Zetas Leader Miguel "Z-40" Treviño Morales Captured in Nuevo Laredo

Or so we believe. This news is breaking all over as I type, so this post is subject to updating as more information comes in. A report from the San Antonio Express-News has some more detail than the other early reports, despite the fact that the Dallas Morning News was the first US source I saw cited. From what I'm able to gather from multiple (and sometimes contradictory) US and Mexican sources, Treviño was captured during a shootout with Mexican marines in the border city of Nuevo Laredo. He's wanted in the US on five murder charges and is reportedly behind at least 2,000 killings. Treviño is also "accused of smuggling tons of cocaine and marijuana into the U.S. and laundering tens of millions of dollars here through a number of businesses, including horse racing and real estate." Z-40 has been in charge of Los Zetas since his predecessor, Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano was killed in October 2012.

Analysis: So now the question becomes, who will be in charge? And what effect will Treviño's death have on Los Zetas as an organization, as well as their war with the Sinaloa Federation? We were all actually asking these same questions when El Lazca was killed, although the situation was slightly different. Lazcano had handed off most of the TCO's operational aspects to Treviño before he was killed, so he was in a figurehead position for the most part. There were some adjustments at the upper levels because the two men have (had) different leadership styles, but I wasn't made aware of any significant shifts in trafficking patterns or hubs of violence.

In this case, Treviño had a very hands-on operational role; not only as Zetas leader, but head of one of the most lucrative border plazas in Nuevo Laredo, his home base. It's important to remember that Los Zetas aren't organized in a hierarchichal fashion, but work more like a franchise operation. Each cell operates more or less independently, and cell/plaza leaders can determine what criminal activities they'll engage in based on local conditions. There isn't as much direction coming from the top as there is in TCOs like the Sinaloa Federation or the Arellano Félix Organization, so as long as Z-40 is replaced quickly with someone the plaza bosses have confidence in, his capture may only be a speed bump.

Right now I'm looking at his brother and right hand man, Oscár Omar "Z-42" Treviño Morales, who also goes by Alejandro. He's a nasty piece of work in his own right, heavily involved in drug trafficking, kidnapping, and murder, and wanted for US$5 million - the same reward offered for brother Miguel. Back in 2012, Mexican newspaper La Jornada identified him as the #3 man in Los Zetas, and said he was responsible for negotiating the Zetas' supply of Colombian cocaine and precursor chemicals for making methamphetamine. I think Omar/Alejandro would be perfectly capable of taking the Zetas helm, but there may be other plaza bosses who feel the same about themselves. This is where the cell structure is to the disadvantage of the organization as a whole; loyalties in Los Zetas are much more fickle than they are in family-run or "old school" TCOs, although loyalty to a kingpin is never really guaranteed. It's always possible that the bloodbath to fill Z-40's position could begin any day now, although I'm not convinced that's going to be the definitive route for Los Zetas.

One man who is most certainly doing a happy dance is Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán, head of the Federation. I'm not sure how well he'll be able to exploit Z-40's capture, since El Lazca's death didn't deal him a huge benefit. However, because Treviño has a much bigger and active role in Los Zetas than El Lazca did when he was killed, there's a better chance El Chapo could see this as the perfect time to strike. Guzmán and Los Zetas have been fighting over Nuevo Laredo since 2004, and the city could now be perceived as ripe for the picking. This is why it's crucial for Omar/Alejandro or someone else to step up and step in as quickly and seamlessly as possible with a strong show of leadership and strength if violence during this transition is to be minimized. Only the body count in the days and weeks ahead will be a real indicator of how smoothly (or not) the Zetas' recovery is going.

Comments

[Alexi]

Excellent!

[Rich Roth]

Good review, have you read the Stratfor comments yet? I think you are more on point as always. Good post.

[maun]

Hmm...Maybe a very huge surge of violence is possible to determine who of the top zetas will be in charge , maybe Nuevo Laredo will become a new Juarez , the CDG may put incursion in their territories

[Chuckie]

Your analysis is stale and general. You've been writing the same generalized, name-dropping blog posts masquerading as analysis for several years, built off all the same ideas and assumptions. Your posts are unnuanced, don't look at larger issues, and you report what people can read literally anywhere else. You are the New York Post of drug war reporters. Congrats on making your nut on the book.