"Mexican Navy says captures top drug boss 'El Coss.'"

Here is an excerpt from this Reuters article:

"The Mexican Navy said on Wednesday it had captured one of Mexico's most wanted drug bosses, the head of the Gulf Cartel, in what would mark a major victory in President Felipe
Calderon's crackdown on organized crime. The Navy said it would give more details about the arrest of the man it believed to be Jorge Costilla, alias 'El Coss,' when it parades him in front of the media early on Thursday. A government security official said Costilla, 41, was detained in Tampico in northeastern Mexico, where the cartel is active, without putting up a fight. The U.S. State Department has a reward of up to $5 million for his capture. No other details were immediately available. The arrest of the suspected capo comes barely a week after the Mexican Navy captured senior Gulf Cartel member Mario Cardenas, alias 'Fatso,' also in the state of Tamaulipas where Costilla was caught." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Just as an FYI, the identity of the man the Mexican navy arrested last night was confirmed as that of Costilla Sánchez, so we shouldn't be seeing another case of mistaken drug lord identity.

This arrest is a really big deal. It comes hot on the heels of another major CDG arrest, that of Mario Cárdenas Guillen, brother of former CDG heads Osiel and Antonio (aka "Tony Tormenta"), on Sept. 5. The Mexican government has essentially eliminated the leadership of both the Metros and Rojos factions of the CDG, effectively leaving the organization's jugular exposed to Los Zetas. There's very little chance that northern Tamaulipas can escape a dramatic rise in violence right now.

The question is, who will be responsible for that uptick. The first scenario that comes to mind is a huge push by Los Zetas to take over what's left of the CDG and finally take control of the elusive Matamoros plaza. That city was the birthplace of the CDG and had been their stronghold ever since. By taking Matamoros, not only do Los Zetas take control of the drug profits from that plaza, but score an enormous psychological victory over any CDG holdouts.

However, this situation also presents a huge opportunity to the Sinaloa Federation. Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán has been fighting Los Zetas on many fronts for years. He may be able to prop up what's left of the CDG in Tamaulipas and take the fight to Los Zetas instead. The Federation and the CDG used to be mortal enemies, but they allied a few years ago, forming "The New Federation" along with the old La Familia, to do joint battle against Los Zetas. If it meant survivial for the CDG, I have no doubt that whatever lieutenants get promoted to take the place of Mario and El Coss would be interested in forming a pact again.

The arrest is still very fresh and few details have emerged; Costilla Sánchez was only just recently paraded before the cameras yet in the traditional Mexican perp walk. We'll see how things play out over the next week or two, but regardless of which path the remnants of the CDG take, it's likely to get uglier in northeast Mexico.

Comments

[ComputerJA]

Great analysis, Sylvia.

I think that the arrest of Costilla will force the Sinaloa Cartel to have greater presence in Tamaulipas. They cannot allow Los Zetas to erase the Gulf Cartel off the map, since they are the only access El Chapo has in northeastern Mexico. It could really go both sides: if Los Zetas hit a powerful blow before El Chapo can do anything, the CDG will be done. But if El Chapo makes a smart moves to muscle-up the CDG, everything will be fine.

Remember that Los Zetas are living an infighting too, so making an incursion to the turfs of the CDG will probably not be that easy (and especially if El Chapo goes all in to help the Gulf Cartel).

[Gerardo Carrillo]

Let me present a Mexican "man on the street" point of view on the arrests of the Gulf cartel hierarchy. I've spoken with several Mexican citizens, middle class to lower middle class, both here and in Mexico, about these arrests and the almost universal take is that "ya empezaron los arreglos del PRI". In other words, PRI President-elect Enrique Pena Nieto is already exerting influence in national affairs and the traditional PRI arrangements with drug cartels has already begun. As they see it, these arrests of the Gulf cartel leadership point to an accommodation by the government with Los Zetas, and the dismantlement of the lesser Gulf cartel in order to end the war between both criminal organizations that have brought so much grief and violence to northeastern Mexico. It is a return to a time when the government dictated terms to the drug cartels.

Maybe this view is true, maybe not, but it is entirely believable to these men in light of of the behavior of the Mexican state in its collusion with drug cartels under past PRI presidential administrations.

[Bill]

Gerardo,

If this narrative turns out to be correct I wonder if it will in fact increase the violence as the other groups fight for survival? And is it possible that violence will shift more and more from cartel versus cartel to cartel versus the state?

Ms. Longmire,

I saw your analysis suggesting arresting the cartel King Pins will do little to reduce the violence, which I suspect is true, but you didn't offer an alternative strategy? I suspect this focus on group leadership is based on our historic misunderstanding of insurgencies, crime, and terrorism. Occassionally some groups are personality based, not many, yet we (globally) tend to default to focusing on the leadership.