Mexico's Drug War

"Al Qaeda eyes bio attack from Mexico."

Here is an excerpt from Sara Carter's article in The Washington Times:

"U.S. counterterrorism officials have authenticated a video by an al Qaeda recruiter threatening to smuggle a biological weapon into the United States via tunnels under the Mexico border, the latest sign of the terrorist group's determination to stage another mass-casualty attack on the U.S. homeland. The video aired earlier this year as a recruitment tool makes clear that al Qaeda is looking to exploit weaknesses in U.S. border security and also is willing to ally itself with white militia groups or other anti-government entities interested in carrying out an attack inside the United States, according to counterterrorism officials interviewed by The Washington Times. The officials, who spoke only on the condition they not be named because of the sensitive nature of their work, stressed that there is no credible information that al Qaeda has acquired the capabilities to carry out a mass biological attack although its members have clearly sought the expertise. The video first aired by the Arabic news network Al Jazeera in February and later posted to several Web sites shows Kuwaiti dissident Abdullah al-Nafisi telling a room full of supporters in Bahrain that al Qaeda is casing the U.S. border with Mexico to assess how to send terrorists and weapons into the U.S." Link to Full Article

Analysis: It's no secret that I'm not a fan of Sara Carter's writing in The Times, as I thoroughly ripped apart an article she wrote on Hizballah entering the US from Mexico. This article continues her streak of sensationalism and blowing things out of proportion without providing any context or perspective. 

First, let's take a look at the "recruiter" in the video she refers to, Abdullah al-Nafisi. He's a well-known Kuwaiti college professor, and apparently enjoys ranting against the US and promoting al-Qa'ida. His "speeches" are often shown in pro-AQ media, but there's no evidence he's a bona fide AQ member, let alone an "official" recruiter; he's most likely just a blowhard professor. Second, let's examine the weaknesses in the plan to move anything that isn't DTO-owned product into the US through a border tunnel. Moving terrorists, bombs, or anything of the sort is VERY bad for DTO business. Also, the DTOs that build and own these tunnels are VERY territorial and protective of these tunnels. NOTHING goes into them or comes out of them without their knowledge and approval. For al-Qa'ida or any other terrorist group to move operatives or biological weapons or nuclear material using a tunnel, they'd be hard-pressed to do so without alerting the DTO owners and incurring some serious penalties. Finally, although our northern border is not nearly as scrutinized in the media as our southwest border, it's infinitely easier to bring anything into the US from the north. If I were a terrorist with two brain cells to run together, I wouldn't risk detection in Mexico to cross an increasingly fortified border when I can just take a boat ride down a river and sail right up to a major metropolitan area in the northeast US.

Bottom line, this "exclusive" (which was actually reported through other outlets in February) is yet another attempt by the author to make headlines. Unfortunately, there are a lot of managers and decision-makers in the homeland security business that read this stuff and get bent out of shape right away. If you happen to be someone who bears the brunt of those "I need to know what this means now!" demands, just point those folks in the direction of this blog *wink*.

IN FOCUS: Border Tunnels

Over the last few years, Mexican DTOs have been feeling pressure on their smuggling operations from both Mexican and US law enforcement. Human smugglers have also been feeling the same pressure, as detection and interdiction efforts have improved and viable land routes for both drugs and people have been squeezed. Both types of smugglers have had to get creative, and that's where the border tunnel comes into play.

According to press reports that cite US immigration officials, at least 75 border tunnels have been discovered along the US-Mexico border since the 1990s. Although I'm restricted from saying what the actual number is, I know it's higher than 75. Some of these tunnels are small and crudely dug, but others are absolute marvels of construction, taking into account what they're used for and the clandestine circumstances under which they're built. A few of these tunnels have wooden support beams throughout, concrete flooring, extensive lighting, and ventilation systems. Some even have rails for moving carts filled with narcotics headed north into the US - or bundles of money heading south into Mexico. 

One of the more sophisticated border tunnels (pictured right) was discovered in January 2006 in a fruit distribution center in Otay Mesa, California. The tunnel went 85 feet underground and emerged a half mile away in Tijuana, where it was used by the Arellano Felix Organization to smuggle drugs into the US.

Several tunnel detection methods are currently in use by border officials, but they all have their drawbacks. These methods include ground-penetrating radar and sonic equipment, but ICE officials will tell you that investigation and good observation methods tend to trump tunnel detection technology.

In 2003, ICE formed the San Diego Tunnel Task force - the only one of its kind, although Nogales has a more informal group with the same mission. It's a multiagency effort, including US Border Patrol, DEA, US Dept of Justice, and US Navy personnel. Typically, most tunnels are discovered when somebody tips off authorities to signs of suspicious work: digging sounds, activity at odd hours, or numerous trucks. Tunnels rarely last more than a couple of months before they are unearthed, border officials said. Once they're discovered, they're filled with concrete - often at great expense. The Otay Mesa tunnel cost $700,000 to fill. Despite the shirt-lived nature of these tunnels, drug smugglers keep digging and human smugglers keep moving people in this often dangerous manner.