"U.S. Accuses Iranians of Plotting to Kill Saudi Envoy."

Here is an excerpt from J. David Goodman's article in The New York Times:

"Federal authorities foiled a plot by men linked to the Iranian government to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States and to bomb the embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington, Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said in a news conference on Tuesday. Mr. Holder said the plot began with a meeting in Mexico in May, “the first of a series that would result in an international conspiracy by elements of the Iranian government” to pay $1.5 million to murder the ambassador on United States soil. The men accused of plotting the attacks were Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, according to court documents filed in federal court in Manhattan. The Justice Department said the men were originally from Iran. He said the men were connected to the secretive Quds Force, a division of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps that has carried out operations in other countries... According to the complaint, other conspirators based in Iran were aware of and approved the plan, which involved hiring men connected to a Mexican drug cartel to carry out the killing... The complaint says that the men hired by the two accused plotters were in fact confidential sources of the Drug Enforcement Agency. The men were later asked by the accused plotters whether they were knowledgeable in bomb-making, the complaint said, adding that Mr. Arbabsiar 'was interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia.'" Link to Full Article

To read the full criminal complaint issued by the US Department of Justice, CLICK HERE.

Analysis: Much is being made at this moment about the connection between Iran and the unnamed Mexican TCO referred to in the complain, and rightfully so. But there is also much need for context and perspective in this story.

First, I highly recommend that if you're interested in this story, you read the full complaint. It gets bogged down in legalese in several places, but there's important factual information that people (i.e. the media) need to be aware of before jumping to dangerous conclusions.

I'd like to point out that no TCO is specifically named in the complaint. The government describes the TCO that the Iranians believe they're working with as follows:

"Drug Cartel #1 is a large, sophisticated, and violent drug-trafficking cartel. It is well known throughout North America, and its principal places of operation are Mexico and the United States. According to published reports, Drug Cartel #1 has access to military-grade weaponry and explosives, and has engaged in numerous acts of violence, including assassinations and murders."

Anyone who follows the drug war with any sort of regularity can make the assumption that we're talking about Los Zetas here. But just know for the record that Drug Cartel #1 is never named in the official complaint.

Moving on to the most important part of the story...the informant. Many media reports about this story are making the erroneous connection that the Iranians successfully hired Los Zetas, who agreed to murder the Saudi ambassador. What actually happened was that the Iranians thought they had hired someone who works for Drug Cartel #1 (we're reasonably assuming it was a Zeta), and who was actually a paid informant for the DEA. Here's how the complaint describes the informant:

"CS-1 is a paid confidential source. Previously, CS-1 was charged in connection with a narcotics offense by authorities of a certain US state. In exchange for CS-1's cooperation in various narcotics investigations, the State charges were dismissed..."

There's some more info, but that's the basic picture. We can assume he was arrested in Texas, since the meetings between the Iranians and the informant occurred in Reynosa, right across the border from McAllen. But again, this is an assumption. There's also no indication of what Mexican TCO he may have been connected with "in real life." For all we know, he may have been a local gang member of Mexican nationality.

Here's the most important aspect of this story: We have NO IDEA if Los Zetas, or the Gulf cartel, or whichever TCO the Iranians thought they were working with would actually have agreed to help them. Yes, it's always a possibility. But think about the ramifications of a TCO getting caught in the Washington DC area involved in this kind of plot. And for what, $1.5 million? That's chump change for a major TCO - one lost load of cocaine or meth. To risk the kind of US government and law enforcement scrutiny - essentially the Hammer of God - being brought down on them for participating in such a plot would hurt their business, and very existence, in a way that Mexican government action never has. Why would they take such a risk for (relative) pennies?

The problem is, there's no way to just call "El Lazca" or "El Coss" and ask, um, would you guys actually do this if they offered? I've already written several times in several places that I thought it would be unlikely for TCOs to willingly and knowingly smuggle terrorist operatives into the US across the southwest border because the risk to their business of getting caught was too high for whatever money they'd get for it. But this kind of plot is a completely different animal - engaging in the assassination of a foreign dignitary for a country that's a state sponsor of terrorism in the US capital...it just seems too risky.

But this should not take away from the fact that the Iranians - and God knows who else - was interested in using a TCO for this purpose. Who knows how many times TCOs have been approached by foreign governments or terrorist groups for this purpose? And if this has happened, what transpired during the negotiations? Have they all been turned down outright, or is there some negotiation like this ongoing for future murderous action on US soil? 

Maybe Los Zetas are crazy enough to do it, but for $1.5 million dollars? Add a couple of zeros to that figure, and maybe it's a better possibility.

Comments

[Cache Walker]

I had been waiting all day for your analysis of this story. You didn't let me down. Thanks for the work you put into these.

[Beltonwall]

The Iranians aren't a signatory party to NAFTA. So where do they get the idea that THEY can outsource cheap labor to Mexicans? Pathetic.

Somebody needs to explain to the Iranians how this kind of thing works--either they need to find an American who will do this and pay him a fair wage, or better yet, they should do it themselves and then they've got no one to blame if it's not done right.

But going to Mexico and immediately finding two US gov't agents to do the job? How unprofessional. I bet that Arbabsiar and Shakuri didn't even bother to learn Spanish. I bet they was real happy to find two guys who spoke good English. I bet they didn't even ask to see these guys cartel ID cards. I bet they thought that $1.5m was a ****load of money for these two Mexicans and there was no way they could resist. I bet they charged the Iranian gov't $75m for the job. I bet Arbabisar and Shakuri thought they were very clever for outsourcing this dirty deed. They DID sent the US gov't $100k and paid the bills of those who arrested them. As a US taxpayer, I say thank you to the Iranian government for the $100k.

[Beltonwall]

To be fair, it is kind of hard to outsource this kind of work. A great example of an outsourced coup d'etat is described in detail in "The Seychelles Affair" by Mike Hoare. It is fast paced reading and very informative.

I strongly encourage either party in an outsourced hit or coup to read this book. Think of all the trouble you could save yourself if you spend $15 and read a book.

[anonymous_superhero]

Why didn't the Iranians just use its Hezbollah presence in US and Mexico to pull this off? Even if the Zeta's were used it would be pretty obvious who the originating party is. Sounds like this was insitgated by a lone wolf/cell who wanted the informant to believe this was coming from Iran perhaps to get some credibility. Some pieces of this just don't fit.

[Davidpaulkrug]

I just don't buy this report by the US. It's full of holes. The story doesn't add up. It's like the US wanted a stone to go after Iran, and Los Zetas. Like hey who is public enemy #1 and #2. Let's make up a bogus fairy tale to attack both of them so we can have two more wars on two continents.

The story is bogus. Period. It's a fairy tale. No way Iran does this deal. And no way Los Zetas does this deal.

Even the Gulf Cartel's leadership doesn't need money this bad.

[Davidpaulkrug]

Although what's humorous is. One certain cartel would benefit from all this chaos.... If war happened in Iran and Northern Mexico Poppy prices would soar out of control both in Iran an Mexico.

Just saying.

[Beltonwall]

"Why didn't the Iranians just use its Hezbollah presence in US and Mexico to pull this off?"

uhh. ... maybe because they don't have a Hezbollah presence in the US and Mexico? Perhaps this event is the best proof that this presence doesn't exist?

And if you read the transcript, that 'lone wolf/cell' pissed away $100k which isn't exactly chump change for a 'lone wolf' . . . . .

[Beltonwall]

"No way Iran does this deal. And no way Los Zetas does this deal."

Uhh. . .If you notice, NO ONE did this deal.

"Even the Gulf Cartel's leadership doesn't need money this bad."

That was the whole point of Sylvia's article.

So what to say that the Iranians government isn't filled with incompetent fools too? In fact, it sounds to me like they are filled with some pretty stupid people who are way out of their league on this side of the world.

AND if we wanted to start another war we would have let the Saudi Ambassador be assassinated. What better way to do that? Remember THAT'S how WWI got started.

[anonymous_superhero]

""Why didn't the Iranians just use its Hezbollah presence in US and Mexico to pull this off?"

uhh. ... maybe because they don't have a Hezbollah presence in the US and Mexico? Perhaps this event is the best proof that this presence doesn't exist?"

http://www.hudson-ny.org/2269/hezbollah-mexico
"the 440 megabytes AZDPS documents displayed a bulletin mentioning the presence of Hezbollah militants operating in smuggling corridors on the U.S. border with Mexico.

The document, from the Tucson Police Department, is dated September 20, 2010.
"

http://www.10news.com/news/27780427/detail.html
"We are looking at 15 or 20 years that Hezbollah has been setting up shop in Mexico," the agent told 10News.

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-07-14/politics/30060540_1_islamic-militants-hezbollah-cartels
http://info.publicintelligence.net/AZ-Hezbollah.pdf
"
The memo, leaked by the hacker group LulzSec as part of its Arizona Department of Public Safety hack, warns that Hezbollah has established operations — and a large arms stockpile — in Mexico.

As evidence, it points to the 2010 Tijuana arrest of Hezbollah militant Jameel Nasr, who was allegedly tasked with establishing a Hezbollah network in Mexico and South America."

This is just the first few results from google. I am sure you can find further evidence. It is almost like you are trying to run a mis-information campaign for the Obama admin.

[Beltonwall]

@anon_superhero

Thank you for the links--it invites intelligent conversation instead of screaming loud opinions. I also like how you question authority. If more Americans had done this when our government told us that there were WMD in Iraq then we never would have invaded. But, we can't turn back the clock.

So let's analyze these news reports and see if they seem logical. Here are some observations:

1) "We are looking at 15 or 20 years that Hezbollah has been setting up shop in Mexico," the agent told 10News." --Hezbollah was formed after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. . . . . and this man expects us to believe that Hezbollah is already exporting the revolution before meeting their prime objective? I find this agent's statement to be far-fetched. I also note that he provided no facts to back up this statement. The best proof of the factual fallacy of the agents' statement if one of your links:

2) "As evidence, it points to the 2010 Tijuana arrest of Hezbollah militant Jameel Nasr, who was allegedly tasked with establishing a Hezbollah network in Mexico and South America."

So, if this is true, then it means that as of the date of his arrest, July 2010 there was no Hezbollah network in Mexico--not 15 to 20 years of influence. The first link also states that he was under surveillance before the arrest in Mexico. And in addition, it is reasonable to assume that the Mexicans' intelligence agencies are functional.

Nasr was tasked with establishing a network and he failed. Was Nasr a high-ranking individual? How long will Hezbollah wait before attempting again? Who will they send? What tactics will he employ to set up his network? What results will the new guy have? How long will he need to set up a network? Although the articles do a good job at instilling fear, they do not address any of these points.

3) The first link mentions over 200,000 Syrian and Lebanese immigrants in Mexico. But, they neglect to mention relevant details; how long have the immigrants lived in Mexico? A) If they immigrated pre-1982 why should anyone assume they would share the goals of Hezbollah? B) Syria and Lebanon are a patchwork of religions-Christian (Marionite Catholic, Syrian Orthodox, Syrian Catholic) Muslim (Shia, Sunni) and Druze. (Source: CIA World Factbook) and the link makes no mention of the breakdown of the religious beliefs of these 200,000 immigrants. Perhaps mostly Christians emigrated to Mexico? Perhaps most Sunni Muslims?

4) Hezbollah's main beef is with Israel, not the USA.

Based on these facts, I find it hard to believe that Hezbollah has set up a network in Mexico. Therefore, when I read that some Iranian idiot tries to hire a cartel bloke to bomb a Saudi it seems very plausible. This fact alone backs up the theory that Hezbollah does not have an established network in Mexico.