Attack on Monterrey casino may up the stakes for Calderon's drug war.

Twitter was on fire last night with various reports of an attack on the Casino Royale in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, that killed over 50 people and injured many more. Here's a recent report in The Wall Street Journal: 

"In what Mexican officials have called an "act of terror," a half dozen gunmen burst into a casino in Mexico's industrial capital of Monterrey Thursday, sprayed the place with gasoline, and started a fire in the bingo section, killing at least 53 people. Speaking to Monterrey's leading newspaper El Norte, Nuevo León Gov. Rodrigo Medina said that at least 53 people had been killed in the attack... Officials said they expected the death toll to continue to climb in what appeared to be an attack linked to warring drug cartels, although there was no immediate information linking the massacre to drug traffickers. Up to 80 people were in the casino when it was attacked.'Six hooded gunmen came in, shouting obscenities and firing their guns,' said a person at the scene who asked not to be named. 'They drenched the place with gasoline. People were running as the place went up in flames. Those who stayed behind burned to death.'... 'An act of terrorism has been committed," said Alejandro Poiré, the federal government's spokesman for security affairs. "This act of terror will not remain unpunished.' The mention of 'terror' has been a controversial one in Mexico's drug wars, where officials have argued hard against terminology suggesting an insurgency." Link to Full Article

However, this wasn't the only casino attack this week. The Caliente casino in Saltillo, owned by controversial former Tijuana mayor Jorge Hank Rhon, was attacked on Wednesday. A grenade attack near a Reynosa, Tamaulipas casino also occurred on Wednesday, and the Sun City casino in Saltillo) was attacked on August 15th. These other attacks involved mostly gunment (with the exception of the Reynosa incident), and few lives were lost - especially in comparison to the Casino Royale attack.

Analysis: I'm very concerned about the references Calderon and Poire are making to the Casino Royal attack as an "act of terror." I've always written/said that TCOs often behave like terrorists, and engage in terrorist-type activity. However, this doesn't necessarily make them terrorists, and to label them as such would open up a huge diplomatic and political Pandora's Box. Many of my readers and Twitter followers have already commented that the box was opened when he came into office.

The problem with that is that we don't fully understand yet the motivation behind the Casino Royal attack. But because of the string of other casino attacks (and other factors), we can start doing some intelligent speculation. Casinos are frequently owned by TCOs, or allies of TCOs who do extensive money laundering for them. Monterrey, Saltillo, and Reynosa are currently battlegrounds for the war between Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel. These attacks could be rival hits. Or, the owners of the casinos may not be following up on their end of a bargain with one of the two TCOs, and now they're paying the price. I'm more inclined to go with the first explanation; it would be too much of a coincidence that four casino owners would all be screwing their bosses over at the same time. Don't forget; according to the news reports, we don't even know if TCOs were involved, although it's a reasonable assumption.

Taking a look specifically at the Casino Royale attack, spreading gasoline around and starting a fire is a poor way to carry out a true terrorist attack. There are multiple factors here that led to the death of so many people. First, it sounds like it was a small place; only 80 people were in it at the time of the attack, and there are definitely more than 80 people in any Vegas casino in the middle of a Thursday. Second, something was wrong with the emergency exits; either there weren't enough of them, they were poorly lit/indicated, or they weren't opening. Third, many people fled to the bathrooms to escape the attackers, and they subsequently got trapped - and killed - in there by the smoke and flames.

Initial reports claimed this was a robbery attempt, and the attackers were yelling at people to get out of the casino after they started the fire. This is looking less and less like a robbery and more like a simple attempt to burn the place down. Honestly, I don't believe the attackers' intent was to kill everyone inside the casino. This is incredibly important when major political figures are throwing around sound bytes like "act of terror." Were the people in the casino terrorized? Absolutely. Are the Mexican people throughout the country terrorized by the news of what happened yesterday in Monterrey? I have no doubt. But people living in certain parts of Los Angeles and Detroit and Washington, DC (and many other US cities) are terrorized every day by gang violence that rips their children away in drive-by shootings. Does this make gang members terrorists? No.

The bottom line is, unless those men wanted to and planned to kill innocent people in the casino in order to send a message to Calderon's government, the attack wasn't a true act of terrorism.

Yesterday's attack on the Casino Royale was one of the biggest tragedies we've seen in Mexico's drug war. Whenever innocent people are caught in the crossfire of TCO violence, it has a huge impact on the morale of the Mexican people, and the viability of Calderon's strategy. How will the Mexican people choose to view this attack? As a true "act of terror" and an indiscriminate killing? As a severely botched attempt by a TCO to send a message to a rival, or uncooperative casino owner? Or yet another example of a failed drug war strategy?

Sadly, it's unlikely this will be the last tragedy of its kind in Mexico. The question is, how will Calderon's administration play future incidents in the press? By calling the Casino Royale attack an "act of terror," he and Poire may be trying to open an avenue for increased US or international assistance that would help save the face of Mexican sovereignty. He may also be pursuing a political agenda that includes pushing for passage of legislation allowing the government expanded powers to monitor TCO activity.

I'm sure more information will roll in over the next few days and weeks regarding who was responsible for the attack, and why it was committed. However, we're going to see the political fall out from this for many months - perhaps years - to come.

Comments

[Toni Loftin]

One report I read, an off-duty casino worker commented that the casino could hold up to 1000 people. Had the attackers wanted to claim a higher body count (which terrorists usually try to do), the attack would likely have taken place at a time when the casino was packed. Instead, it took place during what would be a slow time of day. Sadly, it appears that the majority of victims are women. On a personal note, one of my aunts in Monterrey like to frequent the casinos as an outing with her friends and comadres. I don't think she'll be going anymore.

[Eleazar Osuna (Mexican)]

Interesting article.

I would like to highlight some of your lines. We Mexicans do suffer acts of terror very frequently. I live in Monterrey and witnessed yesterday's event by twitter, comments and calls being a few blocks away. We all do understand they are not against good people, but we DO indeed suffer acts of terror.

I felt it when going home, when I passed a few meters nearby. I knew there was a lot of people dying. I felt it when arriving home after my wife asks me how would we be confident to hangout.

Thinking it better, yes.. it is against us.. Its about Mexico citizens, US and us all. They are against our health, peace, our security. It wasn't just the people dead.. it is about we all consuming their products. They are against us.

Worth reflecting.. uh?

Regards,

[Bill]

@ Toni Loftin - Sincerely hope your relatives and friends were not involved.
@ Sylvia - I do think Calderon and those otherswho are labelling this act as "terrorism" are doing so intentionally and with the full knowledge of what this appellation carries with it. In my (not so fully informed) opinion this is the beginning of the Mexican federal authorities call to action of the world community to get involved in putting an end to this spreading scourge.

[Cache Walker]

Your analysis is so informative. Thanks for providing it so I can understand more of what is going on in terms of motivations for these horrible attacks. I always strive to understand the why of what is happening and as usual you provided a lot of clarity. Keep up the great work.

[Beltonwall]

I expect this event to galvanize public opinion in Mexico against the TCOs.

These are clearly innocent victims who were scared to death and ran away from the gunmen to their death instead of past them to freedom. I can't really fault their logic.

I would be very interested to hear Jose Angel's comments on this event.

[Joe]

You have the analysis correct on the terrorism element: attack during the day, not at night; some people permitted to leave during the attack; most that died fled (logically) to the second floor or to areas away from the gunmen, where they died because the emergency exits did not function. Also, I like the way you tie this attack to others that are taking place, noting that it is probably an attack on the money-laundering operations of rivals. I would like to add a couple of observations. First, I think if you go back over the last couple of years, you will see that burning rival establishments is common. I saw it happen a couple of times in Cuernavaca in 2010. So, if a bar or nightclub is a hang-out for a gang, it becomes a target for rivals to burn. Second, Mexico has a huge problem with corruption of fire inspectors, and owners that purposely lock (with chains and padlocks) the fire exits of their clubs as a security measure. There was a famous case in Mexico City awhile back. They prefer to not allow the doors to be used, than to prepare for the safety of their patrons. Reports suggest that is what happened here. Just a couple other avenues of thought to tie in with the non-terrorist money-laundering angle you have laid out.

[Homero]

Do you agree to the point people are making that the sloppiness of this attack is evidence of the weakness of the particular TCO which perpetrated this?

[Sylvia Longmire]

@Homero - It's hard to say if it was sloppy because we don't fully understand what the attackers' intentions were. Plus, no one has verified that a TCO was actually involved, let alone which one.

[P]

Really a sad incident. My prayers for all the families who are affected in Mexico.

The photo you posted says it all - how could anyone escape that horrible inferno unless they ran through one of the exits really quickly? If the casino operator really did padlock some of the exit doors ... then I hope he/she is charged with serious offenses.

This crime has the "look and feel" of the Zeta's attached to it. Enormous reckless regard for human life seems to be a trademark of theirs. Perhaps their main goal was to burn the building, but they could have let the patrons escape if they wanted to.

What will Calderon do ... that he isn't already doing? Can this incident turn Mexico into more of a "police state". It's not like the security forces aren't already hunting the drug cartel bosses relentlessly.

P.

[Slow POKEY]

The New York Times wrote U.S. Widens Role in Mexican Fight
By MARK MAZZETTI and GINGER THOMPSON
August 25th http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/world/americas/26drugs.html?_r=2&hp [a story I think should never have been printed] Maybe Calderon labeled it terrorism to pave the way for future involvement of U.S. assets, or to explain the current involvement. I am presuming they have a reason for the "act of terror." label.