"US officials confirm arrest of Juárez cartel leader connected to US Consulate deaths."

Here is an excerpt from Daniel Borunda, Alex Hinojosa and Marty Schladen's article in the El Paso Times:

"Mexican authorities captured the reputed leader of La Linea, a vicious group of thugs that carried out murders and terrorized Juárez for a drug cartel. José Antonio Acosta Hernández, also known as 'El Diego,' one of the highest-ranking bosses of the Juárez drug cartel, was reportedly arrested Friday after a shootout with authorities in a Chihuahua City neighborhood. Acosta was indicted this year in the killings of three people connected to the U.S. Consulate in Juárez... His arrest, according to one expert, may signal the end of the Juárez drug cartel and a downturn in the violence that has gripped Juárez and the state of Chihuahua. Acosta, who was reportedly flown to Mexico City after his capture, is believed to run operations for La Linea in Chihuahua City and Juárez and was arguably the most-wanted man in the state of Chihuahua... In recent weeks, narco-graffiti threatening the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and U.S. Consulate employees appeared on public walls in Juárez and Chihuahua City. The messages telling the "gringos of the DEA" to quit meddling were signed 'Diego'... Many of the public threats from La Linea made frequent references to 'El Diego'... The capture of Acosta may be a new beginning for Juárez residents and a decrease in violence, said University of Texas at El Paso political science professor Tony Payan." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Chalk up another victory for the Calderón administration, as this is a nice one. There's no doubt that Acosta's arrest will have a detrimental impact on La Linea, and perhaps on the VCFO (Juárez cartel) as a whole. The big question is, of course, how much?

Acosta has been indicted in the US for alleged involvement in the attack on the three US Consulate employees, which makes him eligible for extradition. The only thing any narco fears is extradition. Dr Payan mentioned in the article something about Acosta providing good, useful intelligence about his organization and perhaps rivals. That's the key here, both to either preventing Acosta's extradition, reducing his sentence if he is sent to the US for trial (and assuming a conviction, of course), and bringing down the remnants of the VCFO. But will he talk?

No one can really say. Edgar "La Barbie" Valdez Villareal did, and so did Osiel Cárdenas Guillen. If the VCFO really is crumbling, Acosta may believe there's not much left to save - except his own rear end. La Linea has been a force to be reckoned with in Chihuahua for many years, and the VCFO is not a TCO to go quietly into the night - it's been fighting for its life against the Federation for quite some time now, and still maintains a presence in Juárez. However, there is a chance that Acosta could drive some pretty big nails into the VCFO's coffin; we'll see how that develops over the next few weeks and months.

But there's still the other question - how will the assumed demise of La Linea, and perhaps later on the VCFO - affect levels of violence in Juárez? Many people believe that if the VCFO were to concede or be destroyed, the Federation would win control of the Juárez plaza and peace would ensue. Unfortunately, that probably wouldn't be the case.

In past years, the violence in Ciudad Juárez has been a result of the turf battle between the VCFO and the Federation. But something happened in the last couple of years to change to rules - throw them out the window actually...the local drug trade exploded. There are something like 500 colonias, or neighborhoods, in Juárez, and each one has its own gang defending its turf - and dealing drugs. These gangs have joined in the bloodshed, and it's gotten to the point that no one in Juárez really knows who is killing whom. The Federation and the VCFO don't have their top people mixed up in that mess; they hire out lower level thugs to do the grunt work for them in that chaos. The cops are afraid of going in and asking too many questions, let alone thoroughly investigating any murders that occur in Juárez, so it's too simplistic to say that once the VCFO is out, everything will get better. Juárez still has a few hundred gangs to deal with.

That being said, if the Federation ends up being top dog in Juárez as a result of Acosta's arrest (whether that's in a few weeks or months), they have the power to rein in all the disparate factions in the city and establish some order. Whether or not they want to is a good question. With all the killing and chaos, less authority is scrutinizing the movement of drugs across the border into El Paso. However, all those gang members already in the drug business and possibly looking for work...this could result in the largest narco recruiting drive the drug war has ever seen.

At this early point in the game, post-Acosta arrest, it's too soon to tell what impact him being out of the game will have. Of course, it's always interesting to speculate, and imagine positive outcomes. As always, more to come...

Comments

[P]

A BIG win for Calderon, the DEA, and all of Mexico.
What a fearsome individual Hernandez must be. For all the horrors he has committed - he belongs in the depths of hell. If he talks, his testimony should completely unravel La Linea.

Looks like a big win also for El Chappo. Wonder if Sinaloa played a part in helping the authorities to find Hernandez?? Seems as if omething hidden is going on - that is allowing Mexican & US agents to track down these guys.

P.

[Sylvia Longmire]

@P - I don't like to start conspiracy theories in my posts, but I have no problem doing so on Twitter or my comments :). Funny how only a couple of weeks after narcomantas are hung and graffiti is sprayed threatening DEA agents (signed by "El Diego"), Acosta is taken into custody. Coincidence? I think the DEA said, "No way he's getting away with this s**t" and dropped the hammer. Just my $.02, in a professional capacity, of course :).

[Jose Angel de Monterrey]

Sylvia,

Calderon's strategy is working. He is dismantling the big cartels, decapitating them, causing internal divisions and eventually their weakening.

This is a necessary step if we want the local governments to be able to join in the fight against the cartels. People like "el diego" were more powerful than the local authorities. But the balance of power is changing. Now in Monterrey for example, local governments like Guadalupe, Garcia o San Pedro can now collaborate with federal forces in the fight against the cartels. It is incredible to see the municipal forces fighting the narcos, they used to collaborate with them for a long time. But most policemen were fired and there is a new generation of policemen, with military background and more tactical knowledge and capacity fighting the criminals.

The cartels are now losing power, they had infiltrated local governments for decades but now the army is dismantling those crime structures all over the country. The cartels are running out of territories to control and their leaders are falling one by one.

[Beltonwall]

@ Jose,

I'm surprised by your assessment--not because I doubt the accuracy, but because most Mexicans I know are pretty cynical about law enforcement.

If most Mexicans share your attitude, then the politicians and police MUST (and will!) serve the people and not their own interests.

[Jose Angel de Monterrey]

Beltonwall,

For generations, Mexicans were cynical about their police forces, but then again, for generations, none of those police forces fought the narcos.

Now many policemen are getting killed in the fight against the criminals, our soldiers are getting killed too, and they are liberating hundreds of people kidnapped by criminals, every single day our federal and state police and army are fighting criminals and many getting wounded and some of them are also getting killed.

They are earning the respect that now many of us are beginning to feel about them, they are paying a high price to defend our country. They are indeed true heroes of our time.

Mexico has always been a changing country, we had revolutions and wars and suffered social changes all of the time.

This is indeed a great time of changes for Mexico, we finally have some democracy, our supreme courts are independent, our central bank is now independent as well, our society is modeling its institutions after those of the american society in many ways. There are multiple reforms in our congress being negotiated as we speak, big reforms to try to change our country into another one we dream of.

And the police forces is something our society is trying to change rapidly. Increasing their salaries three-fold and more, getting them better training and equipment and more certifications, benefits, requirements, filters, etc.

So I think Mexico is responding to the new challenges in a more institutional way, if the police is to become an institution, we must also learn to begin to respect them as well.

[Beltonwall]

Jose,

I didn't understand Mexican's cynicism vis a vis their police force until I read "Drug Lord" by Terrance Poppa. It was very eye-opening.

I do see that police and soldiers are dying all over Mexico in the fight with the narcos. I'm sure there is a lot of 'dead wood' that needs to be cleared out in police forces, but still, I think, these men and women know the danger of their job and they still put on a uniform every day.

How widespread is your viewpoint in Mexico? By this I mean, do many other people share your point of view?

[Jose Angel de Monterrey]

Beltonwall,

Most mexicans see the federal police, army and marines in a positive light, but do not trust local and state police forces, normally very corrupted and badly paid, though this is changing, as I said in an earlier comment.

I think the great majority of Mexicans share my point of view, everywhere I find people speaking in those terms, poor and middle class the same.

Some people in the left have tried to make an issue of the war on drugs, they are behind many of these so called "social movements" that populate the country.

There will be elections next year, a lot of people are getting ready to start trying to rock the boat, they are not trying to scapegoat our president and federal forces for the evils affecting Mexico, just like they did last time, but just like the last time, they will lose in the end, because the great majority of Mexicans want democracy and strong institutions and do not believe in messianic politicians and chosen ones anymore. I think most mexicans want progress and continuity and not regression.
Soon, socialists and populist continent-wide forces will try to influence Mexico again, they are coming from venezuela, ecuador, cuba already trying to spread the seed of their collectivist and populist ideals. It is going to get hot again.

[Beltonwall]

Jose,

Very interesting to read your comments.

I wish Mexico the best in this difficult time. I read a commentary once about Columbia and their drug war. It said that the best thing to come of the drug war in Columbia in the 1990's was stronger institutions; law enforcement at all levels, judiciary (courts, lawyers, judges,laws) and political parties.

If most Mexicans share your thoughts on those fighting the narcos then this will result in a virtuous cycle. Better recruits, better training, better results, etc. But it's a really slow process, of course.

Have you read the book by Mark Bowden "Killing Pablo"? I can highly recommend it.

[Jose Angel de Monterrey]

Beltonwall,

Thank you so much. I will take a look at Mark Bowden.

A lot of people compare what happened in Colombia vs what is happening in Mexico. I agree that both countries had very weak institutions, as most latinamerican countries, and the drug cartels took advantage of that weakness.

I have to add that Colombia does not share a long border with the US, that in Mexico the drug cartels do not represent a big part of the economy either, Mexico is an industrialized country and it is one of the largest economies in the planet with many and diverse industries. So while I think Mexico has far more resources to fight the cartels we also need to learn from the lessons of Colombia.

[outdoor playground equipment]

I agree that both countries had very weak institutions, as most Americanization countries, and the drug cartels took advantage of that weakness...I think the great majority of Mexicans share my point of view, everywhere I find people speaking in those terms, poor and middle class the same.