UPDATE: 20 kidnap victims in Acapulco may have had ties to La Familia

On Nov. 1, Stratfor published a security memo indicating the 20 male tourists kidnapped in Acapulco a couple of weeks ago had ties to La Familia Michoacana. Here's a brief excerpt from the report:

"A group of 20 tourists from Morelia, Michoacan state, reportedly kidnapped Oct. 1 in the Costa Azul neighborhood of Acapulco, Guerrero state, was sent on orders from La Familia Michoacana (LFM), Reforma reported Oct. 26, citing Mexican federal security sources. According to the report, LFM sent 22 men to Acapulco (two of the men eluded capture) to “heat up” the region as part of its struggle with its rivals from the Cartel de la Sierra, headed by Edgar “La Barbie” Valdez Villarreal. Some of their objectives reportedly included assassinating the mayors of Acapulco and nearby San Marco and attacking area schools. Mexican authorities learned that Valdez Villareal had ordered the kidnapping of the 20 during the interrogation of Isidro “El Quirri” Juarez Solis, allegedly the plaza boss for the Acapulco region for the Cartel de la Sierra, whom they detained several days after the 20 were kidnapped." 

Analysis: The folks at Stratfor don't believe the men are tourists, and for the most part are going with the information they received from the federal police. I can't say that I'm too surprised by the information, but sending 22 guys with no criminal record to assassinate all those high-level people? Even Stratfor claims those goals are very ambitious by Mexican standards, and I believe they're even more ambitious for a smaller - albeit increasingly powerful - DTO like La Familia. Plus, the Reforma source Strafor is using is someone within the federal police. Maybe I'm getting too cynical for my own good, but there's the possibility that for PR purposes, the feds want the public to believe those men were "bad guys" and not innocents being kidnapped and mass-murdered in a major tourist town. Yes, they could have been dirty too, like everyone else, but....I don't know.

Now you have to throw into the mix the fact that on Nov. 3, 18 bodies were found in a mass grave near Acapulco. There hasn't been any confirmation yet that the bodies are 18 of the 20 men who were kidnapped. However, also on Nov. 3, a video was posted on the Internet of two men being interrogated about the kidnapping. An Associated Press story reported they killed "the Michoacanos" in an act of revenge against La Familia, and were ordered to bury those bodies in Tres Palos outside Acapulco. The same story also reports Guerrero state investigators say they corroborated the men worked as mechanics and had no criminal records. Investigators also say they could find no evidence linking the men to any gang and have speculated the group may have been targeted by mistake.

So which is it? La Familia operatives sent to assassinate several high-level and extremely difficult targets who were targeted for kidnapping and death by a rival cartel? Or tourists who were victims of mistaken identity? Both stories are plausible, and while I have several tons of respect for the analysts at Stratfor, I don't know that the federal police and subsequent Reforma story completely passes the smell test. Even the YouTube video of the interrogation could be DTO propaganda taking advantage of the situation. If those men were targeted accidentally, no one will ever really know because dead bodies in a mass grave aren't too chatty. We'll see what else comes out of the investigation over the next few weeks.

Comments

[P]

Well you know what they say ... the first casualty of war is the TRUTH. And when it comes to Mexico and the narco-war, the truth seems to vanish very quickly.

If the 20 men were really tied to a cartel, then why would their friends immediately report the kidnapping to the police? That doesn't seem smart. It seems like the disappearance would be reported back to the cartel bosses - who would see that it is avenged. Also, doesn't it make sense that if the 20 men went to Acapulco on a mission to cause trouble - that they would have a safe house and a plan to work undercover? Surely La Familia would know about surveillance happening in Acapulco. If these men were cartel operatives, they were apparently very untrained and expendable.

On the other hand - if the 20 men were tourists, then where are their bodies?? It's been quite a while now. Why would the cartels go to a lot of trouble to conceal the bodies of dead people if they were innocent?

Everything you hear from Mexico always seems to be a curve-ball.

[Bill]

Thanks for following up on this.

[P]

Hey ... quick update from the news today.

It looks like police have recovered the bodies of 18 of the men that went missing from the group. The bodies were found buried in Tres Palos, just south of Acapulco. A tragic loss for the families of all these young men.

The link is here:
www.elpasotimes.com/ci_16515367?source=most_viewed

Apparently the people who killed the group believed that the 20 visitors were representing La Familia. But it's unclear if this was true, and in what capacity the 20 were really acting - esp. given the fact that they had jobs as mechanics and they had no criminal backgrounds.

The killers were apparently a local cartel in Acapulco.

It seems reasonable to expect revenge from La Familia for this killing. Which means more bodies can be expected in Acapulco in the future.

[Madmexican38]

Mecanics my ass, do you know how little mecanics earn in Mexico? Check to see how much money these people were paid, there is no way they could afford to "vacation" in Acapulco. Not on a mecanics pay grade in Mexico, and certainly not in the present economy in Mexico.
MM38

[P]

MM38 ... you've got a good point. The families said the guys were mechanics, and apparently the police checked their backgrounds. But that doesn't explain what they were doing in Acapulco, or how they could afford to go there.

Here's something to think about. Suppose La Familia did tell these 20 guys to go to Acapulco and cause trouble. Doesn't it make sense that they'd be armed? I would think they'd be armed to the teeth. How else could they get the job done? So if that's true, how come they just got kidnapped at gunpoint when they arrived? Why wasn't there a street shootout, instead of a kidnapping? There's still a lot that doesn't add up to this story.

[Andre]

I remember somewhere when this story first broke that the men at the center of the story conducted an annual trip to Acapulco. This point seems to have fallen by the wayside. I don't know if it was confirmed or maybe the family members trying to deflect any DTO association.

[Panchito]

Yeah i do believed the they kill them