Dana Kennedy from AOL News interviewed me yesterday over the course of almost two hours for the following Q&A. I have to say, I'm quite pleased with it, and I think she did a good job of asking good questions, considering the drug war isn't her beat. Here's a quick excerpt:
"Lost in the rhetoric about illegal immigration are new reports that Mexican drug cartels have moved into the United States, gaining a major foothold here that may be the start of a permanent expansion onto this side of the border. They're even growing marijuana in our national parks, one expert says. Mexico's cartel families and their associates have moved into cities in the southwestern U.S. as part of their ongoing drug selling and distribution operations, according to an alert from the U.S. Justice Department's Drug Intelligence Center, first reported April 11 by Mexican media... The cartel-related violence is spreading to the U.S., law enforcement officials say. And it all starts at the border. AOL News spoke with Sylvia Longmire, 36, former special agent with U.S. Air Force intelligence and author of the upcoming book "Cartel: The Coming Invasion of Mexico's Drug Wars," about what's at stake for the U.S."
To read the full Q&A, please CLICK HERE!
good interview indeed, both the questions and the answers.
it displays an understanding that an "organizational race" is underway. the bad guys are building transborder networks faster and better than are the good guys in both countries.
analysts and strategists up here keep emphasizing the importance of building / developing / reforming "institutions" — and then they throw in a nod to inter-governmental and inter-agency coordination, acknowledging a need for networking. institutions are important, but "networks" are becoming more so. in the end, success in this fight will depend more on the network-building than the institution-building, though the two are related.
Posted by: david ronfeldt | April 22, 2011 at 03:45 PM
why don't you just write an article on how the US keeps buying drugs? US stops buying drugs = problem solved. I can tell what side you are on. Gets your facts straight.
Posted by: Tanya | April 22, 2011 at 04:49 PM
@Tanya - What side is it exactly that I'm on? I've never denied that the US demand for drugs is the fundamental fuel for the fire in Mexico. I actually talk about that extensively in my book, but that's not out yet. I wholeheartedly agree with you that if American consumers stopped buying drugs, the problem would be solved. But do you believe that's practical? Our government has been trying to stem drug demand for decades without success, and its policies have been misguided failures. What's *your* solution? Also, what facts did I not get straight? I'm pretty sure I was factually accurate in everything I said.
Posted by: Sylvia Longmire | April 22, 2011 at 05:03 PM
Good article. Drug cartel members are illegal immigrants, you made a good distinction there, they are taking advantage of the politics.
The weapons issue is tricky. Guns do get traced back to the US from violent crimes in Mexico, but that's because the US is one of the few nations in the world that have such a robust weapons tracking system. Weapons are coming from all over the place, not just the US, into mexico. Its only the US weapons that actually can be traced. The rest are untrackable. The problem is Mexico and the inability to control their border. But its good politics for Mexico to blame others for their shortcomings.
Posted by: Eric L | April 22, 2011 at 09:23 PM
WELL ... this could be a real positive. Looks like our national parks have finally found a way to turn a profit. Maybe they won't have to close after all ... when the rest of the US Gov't shuts down :-) :-) :-)
P.
Posted by: P | April 22, 2011 at 10:53 PM
Sylvia:
I have high respect for your analysis and presentations. However, there's one statement where I don't think you have your facts straight. Are some of the Mexican guns coming from the United States? Absolutely. Is it in the high percentages claimed by ATF? Absolutely not. Tell me I'm wrong....
From an ATF employee, "One of ATF's strategies to get more of your [taxpayer] money is to say "look at all these traces" - we need more money, more people, more managers. The data is also used to implement agendas. Look at this evil firearm." (Check CleanUpATF.org)
You also seem to want to blame NRA for disputing ATF trafficking claims, but I've seen little from NRA on this subject. The disputing is coming from many other groups, including the DOJ OIG. ATF has even disputed it's own 'misleading' percentages. Am I wrong? A Federal Agency shouldn't have to do that.
It appears that Mexico is more angry about ATF allowing 2,500+ guns to be sold to traffickers (Operation Gunwalker), than they are about the NRA. There's talk in the Mexican legislature and press about bringing Bill Newell up on charges. Tell me I'm wrong.....
I'm sure my words won't change your mind, so how about some facts from your side of the issue? I've got an open mind....
Posted by: Ike | April 23, 2011 at 01:50 AM
@Ike - The facts ARE the problem. NO ONE knows what the real facts are. That's the message I'm constantly trying to get across. The ATF and federal government publish their seizure-and-trace statistics. The NRA and other lobby groups dispute them, but usually with no statistics of their own to back up their claims. The Mexican government presents its own statistics and claims about how many US-origin guns are entering Mexico every day. The problem is, because of the nature of weapons trafficking and cartel activity, no one will ever know the real number of US guns being used by the cartels. I get upset because everyone likes to stomp their feet and say they're the ones who are right without enough evidence to back it up. However, I think it's incredibly naïve and goes against all common sense to say that a good portion of those guns are NOT coming from the US. We just don't know the exact number.
Posted by: Sylvia Longmire | April 23, 2011 at 08:03 AM
I see NRA and "lobby groups" questioning seizure-and-trace statistics, but I see the following respected organizations actively disputing the statistics:
In November 2010, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) Office of the Inspector General (OIG) issued a final report which strongly disputes ATF seized gun statistics.
Between September and November 2010, ATF disputed their own seized gun statistics which were cited to Congress, and admitted they were misleading.
On February 10, 2011, Stratfor Global Intelligence published an analysis which concluded "almost 90 percent of the guns seized in Mexico in 2008 were not traced back to the United States."
A little common sense is welcome in discussions of this issue, but seems to be in short supply.
We've seen reports that among the seized Mexican guns are significant numbers of American sourced firearms which were legitimately sold to Mexican government, military, police, and private security companies, along with other legitimate export sales smuggled into Mexico from other countries. But where's the trace analysis of these? Missing.
I'd also like to reinforce the post by Eric L. above. The only guns that can be traced, are American sourced. Therefore, any statement saying that 90% (or 80% or 95%) of the guns 'traced' are American sourced, is absolute nonsense. Think about it.....
I think it's time for rational discourse on the issue and stop the inane 'blame game'.
Posted by: Ike | April 23, 2011 at 09:23 AM
Miss Longmire, you are "seemingly" unaware of the facts that ONLY the guns Mexico turned over for trace which created that "vaunted" lie, that 85% of all guns in Mexico come from US FFL's. Further, you are "seemingly" incapable of addressing the question posed to you by Ike in regards to "Project Gunwalker" by dismissing it and stating that there are no facts- well here are three links you should start with.
1. A journalist's guide to 'Project Gunwalker'-Part One
http://www.examiner.com/gun-rights-in-national/a-journalist-s-guide-to-project-gunwalker
http://preview.tinyurl.com/4ohk8vx
2. A Journalist's Guide to 'Project Gunwalker'-Part Two
http://www.examiner.com/gun-rights-in-national/a-journalist-s-guide-to-project-gunwalker-part-two
http://preview.tinyurl.com/3k9vdm8
3. A Journalist's Guide to 'Project Gunwalker'-Part Three
http://www.examiner.com/gun-rights-in-national/a-journalist-s-guide-to-project-gunwalker-part-three
http://preview.tinyurl.com/3gf5wq9
Yes, I realize that you are not a journalist, and in fact MAY actually be be paid by some government agency for contracted work, but these links are a fine start for you to learn the fact that ATF allowed guns to be walked across to pad their numbers as reported by CBS when interviewing an ATF Agent, showed ATF's undercover video, reporting about BP Agent Brian Terry- and then Jaime Avila.
Would you please tell us again how you dislike the 2nd Amendment being used for political reasons?
Posted by: DC | April 23, 2011 at 09:44 AM
@ All
"However, I think it's incredibly naïve and goes against all common sense to say that a good portion of those guns are NOT coming from the US. We just don't know the exact number."
Sylvia has it correct here as usual, but the childish chatter will not stop! With all the guns they could possibly ever want right next door, right across OUR border; where else are the cartels going to go for armament? Limitless supply and low transportation costs right at the border, why go anywhere else?
Posted by: Bill | April 23, 2011 at 10:57 AM