I spent a few hours last night following the minute-by-minute updates on Twitter, as well as speaking to my own sources in the media and on the ground in Mexico. Here's what I know.
The Monitor out of McAllen was the first US news outlet to report that Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano Lazcano, head of Los Zetas, had been killed in a shootout between Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel in Matamoros. The reporter claimed to have a solid source on the ground, 
and based all the reporting on what this anonymous source was saying. The Brownsville Herald was the second US news source to start reporting El Lazca's death. Their reporter is also standing by her source and her story, although the BH has changed their headline and ledes to reflect "reportedly killed," rather than just "killed."
My own sources were being told that there was a meeting going on between Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel in Matamoros, the meeting went horribly bad, and the shooting started. That story would explain what El Lazca was doing there in the first place. Unfortunately, that information was provided by the same source The Monitor was using. I've been told by other journalists who work in the RGV that The Monitor and reporter passing on all this info are notorious for bad information, and for "stirring the pot" to get attention.
Analysis: We need to take a look at a couple of common-sense things when examining the veracity of this story. First, neither the media nor the Mexican government have confirmed that El Lazca was even in Matamoros, let alone in the midst of the gun battle. Second, capos are rarely - if ever - on the front lines of these affairs, so why would El Lazca be the first? Third, media reports have shifted on whether this was a shootout between Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel, or between Los Zetas and the military, or if all three groups were shooting at each other. If Los Zetas have moved into the stronghold of the Gulf cartel - Matamoros - then this is an extremely significant event.
Alejandro Poiré said last night that El Lazca wasn't among the dead, but he hasn't exactly been forthcoming with more details, and neither has SEDENA.
My suggestion for sussing out more truth to the story is to keep an eye on Miguel "Z-40" Treviño Morales, Los Zetas' no. 2. The last I read, he was the plaza boss in Nuevo Laredo. If El Lazca is really dead, Los Zetas will need to replace him in a big hurry, and Z-40 is the obvious choice. If law enforcement or media notice any changes in his people's movements or operations, then there might be something to the rumors.
Bottom line, until I see a body - either displayed by a Mexican coroner, or the Gulf cartel which is rumored to have it - I'm not convinced.
Would his death make a difference? The zeta's seem pretty networked based as opposed to the semi-heirarchy's of the other cartels. Do they have a built in resiliancy from thing like this?
Posted by: anonymous_hero | June 20, 2011 at 12:51 PM
Sylvia
In my opinion you are not stressing the origin of the problem: our (Canadian and USA) demand for illegal drugs produced south of the Rio Grande, in Mexico and all the way south to Colombia and Bolivia. I live in Ottawa, Canada, and I am the son of a Canadian father and a Mexican mother. I have lived approximately half of my live in one country and half in the other, I consider myself proficient in both cultures and can give an accurate account. Lets not full ourselves, WE are the cause of whichever misfortune comes this way.
Posted by: George Lawrence | June 21, 2011 at 08:45 PM
The real issue is NAFTA. Get rid of NAFTA, get rid of the cartels.
Posted by: Sipo Markey | July 28, 2011 at 11:05 AM