course, the US government and law enforcement agencies had to do something. But the question is, are these kinds of raids actually accomplishing anything substantial, or are they window dressing intended to placate the American people and the Mexican government?

Let's not forget that a similar nationwide raid was conducted in October 2009 against La Familia Michoacana. Over 3,000 US law enforcement agents participated in raids across the country, and they arrested over 300 people associated with LFM. However, it had little effect on LFM as an organization, and drug trafficking in those cities were only mildly disrupted, if at all. Only after Mexican authorities took out LFM's leader a few months ago did the DTO start to show any cracks.

Another question to ask is, why did the DEA and ICE wait to put these simultaneous raids together until an ICE agent was shot and killed in Mexico? I saw the word "respond" and "response" several times in that article. Why are we being reactive and not more proactive? And how does this necessarily avenge Zapata's death? You're taking a few dozen low-level players off the street and a little bit of dope and cash. Maybe some of them work for Los Zetas, but it's probably a mix of DTO allegiances. This raid will not, in any way, serve justice to Zapata's killer or Los Zetas as an organization. Instead of making a big show and going after the minnows, we need a larger and more comprehensive joint strategy for going after the big fish.

Julián Zapata Espinosa and five others arrested for ICE agent's murder

I just finished watching the live broadcast of the SEDENA announcement concerning the arrest of several individuals in connection with the murder of ICE Agent Jaime Zapata. The alleged shooter is Julián "El Piolín" Zapata Espinosa, reportedly the Los Zetas plaza boss for San Luís Potosi. The other guys are pretty much inconsequential, and as it is, I'm having a very hard time finding any information on the main suspect. I did find a report from December 2009 about a raid where a Julián Zapata EspinoZa was arrested in San Luís Potosi, but I don't know if it's the same guy (the spelling of the last name is different). One interesting, and somewhat laughable, detail is that Zapata Espinosa said the shooting was a result of "a confusion," meaning they thought Jaime Zapata and Victor Avila were members of rival cartels...despite the diplomatic tags, their US government ID, and their lack of weapons.

Analysis: I think a lot of people were expecting someone else; perhaps because rumors were floating around that the Mexican army had arrested Jesus "El Mamito" Rejón - a DEA most-wanted narco with a $5 million tag on his head - when he, in fact, had only been named a suspect. There were also rumors floating that the Mexican navy may have killed or captured Miguel "Z-40" Treviño, on of the two Los Zetas chiefs, in Monterrey last night. Neither of those rumors has panned out, or at least, not yet.

Now the question becomes, will the Mexican government extradite Zapata Espinosa to the US? They've been historically more than hesitant to do so because they're not fans of some US states' death penalty. That didn't stop them from extraditing former Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cárdenas Guillen in 2007, but he avoided a potential death penalty by providing good intel to US authorities. I doubt Zapata could provide enough intel to get the same deal, but you never know.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out over the next couple of weeks, mainly to see if the arrests meet the satisfaction of the US government, and if Zapata is the real deal or just a fall guy.

"Homeland Security Implications Of Los Zetas Attack On ICE Agents."

Here's a brief excerpt from my latest article in the News Analysis section of Homeland Security Today's website:

"On February 15, 2011, the landscape of Mexico’s drug war shifted in such a way that it couldn’t help but grab our attention. Two American law enforcement officers—agents with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE—were shot, and one killed, by members of a major Mexican drug trafficking organization. While they weren’t necessarily attacked because they were US federal agents, they were definitely left for dead in spite of it. Much to our national chagrin, this event has dramatic implications for our role in the drug war, and for our national security as a whole."

To read the full article, please CLICK HERE.

Interview by Australia's "Lateline"

I just wanted to let my readers know that an interview I did for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's "Lateline" (similar to NBC's "Dateline") aired last night, and is available online if you'd like to see it! The piece is on Mexican cartels operating within the US, and my brief clip talks about DTOs who grow marijuana in our national parks.

To read the transcript and watch the video, CLICK HERE.

A quick overview of who's fighting whom, and where

I was recently reading a story in the L.A. Times by Daniel Hernandez about the 31 deaths and 15 decapitations in Acapulco in the last week, and how three different cartels were battling for control of the city. I honestly thought it was only two, so you can imagine my surprise when I saw some of the unfamiliar details Hernandez quoted from a story in Mexico's Proceso magazine. I quickly familiarized myself with what was going on (and I've since found clearer sources than the Proceso story), and thought I'd take the opportunity to provide my readers with a very brief overview of which cartels are fighting each other and where.

Let's start with the most complex situation (in my opinion) right now, and that's Acapulco. Over the last couple of years, the Beltrán Leyva Organization (BLO) under the local command of Edgar "La Barbie" Valdez Villareal had been fighting with La Familia Michoacana (LFM) for control of drug deliveries into and trafficking out of the resort city. That got completely messed up with La Barbie's arrest and the death of Arturo Beltrán Leyva. Hector Beltrán Leyva, who took over the BLO after Arturo's death, wanted to distance himself from La Barbie (who was breaking off anyway), so he renamed his faction of the old BLO to the Cartel Pacífico del Sur (CPS), or South Pacific Cartel - also known as "El H" or "La Empresa." In April of last year, graffiti started showing up all over the state of Guerrero with the initials "CPS," and La Barbie's breakaway faction was bearing the brunt of many CPS-initiated murders of hitmen in the area.

Now, the 15 headless corpses that were recently found in Acapulco reportedly had a note attached implying that the Sinaloa Federation's Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán Loera ordered the killings. So here's where it gets ugly. According to Stratfor's Scott Stewart, the CPS has aligned itself with Los Zetas (and old friend of the BLO) against the Federation and LFM. I always thought Acapulco was a BLO/LFM problem, and to an extent I was right; the old BLO is just under the new name of CPS, and La Barbie's faction seems to no longer be a player. But now it looks like El Chapo may be stoking the fire in Guerrero, and that doesn't bode well for residents or tourists in the city.

Moving to Tijuana, things are actually relatively quiet there - for now. Although the AFO emerged victorious after breakaway faction leader Teodoro "El Teo" Garcia Simental was arrested, AFO leader Fernando "El Ingeniero" Sanchez Arellano seems to have entered into an agreement of sorts with the Federation (El Teo's employer after he defected) to move drugs through Tijuana. This explains the relative calm in the city, but we'll see how long that lasts.

Of course, the hottest spot in Mexico has been Ciudad Juárez for a few years now, but the way cartel dynamics are changing there, it may not last the next couple of years. The Federation and the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes Organization (VCFO) have been fighting for control of this most lucrative corridor, although the VCFO has been backed into a corner there recently, and most of the drugs being moved through Juárez belong to the Federation. Some of the local politicians say the majority of the violence stems from gangs fighting for control of the local drug trade, but I don't buy into that.

Moving east into Tamaulipas, the shrinking Gulf cartel (or CDG, for Cartel del Golfo) are fighting with their former enforcers, Los Zetas, for control of routes along the east Texas border and transshipment cities like Monterrey. The border cities of Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa and Matamoros have been hit particularly hard by fights between these two DTOs, and the wealthy enclave of Monterrey is still reeling from the bloody transformation of their city.

There are other hot spots scattered throughout Mexico where the DTOs are fighting each other, so the violence is not just limited to these areas. You'll hear bad news out of places like Michoacán, Morelia, San Luís Potosí, Durango, and others. This is just meant to give you a general idea of who is fighting where and over what.

"Mexican Cartel Threatens to Kill Civilians in Guatemala."

Here is an excerpt from this article in the Latin American Herald Tribune:

"People purporting to speak for Mexico’s Los Zetas drug cartel have threatened to attack civilians in the northern Guatemalan province of Alta Verapaz if Guatemala’s government continues the state of siege it imposed on the region. Reporters for radio stations in Alta Verapaz said Tuesday they have received text messages warning of possible assaults on shopping malls or other public places unless Guatemalan security forces cease counternarcotics operations in the region... President Alvaro Colom’s administration imposed the 30-day state of siege Dec. 19 with the announced aim of expelling Los Zetas from the northern province. The cartel is using Alta Verapaz as a transit corridor and staging area for South American cocaine coming up through Central America, according to authorities... Eighteen suspected Zetas have been taken into custody since the state of siege was declared." Link to Full Article

Analysis: This is yet another example that supports my argument that Mexican DTOs are increasingly turning to terrorist tactics, and that considering them to be mere organized crime groups is to underestimate their capabilities - and their motives.

Los Zetas have a pretty good thing going in northern Guatemala. If you think corruption and police incompetence is rampant in Mexico, you should see the situation in its neighbor to the south. Los Zetas have been able to train, smuggle, and operate in general without any impediments there, so it's obviously in their best interest to maintain control over government forces and the people in Alta Verapaz.

For sure, the 30-day state of siege the Guatemalan government has implemented there isn't ideal, but it can't be more than a minor annoyance for Los Zetas. Even Guatemalan President Colom has come out and said he doesn't have enough soldiers and police to deploy to the area to really get the job done, although every day his government is singing about the successes they're having there. I'm always concerned about any sort of "state of siege" in a Latin American country. It essentially means martial law, and pretty much always leads to a rash of human rights abuses.

Moving on to the more disturbing details, what would Los Zetas have to gain by threatening innocent civilians with death, and spreading fear among the populace? The same thing that terrorists have to gain by doing the same thing in other parts of the world: pressure on the government to bend to the Zetas' will. Guatemalans don't want to die, and certainly not at the hands of some brutal Mexican DTO. If the Guatemalan government can't demonstrate to the people that it can take care of business in Alta Verapaz cleanly and quickly, then things are going to get ugly, and fast. 

It doesn't help that we're talking about Los Zetas here. Sure, they're not the original group that deserted from GAFES and has all the high-speed low-drag special forces skills they learned on active duty. But much of that training has been passed on to current members, and they're still one of the better-armed, better-trained, and better-funded DTOs in Mexico. They're also easily one of the most violent - neck and neck with La Familia for that title, in my opinion - and rarely hesitate to demonstrate their violent talents.

Honestly, I admire the Guatemalan government for stepping up and doing what they feel they need to do to protect their people, despite knowing they'll get criticized for and likely have some human rights problems down the road - because you know the 30 days is going to get extended at least once. But I fear that the Guatemalan soldiers and police in Alta Verapaz are showing up with knives to a gunfight, and I'm not looking forward to seeing the likely grisly results of their confrontations with Los Zetas over the next few weeks.

"Mexico: Brutal La Familia cartel chief killed."

Here is an excerpt from Alexandra Olson's Associated Press article:

"Known as 'The Craziest One,' he indoctrinated gang members in a pseudo-Christian ideology, and purportedly wrote a book of moral values for his cult-like cartel — all the while gruesomely decapitating his foes and selling cocaine and methamphetamine by the ton. In many ways Nazario Moreno Gonzalez, who the government says was killed during two days of shootouts between his gang and federal police in the western state of Michoacán, was the most bizarre of Mexico's druglords... Police learned that Moreno — also known as "El Chayo" or "The Doctor" — was killed in a clash Thursday between cartel gunmen and federal police, said Alejandro Poire, the government spokesman for security issues. Poire said cartel gunmen fled with several of their casualties and Moreno's body has not been recovered. But a statement from the presidential office said his death has been confirmed... Moreno, 40, was considered the ideological leader of La Familia, setting a code of conduct for its members that prohibits using hard drugs or dealing them within Mexican territory. He purportedly wrote a religiously tinted book of values for the cartel, sometimes known as 'The Sayings of the Craziest One.'... La Familia has since become one of the biggest methamphetamine traffickers to the United States. But Mexico's government claims the gang has been severely weakened after four years of fighting off its rivals and security forces." Link to Full Article

Analysis: I'm a little concerned that Moreno's body hasn't shown up yet, despite the fact that Mexican authorities are confirming his death. I've watched too many soap operas, TV dramas, and movies where the bad guy shows up again after no one can find the body. But for the purposes of my analysis, we'll make the (perhaps premature) assumption that Moreno was, in fact, killed by Mexican forces.

As you've read in my previous posts after the death or capture of major kingpins, the two things we want to know are: what will it mean for the organization, and what will it mean for the overall levels of drug violence in the relevant parts of Mexico. Before we get into that, I want to do a brief compare-and-contrast of La Familia to other Mexican DTOs by bringing in an example from South America.

When you look at South American terrorist/guerrilla groups like the FARC, ELN, MRTA, etc., they have tons in common. They're usually Marxist/Leninist, have a beef with the government only in their country, and are involved to varying degrees in the drug trade. One important thing to note is that most of these organizations are structured to withstand the loss of one or several top people. The FARC, in particular, has taken some major leadership hits in the last two years, and is still around and killing people in Colombina. Another important thing to note is that these groups operate around and are motivated by a large idea or concept; in most cases, it's communism and the overthrow of the imperialist state, although these days it's drug profits from the manufacture and distribution of cocaine.

However, one group in South America stands out, and that's Shining Path in Peru. They're also communist and want to overthrow the state, but they're a cult of personality that was centered around one man, Abimaél Guzmán. He was a professor who recruited students into his cult-like organization, and eventually introduced the Maoist model of violent insurgency into the group. They were deeply involved in the Peruvian cocaine trade, and spent over a decade terrorizing the Peruvian people.

Then in 1993, Guzmán was captured and later incarcerated. His successor - never as popular as he was - was captured in 1999. The real downfall of Shining Path, though, really started when Guzmán was caught because the whole organization centered around him and his ideals. It was a classic case of, cut off the head of the snake and the rest of the snake dies.

Moving back to Mexico, I see a lot of parallels between La Familia and Shining Path. More specifically, I see a lot of similarities between Guzmán and Moreno regarding the ways in which they started and ran their respective organizations. The question now is, will La Familia - now that they've lost their leader - go the same route as Shining Path?

Of course, one is a drug trafficking organization and the other is a terrorist group, although I believe the definitional gap between those two is getting narrower all the time. But groups like these tend to have a harder time surviving the replacement of a lost leader. La Familia is one of the more aggressively expanding DTOs in Mexico right now, and they control a lucrative share of the meth trade in southwest Mexico. They've also recently entered into an agreement of sorts with the Federation and the Gulf cartel to fend off the powerful Zetas. But will these advances hold up in the absence of Moreno?

We'll find out over the next few weeks, but I think things will be more challenging for La Familia than it would be for another, more "traditional" Mexican DTO just because of the nature of their organization. I can't speculate on who might replace him, but whoever it ends up being, they'll have a tough test to pass.

"Rights group criticizes detention of accused teen hit man in Mexico."

Here's an excerpt from Nick Valencia's article on CNN.com:

"As state authorities in Mexico asked federal prosecutors to take over the case of a 14-year-old accused of working as a drug-cartel hit man, the head of a children's rights organization criticized authorities' handling of the teen's detention. Martin Perez, director of Mexico's Children's Rights Network, said late Friday that authorities should not have given television cameras and newspaper photographers access to the 14-year-old after his capture Thursday night... 'Everyone has the right to be presumed innocent, and also, it could put his life at serious risk. We have to remember that this is a fight between criminal organizations,' he said... Morelos state Gov. Marco Adame told reporters that he had asked for an inquiry into the teen's migratory status after preliminary reports indicated that the 14-year-old was carrying a birth certificate issued in San Diego, California, when authorities detained him and two of his sisters at an airport in central Mexico... Citing unnamed military sources, Notimex said that the teen told authorities that he was a member of the Pacifico Sur cartel and had killed four people under orders from its leader. He also said he was a U.S. citizen and was under the influence of drugs when he carried out the crimes, according to Notimex... Sylvia Longmire, a former U.S. Air Force officer and senior intelligence analyst specializing in Latin America and Mexico's drug war, said Mexican drug lords often use young children. 'We've known for some time that Mexican-hired assassins were getting younger, but the story of a 14-year-old getting involved in this grisly business still carries some shock value,' Longmire said." Link to Full Article

Analysis: OK, yes, I have an ulterior motive for picking this story to comment on...I was quoted in it. That doesn't change the fact that the story of this 14 year-old kid highlights some of the major societal problems Mexico is facing. Nick Valencia, the CNN producer who put this story together, asked me to comment on what this kid's situation says about the state of Mexico's youth. Here's what I replied:

"We've known for some time that Mexican hired assassins were getting younger, but the story of a 14 year-old getting involved in this grisly business still carries some shock value. It's a testament to the fact that much of Mexico's youth has few prospects down the road, either in education or employment. Even if a teenager or pre-teen were to stay in school and finish, they'd be hard-pressed to find a legitimate job that would pay anywhere near what the cartels pay to either sell drugs or kill people. There's also the fact that parental guidance for these younger kids is often absent, either because the parents have split or both are working several jobs with long hours in fields, on ranches, or in factories. This leaves their children to get stars in their eyes when they see the glamorous lifestyle that the narcos lead, with their armored cars, tailored suits, gold-plated guns, gorgeous girlfriends, and bodyguards. This won't be the last time we hear stories of young children picking up arms and killing people because it pays, and because they think it's cool."

One other thing I'd like to mention about the story that I didn't care for. Martin Perez, the director of that children's rights group, says that everyone in Mexico has the right to be viewed as innocent until proven guilty. That statement is completely wrong, and shows Mr. Perez is either politicizing the situation or has little grasp of his own country's highly flawed justice system. In Mexico, you're actually considered guilty until proven innocent. Only recently has Calderón made a push for the introduction of oral arguments in trials. Evidence is presented on paper only, and there's no jury; the judges make the decisions.

If Perez is worried about this kid's life being at risk and not getting a fair shake in court, then maybe he should advocate for his extradition to the US, just like Edgar "La Barbie" Valdez Villarreal. Maybe then, through some kind of plea deal, we could find out more about DTO tactics of recruiting young kids as hitmen, and this 14 year-old might live to see 15. Wait...I just found out he's not wanted in the US, so extradition isn't an option. Now folks who are concerned about his future had better hope that the publicity his story is getting will shine a spotlight on his legal proceedings so that Mexican officials will be more likely to do things by the book. I won't hold my breath.

My comments on cartel leadership changes in KRGV interview...

I was interviewed yesterday for a piece by KRGV News in the Rio Grande Valley on changes in cartel leadership stemming from arrests and deaths. Check out the video here:

http://www.krgv.com/mediacenter/local.aspx?videoid=170682%40krgv.web.entriq.net

Just as a note, I did NOT say I knew for sure that Tony Tormenta had been replaced. I said that it was up to Jorge "El Coss" Costilla Sánchez to decide if he wanted to run the Gulf cartel by himself or replace Tormenta by promoting a lieutenant from within. 

Three DTO-related incidents on US soil in six weeks

Here is an excerpt from "One killed in suspected execution style shooting" on Action 4 News/ValleyCentral.com:

"Mission Police are reporting one of two victims dead, after a suspected execution style shooting Tuesday night... The shooting reportedly happened last night near the Cimarron Country Club, at the intersection of Glasscock and Rio Grande Drive. Police say several gunshots were fired... A number of vehicles were seen at the location of the shooting with Mexican license plates. Four suspects are reportedly in police custody, while police continue to look for two more suspects." Link to Full Story

Here is an excerpt from  "Police probe whether beheading was 'hit' from drug cartel" by Mike Sakal in the East Valley Tribune:

"Chandler police are investigating the possibility that the stabbing death and decapitation of a 38-year-old Phoenix resident believed to be an illegal immigrant from Mexico earlier this month was a “hit” by a Mexican drug cartel against a member who betrayed them. Alejandro Cota-Monroy, whose decapitated body was found inside an apartment at 300 West Fairview St. the morning of Oct. 10 amid a bloody and gruesome scene, may have ripped off a Mexican cartel of illegal drugs, according to Chandler police Detective Dave Ramer... Initial media reports indicated that the man’s death could be connected to a Mexican religious ritual, the Saint of Death, because candles and a Ouija border were reportedly found at the scene. But Ramer said the slaying had “nothing to do” with the religion, although drug dealers and drug cartel members are known to participate in it because they believe if they do, it will protect them from law enforcement." Link to Full Article

Here is an excerpt from "Two Zetas executed in Brownsville, Texas" in The Brownsville Herald:

"Authorities have linked Thursday’s double homicide on FM 511 in the northwest outskirts of Brownsville. Texas, to Mexican drug cartels and are investigating the killings as spillover violence from the Tamaulipas war between the Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas. The bodies of Omar Castillo Flores “El Omarcillo”, 25, and Jose Guadalupe Lopez Perez, 38, were found inside a gray Dodge Ram pickup that was riddled with bullets, police spokesman Eddie Garcia said Friday. He said the truck had a Mexican license plate on the back bumper, and he identified both men as residents of Mexico... Brownsville Police Chief Carlos Garcia confirmed the information provided by Mexican law enforcement officials who stated that Omar Castillo and Jose Lopez were members of the Zetas criminal organisation and that Omar Castillo was the younger brother of former Gulf Cartel member Alberto "Beto Fabe" Castillo Flores." Link to Full Article

Analysis: While these three incidents happened in two different states, three different cities, and six weeks apart, they signal a disturbing possibility: Mexican DTOs might be more willing to take risks and engage in violent activity against their selected targets in the US.

Not that violent activity by DTOs on US soil is anything new. In August 2008, four suspects were paid between $400,000 and $450,000 to torture five victims with electric shock and slit their throats in an Alabama apartment. The murders have been tied to a Mexican DTO that transports cocaine, methamphetamine and marijuana. In February 2009, gang members threw an inactive grenade into a strip club in Pharr, Texas. In August 2009, 16 members of the "Los Palillos" gang were indicted for the torture and murder of nine people in San Diego on behalf of a Mexican DTO.

In all fairness, there's no concrete proof (yet) that either the McAllen country club shooting or the Chandler beheading are definitely connected to Mexican DTOs, but I'd be willing to bet money that they are. The real question becomes, are we seeing a trend, or are these three incidents just becoming more noticeable?

We know a couple of things. First, hitmen working for DTOs are starting out younger and younger, which means they lack the experience and expertise of their predecessors. That means hits these days tend to be messier and more public. We also know that some DTOs in some places are getting more desperate to hang on to their territory and their share of drug profits. This means they may be willing to take more risks when it comes to engaging in violent activity on this side of the border.

It's so hard to say because criminals tend to not report crimes committed against them. It could be just a sheer coincidence that these incidents happened within a few weeks of each other, or that the police found out about them; the killers could have just been careless in all three cases. However, I'm a firm believer that once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a conspiracy. I prefer not to be an alarmist, but I'm concerned that these incidents were so blatant, and may have been designed to send a message. I'm not raising the red flag just yet, but I know I'll be keeping an eye out for other incidents like this in the next few weeks.

"Mexico drug gang's offer to disband: Is it for real?"

Here is an excerpt from Tim Johnson's article in McClatchy Newspapers:

"One of Mexico's major narcotics gangs reportedly offered Wednesday to disband if the government would intensify security in the state of Michoacan, the cradle of its drug empire, and keep rival drug gangs out. The offer came in a series of cloth banners and printed flyers in Michoacan state early in the day. Their authenticity couldn't be determined. None of Mexico's major drug cartels has ever made such an offer. Since gangsters don't often give up their lucrative enterprises, the statement by the Michoacan Family, a cartel known for religious zeal, beheadings and tentacles as far as California's Central Valley, was met with skepticism... The author of the 500-word statement lashed out at the central government, playing off intense regional loyalties that often make Michoacan natives suspicious of federal authority." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Shortly after news of LFM's "offer" came out, several of us who follow these sorts of things were debating back and forth on Twitter regarding the authenticity of the banners and flyers. Originally, when people were asking if the offer was fake, I took it to mean people wanted to know if the banners and flyers themselves were truly written by LFM, or put out there by someone else. That didn't make a ton of sense to me, so I'm taking it to mean that people want to know if the offer itself is genuine. If that's the case, then I really doubt it.

LFM is kinda nutty, as DTOs go. You can read plenty about them HERE, but to sum it up, they've been an up-and-comer in Mexico's drug war for a few years now. They're different from other DTOs because they're evangelical in the way they recruit members and reach out to communities to obtain support for their drug operations - whether that support is voluntary or coerced. They started out with a mission to eradicate meth use and kidnapping in Michoacán, but now they're the biggest traffickers of the stuff in the region; that's something to make you snicker. LFM is also extremely aggressive, and is actively expanding their territory to avoid being hemmed in; this is why we're seeing increased violence in Acapulco, in particular. They've taken beheadings and dismemberments as a way to send a message to a whole new level, too.

LFM is into the missives and messages, and making it look like they're on the side of the Mexican people. Of course LFM isn't going to disband any time soon, but even if they were serious in those banners and flyers, they wouldn't have to. Everyone knows the Mexican authorities aren't going to be providing that kind of safety and security to the Mexican people any time soon. Honestly, it's a great PR stunt, and one that we've seen from other violent groups in Mexico and Latin America. The EPR in Mexico, the FARC and ELN in Colombia, Shining Path in Peru...they all need(ed) the support of the peasants in their countries to survive as organizations and move them towards their different goals. LFM wants the support of the Michoacanos by way of not reporting their activities to the police, or joining their ranks - again, whether that support is provided voluntarily or not is irrelevant.

So really, LFM had nothing to lose by offering to disband - assuming they authorized those banners and flyers - even though they likely didn't mean it. They're just calling the Mexican government's bluff, and courting support from the people of Michoacán by trying to come off as the good guys in the drug war. Next, we'll see if they hire a publicist from New York or Los Angeles.

"Authorities Say Cartel Leader’s Death Won’t Curb Violence."

Here is an excerpt from this story on KRGV.com:

"Over the weekend, more than 50 people were killed in several gunbattles in Matamoros. Among the dead, according to Mexican officials, the head of the Gulf Cartel Antonio Ezequiel Cardenas Guillen. Guillen, also known as "Tony Tormenta," was killed along with four of his gunmen. Just one day after his death, rival drug gangs hung signs on bridges and other public places gloating about his death. Authorities said with Cardenas now out of the way, rival Zetas will be even stronger and keep the violence coming, as rival drug gangs battle for power." Link to Full Article

Analysis: As I'm sure most of you have heard or read one way or another, on Nov, 5m Mexican authorities killed Antonio Ezequiel "Tony Tormenta" Cárdenas Guillen, one of the two heads of the Gulf cartel (CDG). Of course what everyone wants to know is, what will this mean for the DTO dynamic in northeastern Mexico, and how will it affect violence levels?

Well, I don't think things are going to get better, but they're not going to necessarily get worse. What happens depends mainly on how quickly Ezequiel can be replaced, if he's going to be replaced at all. What most media outlets are not telling you is that "Tony Tormenta" was not the only guy in charge of the CDG. He shared leadership with Jorge "El Coss" Costilla Sanchez, who is still around and actually has a pretty big price tag on his head - placed there by the US government. As you may know, Ezequiel was the brother of the notorious former CDG leader Osiel Cárdenas Guillen, who was arrested by Mexican authorities in 2003 and extradited to the US in 2007. 

Stratfor has something very interesting to say about Tony and El Coss: "Costilla Sanchez was said to be the operational leader of the cartel, with Tony Tormenta enjoying his position [as the Tamaulipas plaza boss] only due to his relationship to his brother, Osiel. In many ways, Tony Tormenta’s death could prove beneficial to Gulf cartel operations." I haven't read anything about Ezequiel being replaced by a lieutenant being promoted from within the CDG, so it's possible that Costilla Sanchez will try to maintain control of the CDG on his own.

If you hadn't heard, Los Zetas have been fighting with the CDG for control of the Texas-Mexico border region for the better part of a year and a half. Los Zetas will likely see Ezequiel's death as an opportunity to wrest control of some plazas - particularly Reynosa and Matamoros, from the CDG. However, I agree with Stratfor's assessment that the CDG will likely be prepared for this. I said in my interview with John Vause on CNN International a few days ago that I think this will be just a hiccup for the CDG. Yes, they've been weakened by Los Zetas and Mexican government actions over the last couple of years, but they still have plenty of fight left in them. We'll probably see more violence in northeastern Mexico over the next month or two as Los Zetas test the waters, but I think things will eventually go back to how they were in Tamaulipas before Ezequiel's death...at least until someone picks off Costilla Sanchez, that is. Then you'll be seeing another post from me on the CDG's fate.

Read more: Mexico Security Memo: Nov. 8, 2010 | STRATFOR 

UPDATE: 20 kidnap victims in Acapulco may have had ties to La Familia

On Nov. 1, Stratfor published a security memo indicating the 20 male tourists kidnapped in Acapulco a couple of weeks ago had ties to La Familia Michoacana. Here's a brief excerpt from the report:

"A group of 20 tourists from Morelia, Michoacan state, reportedly kidnapped Oct. 1 in the Costa Azul neighborhood of Acapulco, Guerrero state, was sent on orders from La Familia Michoacana (LFM), Reforma reported Oct. 26, citing Mexican federal security sources. According to the report, LFM sent 22 men to Acapulco (two of the men eluded capture) to “heat up” the region as part of its struggle with its rivals from the Cartel de la Sierra, headed by Edgar “La Barbie” Valdez Villarreal. Some of their objectives reportedly included assassinating the mayors of Acapulco and nearby San Marco and attacking area schools. Mexican authorities learned that Valdez Villareal had ordered the kidnapping of the 20 during the interrogation of Isidro “El Quirri” Juarez Solis, allegedly the plaza boss for the Acapulco region for the Cartel de la Sierra, whom they detained several days after the 20 were kidnapped." 

Analysis: The folks at Stratfor don't believe the men are tourists, and for the most part are going with the information they received from the federal police. I can't say that I'm too surprised by the information, but sending 22 guys with no criminal record to assassinate all those high-level people? Even Stratfor claims those goals are very ambitious by Mexican standards, and I believe they're even more ambitious for a smaller - albeit increasingly powerful - DTO like La Familia. Plus, the Reforma source Strafor is using is someone within the federal police. Maybe I'm getting too cynical for my own good, but there's the possibility that for PR purposes, the feds want the public to believe those men were "bad guys" and not innocents being kidnapped and mass-murdered in a major tourist town. Yes, they could have been dirty too, like everyone else, but....I don't know.

Now you have to throw into the mix the fact that on Nov. 3, 18 bodies were found in a mass grave near Acapulco. There hasn't been any confirmation yet that the bodies are 18 of the 20 men who were kidnapped. However, also on Nov. 3, a video was posted on the Internet of two men being interrogated about the kidnapping. An Associated Press story reported they killed "the Michoacanos" in an act of revenge against La Familia, and were ordered to bury those bodies in Tres Palos outside Acapulco. The same story also reports Guerrero state investigators say they corroborated the men worked as mechanics and had no criminal records. Investigators also say they could find no evidence linking the men to any gang and have speculated the group may have been targeted by mistake.

So which is it? La Familia operatives sent to assassinate several high-level and extremely difficult targets who were targeted for kidnapping and death by a rival cartel? Or tourists who were victims of mistaken identity? Both stories are plausible, and while I have several tons of respect for the analysts at Stratfor, I don't know that the federal police and subsequent Reforma story completely passes the smell test. Even the YouTube video of the interrogation could be DTO propaganda taking advantage of the situation. If those men were targeted accidentally, no one will ever really know because dead bodies in a mass grave aren't too chatty. We'll see what else comes out of the investigation over the next few weeks.

"The case of the 20 missing Mexican tourists doesn't add up."

Here is an excerpt from Ken Ellingwood's article in the L.A. Times:

"It's one of the more puzzling episodes in a drug war heaped with unsolved cases: 20 Mexican men travel to Acapulco together and are kidnapped en masse as soon as they arrive. wo weeks later, there has been no trace of the men. Investigators have yet to announce any good leads, even though two others from the group were not taken. Against the backdrop of Mexico's extraordinary drug violence, it's tempting to write off the Sept. 30 disappearance as another grim skirmish between rival traffickers... But in the Acapulco case, the pieces don't add up neatly. Relatives back in the western state of Michoacan insist they were no drug henchmen, but ordinary guys: mechanics, students, deliverymen, an accountant, a physician. Loved ones said the friends and co-workers saved up for months for an annual, guys-only weekend in the seaside resort... Authorities have made comments casting doubt that the men were mere tourists, but have not specified a motive for the disappearances...  A state police commander first raised an eyebrow, saying it was unusual for a group of men to go on vacation without family members. And Zeferino Torreblanca Galindo, governor of the state of Guerrero, where Acapulco is located, was also quick to express skepticism. 'We assume it has to do with organized crime,' Torreblanca said a day after the news broke. 'I don't think anyone comes to deliberately carry out an attack on 20 tourists.' When the families complained that officials appeared to be blaming the victims, the authorities backed off, announcing that checks showed that none of the missing men had criminal records. When the men's vehicles were recovered, investigators found signs of a road trip — suitcases, beer, cookies — but no weapons or contraband. But last week, Mexico's tourism minister, Gloria Guevara, reignited tensions when she said the missing men 'didn't fit the usual profile' of a tourist. 'A tourist usually travels with family, has a hotel reservation, arrives directly at his hotel and fits certain profiles,' she told a congressional committee when a question about the case came up. Guevara stopped short of tying the men to criminal activities, but the implication seemed clear. Families of the men fired back, accusing Guevara of a 'lack of responsibility' and offering papers showing the group had reserved rooms for the three-day stay in a hotel they did not publicly identify." Link to Full Article

Analysis: To make this quick and dirty, know first off that the Mexican government can't afford to say that tourists - whether Mexican or foreign doesn't really matter - are being kidnapped in a high-profile resort area like Acapulco. I think those statements by government officials saying the men didn't fit a certain "tourist profile" are complete garbage. A tourist profile? Really? Can you honestly say that an American family consisting of a married couple and two or three kids heading to a major theme park for a week manages their vacation in the same way as four fraternity brothers from a big college heading to the Florida panhandle for Spring Break?

Speculation aside on these men's traveling habits, let's take a look at the facts. First, all the men had clean records. You can't go on the family's claims because they always say their family members aren't involved in drug dealing, but the records speak for themselves. Also, although nine of the victims were mechanics, the others had varied jobs in different places. This was also described as an annual trip, meaning it's not the first time these guys got into a few cars together and headed to Acapulco for a break. 

So what did happen to them? Was it another case of mistaken identity, as the current theory goes for the Hartley/Falcon Lake case? Los Zetas are currently fighting with La Familia Michoacana for control of Acapulco. Was this another case of amateur "Zetitas" carrying out an unsanctioned attack against a group of men they mistakenly thought posed a threat?

The worst-case scenario, of course, would be that the men were easy targets and kidnapped for ransom, or like the 72 migrants, offered the opportunity to work for Los Zetas in lieu of execution. All we know is that there have been no ransom demands, and there have been no heads or bodies showing up with notes attached. When DTOs want to send a message, they don't take too much time to put the bodies on public display, so it's likely the bodies of those 20 men have been summarily disposed of already. I don't believe they were picked off solely because they were tourists, but even if this was a DTO mistake, the Mexican government has to publicly push the assumption that the men were somehow dirty.

And this is where the real problem comes in. We're seeing more and more innocent bystanders being kidnapped for ransom, or shot and killed in cross-fire between narcos, or extorted at their places of business. The easiest (and most common) explanation for the death of a Mexican citizen by narco is that they were involved in the drug trade. That easy explanation can't be made in every case anymore, which means the Mexican government has to get up off its rear end and actually start investigating cases. I don't have the exact percentage handy, but the percentage of murder and kidnapping cases actually investigated with any level of professionalism and thoroughness is in the single digits. Even in the Hartley case, which was called off after two weeks, Mexican authorities acknowledged they spent way longer looking for his body than they would have for a Mexican citizen.

Will we ever know what happened to those men, or why it happened? Probably not. We can assume with some confidence that Los Zetas were likely involved (although La Familia is always a possibility, since the men were from Michoacán). Unfortunately, we can also assume that the Mexican government will continue to make it sound (whether intentional or not) that the 20 victims somehow had it coming to them. Whether they did or not, the authorities need to realize that thorough investigations for murder and kidnapping should be the rule and not the exception.

What really happened to the Hartleys on Falcon Lake?

Analysis: I know I normally start off my posts with excerpts from news stories, but there are too many small pieces of this story in separate articles. I'll try my best to encapsulate everything here. 

You probably already know the basic story, but in case you don't... David and Tiffany Hartley went for a ride on their jet skis last month on Falcon Lake, which straddles the Texas-Mexico border. There are some beautiful church ruins (#12 on the map) that are partially submerged on the Mexican side that they were trying to check out. While they were near that area, Tiffany says they were approached by men in three boats who started shooting. They began to flee towards the US side of the lake, but then David got shot and fell off his jet ski. Tiffany tried to pull him up onto her ski, but she says they started shooting at her. So, she had to leave him and beat feet to avoid getting shot herself.

Tiffany has provided a few different versions of the story, which has caused authorities on both sides of the border to be a little suspicious. David's body hasn't been found yet, and it will probably never be found. I've also read accounts that say David was shot from the front, which doesn't jive with him getting shot while heading away from the "pirates" towards the US side of the lake. The same account said the Hartleys had just returned from a luxury cruise and bought a house filled with new furniture shortly after attending a seminar for people having financial trouble.

The latest analysis by Stratfor says the shooting was a case of mistaken identity. David apparently had worked in Reynosa, and their car had Tamaulipas plates. This led Los Zetas to believe the Hartleys may be rival DTO Gulf cartel scouts. Stratfor also surmises that the killing was unauthorized, and the accidental work of young amateurs who have probably been killed by their cartel bosses already. The head Mexican investigator has already been killed, with his severed head delivered to Mexican authorities, and the search for David's body has been suspended indefinitely.

So what really happened? I have to tell you, this story doesn't pass the smell test for me. There's too much that doesn't make sense, and Tiffany has told too many different versions of what happened. I keep going back to the motive of the alleged shooters. Robbery (which is what pirates do)? No way...two jet skiers wouldn't exactly have a lot of cash on them, and I haven't read anywhere that the pirates took David's jet ski - or even tried to take Tiffany's. Retribution? I was told by a reporter friend of mine who got an off-the-record tip that the Hartleys may have been involved in some drug activity, but that hasn't been fleshed out enough. For fun? I still think it's too dangerous for cartels to start randomly shooting at innocent Americans just to do it because they know the response will likely be strong and swift. 

I think the Stratfor explanation makes sense. I know that many DTOs are hard up for shooters, so sometimes they have to hire younger punks with itchy trigger fingers. I just didn't expect that Los Zetas - probably the strongest DTO next to the Sinaloa Federation - would be so hard up that they'd have to go that route. Then again, they did just execute 72 South American migrants who refused to work for them. The more-then-slightly cynical explanation that "the wife did it" also makes sense, especially if the Hartley's were hard up for money and she was looking for a life insurance payout. However, we know Los Zetas were definitely involved in the incident - whatever really happened - and it's unlikely Tiffany had entered into some sort of arrangement with them. 

The Mexican authorities do not want to get back in this game for fear of losing more investigators, and they've already spent way more time looking for David than they would have looking for a Mexican citizen. I highly doubt David's body will ever be found - I agree with Stratfor that Los Zetas had to eliminate it - and we'll never have an account of events outside of Tiffany's side of the story. One can only hope that US citizens actually start heeding the advice given in State Department travel warnings and stay away from places like Falcon Lake known to be highly active drug smuggling areas.

"Edgar Valdez Villarreal – suspected drug lord 'La Barbie' – arrested in Mexico."

Here is an excerpt from Sara Miller Llana's article in the Christian Science Monitor:

"Mexico officials announced late Monday that they captured Edgar Valdez Villarreal, or “La Barbie,” one of the country's most-wanted men. Authorities have described him as a powerful   drug lord responsible for supplying the American market with cocaine... Mr. Valdez, who was born in Texas and nicknamed “La Barbie” for his fair complexion, was captured Monday outside Mexico City. He is the third major trafficking suspect to be taken down in the past eight months... The government says that Valdez, 37, is a top player in the Beltran Leyva Cartel, and that his power has grown since the group´s founder Arturo Beltran Leyva was killed late last year. The group is suspected of being behind the growing violence in the central state of Mexico, bringing the types of beheadings and gangland violence to the capital region that were once confined to border towns hundreds of miles away... But it is unclear whether the capture will quell violence or cause it to increase in the short-term." Link to Full Article

Analysis: You can chalk up another victory for the good guys, as "La Barbie" was definitely a big fish. Villarreal has been on the Mexican drug scene for a while, and has made quite a name for himself in the world. He has a reputation for being very brutal, and is credited with posting a gruesome video on YouTube of himself torturing rival narcos.

Villarreal is a fascinating figure for those of us who follow the drug war. He's from Texas, relatively young at age 36, and comes from a good family. He played football in high school and had a pretty normal American life, until he discovered Mexico's underworld across the border. Not only did he seem to like it better, but he found he was really good at drug trafficking. Tales have been spun about him and his lifestyle that have turned him into a sort of myth or legend; he dresses extremely well, is a womanizer, has nice cars, eats only at fine restaurants, etc. No matter what stories are true or not, the bottom line remains that he's a drug trafficker and a ruthless killer.

I can tell you it wasn't easy to catch him. The Mexican authorities are saying his arrest was the culmination of a year-long operation, and just the fact that the US government had a $2 million price on his head should tell you something. There's currently no word on whether or not he'll be extradited to the US, as he has been indicted here.

I can also tell you that Hector is happy. That would be Hector Beltrán Leyva, with whom Villarreal has been fighting for control of what's left of the BLO. Central Mexico and the capital have been relatively quiet in recent years, but since the death of BLO chief Arturo Beltrán Leyva in December 2009, things have gotten bad. Villarreal has been working on the enforcement side of things for several years, and probably saw Arturo's death - and perhaps Hector's perceived lack of capability - as an opportunity to seize more power. So he and Hector have been battling it out through public displays of death and destruction.

This isn't to say that Hector will have smooth sailing from here on out. I'm not very familiar with Villarreal's people or how organized they are. SOMEONE is going to see La Barbie's arrest as an opportunity no matter what, especially since the BLO is one of those DTOs that is crumbling and ripe for the picking. More to come, I'm sure...

"What's behind Mexican migrant killings still unclear."

Here is an excerpt from Tim Johnson's article in McClatchy Newspapers:

"President Felipe Calderon on Friday accused the gunmen who killed 72 illegal migrants in northern Mexico this week of "incalculable savagery" as his government attempted to depict the   major drug gang implicated in the slaughter as weakened and desperate. The discovery of the grisly massacre Tuesday night at a ranch near San Fernando, about 45 miles southwest of Brownsville, Texas, put the spotlight on Los Zetas, a crime syndicate based along the Gulf Coast of Mexico that has international tentacles. The massacre — and its murky motives — continued to shake Mexico on Friday... Calderon himself also confirmed that two state criminal investigators who'd been assigned to probe the slayings had vanished... Alejandro Poire of the National Security Council said the gunmen had captured the migrants and given them a choice: Work for Los Zetas as gunslingers and peons, or face death. When the 58 male and 14 female migrants resisted, they were killed... However, an Austin, Texas-based strategic intelligence research group, Stratfor, said in a report Friday that Los Zetas, sometimes called simply the 'Z's,' indeed are hurting... Another analyst of Mexico's security situation, Edgardo Buscaglia, cast doubt on official accounts of the massacre and criticized Calderon's handling of it... 'The president, unfortunately, looks at all of this as a media war,' Buscaglia said. The portrayal of Los Zetas as weakened 'is a marketing story' to deal with the international black eye Mexico has suffered with the massacre,' he said." Link to Full Article

Analysis: So unfortunately, it looks like there's still a lot of doubt surrounding this incident, despite the extensive media coverage over the last few days. Was it really Los Zetas who committed this heinous act? If so, are they weakened or stronger than ever? And did they kill the migrants because they needed the manpower, or simply because they couldn't pay ransom?

The reason that the Mexican government believes it was Los Zetas is because the one man who survived the mass killing told authorities that the shooters identified themselves as such. I know of several instances where Los Zetas have had no problems taking credit for things or advertising themselves, so that's not out of the ordinary. However, this also sets them up to be framed, as it were, by rivals. The area where the massacre occurred has been Gulf cartel territory for some time, but Borderland Beat reported in mid-June that gunmen belonging to Los Zetas had attacked other cities and towns under the control of the Gulf cartel in the previous two weeks, including Mier, Reynosa, Tampico and Valle Hermoso. It's likely the killers were Zetas, but keep in mind the possibility that men from the Gulf cartel could be setting up their former partners. And who better to take the bait than non-Mexican migrants who aren't as familiar with the workings of the different Mexican DTOs? I know it's a stretch, and such a plan would have been useless if that one migrant hadn't gotten away from them.

As for Los Zetas losing strength, that's also possible. They had gotten strong enough that the Sinaloa Federation, La Familia, and the Gulf cartel felt the need to (temporarily, of course) join forces in order to put Los Zetas out of business. Considering how much bad blood there is between the Federation and the CDG, that alliance speaks volumes to the capabilities Los Zetas had achieved. So does this mean that the alliance was doing its job, and the massacre was an act of desperation? I'm not so sure. Remember, Los Zetas share a special bond and have a whole truckload of special forces training. This is what makes them some of the best and most efficient killers in Mexico. Heck, they were recruiting the Guatemalan Kaibiles to help them. Why all of a sudden would they want to forcibly recruit a group of 72 non-Mexican migrants into their organization (as slaves or otherwise) who aren't trained or vetted? They probably have a line of former cops and soldiers a mile long wanting to work for them and make the money they do. They'd also be better off just subcontracting to a Mexican gang.

We know that the methods of killing have become increasingly brutal over the years because, in a way, they have to. Just like TV or video games, we become insensitive to certain things over time, so DTOs have to get creative or just do something over-the-top to get a rival's--or the government's--attention. This could be a "simple" case of an opportunity for some Zetas to extort a large group of unfortunate immigrants from other countries. Maybe they felt less sympathy for them because they weren't their countrymen. Who knows? When the migrants couldn't pay up, the killers might have seen that as a chance to teach them a lesson, earn some street cred, and send a message at the same time.

These are just a few of the possibilities that have crossed my mind, and the truth is often far stranger than anything I can come up with on my own. Considering that investigators of the killings are now starting to disappear, we may never get to the bottom of the story.

UPDATE: Police blotter entry claimed to be proof of Laredo ranch takeover

Yesterday, I had an interesting email exchange with CNN's Nick Valencia regarding the Examiner.com story of a supposed takeover of a ranch in Laredo, Texas by Los Zetas. He had been exchanging emails with the story's author, Kimberly Dvorak, who was still sticking to her story, despite heaps of evidence to the contrary. Well, the "evidence" she provided him that the takeover actually occurred is making the Internet rounds today - a screenshot (and possibly a digital snapshot) of a police blotter entry. Here it is:

 

Nick asked for my thoughts on it, and here's what I told him:

Analysis: "There are several tiny details wrong with the entry. First of all (and you probably already know this), you have the City of Laredo Police Department and Webb County Sheriff - two separate law enforcement entities with different jurisdictions. Why would an official blotter entry refer to LSO (Laredo Sheriff's Office) when there's no such thing? LPD is only referred to as such at the end of the report. I have a hard time believing a deputy with WCSO or officer with LPD would make such an error repeatedly. Also, why would Border Patrol respond to such an incident that would clearly fall under the jurisdiction of local law enforcement? If anything, the FBI would respond with a hostage rescue team, not Border Patrol. From a law enforcement perspective, this report makes no sense to me. Finally, Los Zetas telling the ranch owner that no one is allowed on-site without permission? Really? Like someone would come knocking in the middle of an armed takeover of a ranch on US soil and be allowed to visit by one of the most dangerous cartels in Mexico."

This story still hasn't made it into the mainstream media. The blotter entry story made it into the North Star National (never heard of it) and some blogs, but nothing like CNN, FOXNews, or MSNBC. And now that I've had more time to think about it, I'm finding more and more holes in the blotter story. Why haven't subsequent entries been provided, which would ostensibly outline how things turned out? It looks like a photo of a computer screen, which may have been taken with a cell phone camera. Why didn't the leaking party at whatever law enforcement agency take a photo of more entries to back up his claims?  Why isn't there any evidence of arrests, or injured hostages/narcos/cops? That blotter entry also contained a LOT of sensitive operational details. Normally, blotter entries are short and to the point. It's not good operational security to include how many SWAT team members are involved, where they're setting up for surveillance and/or building breach, etc. 

Still, waaaaay too many things that don't make sense. Still not convinced, Kimberly!

"Mexican troops kill top Sinaloa cartel figure."

Here is an excerpt from Ken Ellingwood and Richard Marosi's article in the L.A. Times:

"In a significant blow against the powerful Sinaloa drug cartel, Mexican troops on Thursday killed one of the group's top figures during an arrest raid in western Mexico... Ignacio Coronel Villarreal   is described as one of the three most important bosses in the cartel, which is based in Sinaloa state and run by the country's most-wanted drug suspect, Joaquin "Chapo" Guzman. Coronel, known as "Nacho" and in his mid-50s, was highly sought by U.S. and Mexican authorities. Authorities said Coronel headed the group's operations in the western states of Colima, Nayarit and Jalisco, where troops tracked him down Thursday. U.S. officials have described him as a pioneer in making large quantities of methamphetamine to be smuggled into the United States. Army officials said Coronel was slain after opening fire on troops closing in on him in an upscale, tree-lined suburb of Guadalajara, long considered a haven for drug bosses. Coronel kept two residences that he used as safe houses and maintained a low profile, the army said... Though for years a close associate of Guzman, Coronel was considered by U.S. and Mexican authorities a potent trafficker in his own right, with direct access to cocaine supplies in Colombia." Link to Full Article

Analysis: This is a very significant piece of news coming out of Mexico, equivalent to the killing of Arturo Beltrán Leyva earlier this year, in my opinion. Just three things I want to comment on here.

First, the eternal question of organizational succession. Coronel was truly a top dog in the Sinaloa Federation, third in line after Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán Loera and Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada Garcia. I don't know how much of a hands-on trafficker he was, or if he did a lot of delegating. His immediate subordinate and meth-maker extraordinaire is Salvador Antonio Damián López, so perhaps he'll get promoted to fill in for El Nacho. Guzmán also has Juan Jose "El Azúl" Esparragoza Moreno working for him at a level roughly equivalent to Coronel's, so he may see an increased role in the organization. Esparragoza, by the way, is said to have had a role in the murder of DEA agent Kiki Camarena in 1985.

Second, several drug war observers and Calderón critics have accused his administration of being soft on the Federation, and even being in direct and knowing cahoots with Guzmán and his folks. I'm curious what those critics have to say now, as killing Coronel isn't exactly the best way for Calderón or the Mexican army to cozy up to Guzmán. I've been on the fence about those allegations because in this war, anything is truly possible. However, I've tried to remain optimistic that the heavier casualties and arrests of members of other DTOs have merely been a strategic decision. Hopefully Coronel's demise has no ulterior motives behind it, other than a sincere desire to go after all the DTOs and their kingpins equally.

Third, and mostly as an aside, the US Consulate in Ciudad Juárez sent out a warden message announcing they would be closed today for a "security review." I don't know for sure if the closure is related at all to Coronel's death. One of my colleagues tells me that is part of it, as is a 15-day window for the next car bombing in Juárez. Coronel was killed a decent ways away from Juárez, and technically he lived and did most of his work in western Mexico. However, the Federation has been battling with the VCFO in Juárez for some time, so it would follow that the State Department would have some concerns over a possible flare-up in violence there.

So, once again, the only constant in Mexico these days is change. We'll see over the next few days how the Federation responds organizationally to Coronel's death, and what form retribution against the Mexican army and government in general will take.

"Los Zetas drug cartel seizes 2 U.S. ranches in Texas."

Here is an excerpt from Kimberly Dvorak's article on Examiner.com:

"In what could be deemed an act of war against the sovereign borders of the United States, Mexican drug cartels have seized control of at least two American ranches inside the U.S. territory near Laredo, Texas. Two sources inside the Laredo Police Department confirmed the incident is unfolding and they would continue to coordinate with U.S. Border Patrol today. “We consider this an act of war,” said one police officer on the ground near the scene. There is a news blackout of this incident at this time and the sources inside Laredo PD spoke on the condition of anonymity. Word broke late last night that Laredo police have requested help from the federal government regarding the incursion by the Los Zetas. It appears that the ranch owners have escaped without incident but their ranches remain in the hands of the blood thirsty cartels. Laredo Border Patrol is conducting aerial surveillance over the ranches to determine the best way to regain control of the U.S. ranches, according to the Laredo Police department. The approximate location of the U.S. ranches are10 miles northwest of I-35 off Mines Road and Minerales Annex Road. Just off 1472 (Mines road) near Santa Isabel Creek north of the city of Laredo, Texas." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Normally I wouldn't dignify a story like this with a post, but it's making enough rounds across the Internet that I feel compelled to dispel the rumors and set Ms. Dvorak straight. First of all, the story is completely untrue. I've confirmed that through the Webb County Sheriff and US Northern Command. A US government spokesperson has also dismissed the story as false. It's unfortunate that Ms. Dvorak insists on sticking to her story, which is based on anonymous and circular information.

Since I used to be the South America Policy Examiner for Examiner.com (I've since stopped because it pays pennies for the work you have to do to make any worthwhile money), I know that your earnings are based on the number of hits your article page gets, and how long the reader stays on the page. I guarantee you Ms. Dvorak is seeing a spike in hits today, and I'm not crazy about the fact I'm contributing to that - and the further spread of her bad article - by linking to it above. But fair is fair, and I won't make an exception just because the story is "hogwash," to quote the Sheriff in Laredo.

Let's go beyond the fact the story has been discounted by several local and national law enforcement and government authorities for a minute. Why would Los Zetas try to seize two ranches in Laredo? They already have homes and properties and cars in various cities in the southwest border states, and with all the money they have to burn, they can just buy any ranch they want. Why expose themselves to US law enforcement with such reckless behavior? The story says the ranch owners escaped without incident; that in and of itself is odd. It throws the possibility of the seizure as DTO retribution against the owners out the window. It also implies that the ranch owners either had some kind of warning about the intrusion or were let go by the intruders. Neither of those theories fit with Los Zetas modus operandi; they're extremely stealthy, and generally don't let witnesses just wander off.

Either way, the important takeaway is that Los Zetas have NOT taken over two ranches in Laredo, and always remember to ask critical questions when you read a story like this that seems too sensational to be true. One of these days it might be, but chances are there's less to it.

"Sinaloa drug cartel leaving Arizona?"

Thanks to Bill Richardson for sending me a link to this video clip! It's a news story from a local station in Arizona detailing the arrest of a dozen members of the Sinaloa Federation in Oklahoma. They were moving about 10 pounds of meth per day, and reportedly told authorities they were instructed by their DTO bosses to move north due to Arizona's new immigration law:

 

Analysis: Mr. Richardson - a journalist and former counterdrug officer - offers great insight in the video, which I briefly wanted to share. First, it is possible that some DTO members are leaving Arizona because they're concerned about increasing police scrutiny. However, if anyone thinks they're leaving for good, they're sorely mistaken. DTOs may not operate with as much impunity in the US as they do in Mexico, but they certainly won't be put off by a mere immigration law.

Please take a look at the video, and take to heart his comments; he knows what he's talking about, and I'm in complete agreement.