What really happened to the Hartleys on Falcon Lake?

Analysis: I know I normally start off my posts with excerpts from news stories, but there are too many small pieces of this story in separate articles. I'll try my best to encapsulate everything here. 

You probably already know the basic story, but in case you don't... David and Tiffany Hartley went for a ride on their jet skis last month on Falcon Lake, which straddles the Texas-Mexico border. There are some beautiful church ruins (#12 on the map) that are partially submerged on the Mexican side that they were trying to check out. While they were near that area, Tiffany says they were approached by men in three boats who started shooting. They began to flee towards the US side of the lake, but then David got shot and fell off his jet ski. Tiffany tried to pull him up onto her ski, but she says they started shooting at her. So, she had to leave him and beat feet to avoid getting shot herself.

Tiffany has provided a few different versions of the story, which has caused authorities on both sides of the border to be a little suspicious. David's body hasn't been found yet, and it will probably never be found. I've also read accounts that say David was shot from the front, which doesn't jive with him getting shot while heading away from the "pirates" towards the US side of the lake. The same account said the Hartleys had just returned from a luxury cruise and bought a house filled with new furniture shortly after attending a seminar for people having financial trouble.

The latest analysis by Stratfor says the shooting was a case of mistaken identity. David apparently had worked in Reynosa, and their car had Tamaulipas plates. This led Los Zetas to believe the Hartleys may be rival DTO Gulf cartel scouts. Stratfor also surmises that the killing was unauthorized, and the accidental work of young amateurs who have probably been killed by their cartel bosses already. The head Mexican investigator has already been killed, with his severed head delivered to Mexican authorities, and the search for David's body has been suspended indefinitely.

So what really happened? I have to tell you, this story doesn't pass the smell test for me. There's too much that doesn't make sense, and Tiffany has told too many different versions of what happened. I keep going back to the motive of the alleged shooters. Robbery (which is what pirates do)? No way...two jet skiers wouldn't exactly have a lot of cash on them, and I haven't read anywhere that the pirates took David's jet ski - or even tried to take Tiffany's. Retribution? I was told by a reporter friend of mine who got an off-the-record tip that the Hartleys may have been involved in some drug activity, but that hasn't been fleshed out enough. For fun? I still think it's too dangerous for cartels to start randomly shooting at innocent Americans just to do it because they know the response will likely be strong and swift. 

I think the Stratfor explanation makes sense. I know that many DTOs are hard up for shooters, so sometimes they have to hire younger punks with itchy trigger fingers. I just didn't expect that Los Zetas - probably the strongest DTO next to the Sinaloa Federation - would be so hard up that they'd have to go that route. Then again, they did just execute 72 South American migrants who refused to work for them. The more-then-slightly cynical explanation that "the wife did it" also makes sense, especially if the Hartley's were hard up for money and she was looking for a life insurance payout. However, we know Los Zetas were definitely involved in the incident - whatever really happened - and it's unlikely Tiffany had entered into some sort of arrangement with them. 

The Mexican authorities do not want to get back in this game for fear of losing more investigators, and they've already spent way more time looking for David than they would have looking for a Mexican citizen. I highly doubt David's body will ever be found - I agree with Stratfor that Los Zetas had to eliminate it - and we'll never have an account of events outside of Tiffany's side of the story. One can only hope that US citizens actually start heeding the advice given in State Department travel warnings and stay away from places like Falcon Lake known to be highly active drug smuggling areas.

Comments

[Chivis]

Great analysis Sylvia...I have said from the beginning something smells fishy & it ain't the bass in Falcon Lake. I wish she would take a poly, that would help.

Chivis

[Fred Hiker]

I’m not certain where all of this speculation about the wife being involved in the murder is coming from, given the reported fact that the sheriff has stated that he has a very credible third party witness who supports the wife’s account of what took place. My feelings are that we will probably never know what exactly took place, and for what reason (s), and frankly I there are many current events more compelling, and interesting that the media should contend with. Bottom line is this: if folks aren’t smart enough to know that there is a war going on down, and to stay the Hell away, don’t come complaining when their heads get chopped off.

[Sylvia Longmire]

@Fred - I think the problem comes in with the fact that the third party witness's account of the event doesn't match on several points with Tiffany's story. But I agree...we'll never know exactly what happened or why.

[Fred Young]

Solution to Stop "ALL" Cross Border Crime

An idea crossed my mind a while back which, if implemented, will virtually stop all cross border criminal activities (both directions). I have discussed this solution with peers, colleagues, friends and family, and all agree it is a solution that, although costly and immense in scope, is viable and sustainable. I contacted many media sources and government officials without much response and thought you might be interested in reading about this solution and perhaps sharing your thoughts about it with me.

This solution won’t be easy to accomplish (things worthwhile rarely are). Difficult, yes; impossible, no. We have the technology and the ability and, it will take time and a great deal of money to accomplish. Even so, there could be dramatic immediate results if done right. The cost will be high, yes, but what price do you put on the thousands of lives that could potentially be spared?

This project, if undertaken, will provide jobs for thousands upon thousands of workers at all levels on both sides of the border for many years to come during the establishing stage and thousands during the operational stage.

Imagine, a solution that not only stops practically all cross border crime, but one that creates thousands of jobs, stops the need for drug cartels to battle for turf killing innocent citizens, elected officials and themselves, while humanely stopping illegal immigration, reducing to a trickle trafficking of all kinds and, if done right, would reduce pollution, provide a reduction of cost for transportation of goods and create a functional and useful barrier instead of an ugly, ineffective fence.

This solution, which I call The "Grand" (taken from the Rio Grande) Canal is a functional canal extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific Ocean along the US/Mexican border following, for a large portion, the Rio Grande.

Think about it.

Fred Young

[rose mestre]

For Fred: any idea how many illegale activity crosses the Rio Grande daily?

For the blog owner: You are talking about "media hype". I would say, living in one of those hotspots, that 90 % of what happens never sees any media, not even narcoblog or borderland beat.

About the Hartleys: it smells to high heaven for all reasons already mentioned and more. That makes a case of mistaken identity very unlikely.

[Salt Lake Sam]

Well, this blog is a new one on me, Hello all.

I receive Stratfor info too so upon finding your blog, I looked for this story.

The part about the Stratfor story though which I find questionable is Stratfor seems to say the Zetas would have gotten onto the perpetrators of the Falcon Lake murder because they would be afraid of what the USA might do. It seems possible but not likely that because the Zetas accidentally killed someone, they would fear the force of the USA in Mexico, what would the USA do? Send a Pershing like expedition out down there?

As has been said, I don't know what to believe with stories we hear and if at times, stories could even be conjured up for some purposes.

[Salt Lake Sam]

Oh and while I agree that the Cartels are not going to be going after Americans willy-nilly, there was widespread press coverage in the US media that allegedly, six Americans died this past week in Cd. Juarez in separate instances and what has really become of the Embassy shooting some time ago?

I was somewhat stunned to see the Fox news report on the University of Texas El Paso students and according to them, all that happened was 2 students drove across the Mexican border with their car with I assume Texas license plates and the car next them started gunning at them. Again, can that be all to this story?? I'd really doubt UTEP students would have been involved in some shady activity in this case. Both students I believe had Hispanic names and a female student who had a class with one of them was interviewed but I'm not positive which station that was on.

To me, again, I would question Stratfor's assertion that the Zetas were scared about this event and so killed or disciplined the 'young guns' or hired sicarios. Though I guess, doing such activity would put more law enforcement on Falcon Lake. I'm still a skeptic.

It stuns me what goes on, I know Mexico has always things like this going on. Late '80s, a Marijuana plantation using slave labor was busted in the state of Chihuahua. A few years later, Mark Kilroy slain along the Southern Rio Grande area, I believe Matamoros area.

And Juarez back in the '80s, even when the phenomenon of the Femicidios was starting to happen by most accounts, I remember there was violence back then. The villains back then in little wars comparatively between Pri and Pan politicians and abuses were thought to be the work of the Judicial State Police.

I think there was some sort of situation where the Judicial Police or someone like that were trying to kill a PAN Mayoral Candidate in Juarez and instead ended up killing some of his family.

So, the foundation of the violence that is occurring in my opinion was set some time ago but of course, much more intense now.

I could hardly believe on a sports note, that the Mexican soccer team played Venezuela in a friendly game in Juarez here in the past month or so.

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Lastly, I will have to read your blog, Ed Vulliamy is coming out with a book "War along the Borderline", I'm sure you have heard about it. It was just reviewed in the NY Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/books/review/Jacoby-t.html

The NY Times story is insightful on questioning some of Vulliamy's pretenses. Now, back in the late '90s, I read Ed Vulliamy's book on Bosnia and there may be similarities in the two situations. Vulliamy, from what I can tell seems to be from the United Kingdom. I believe stories of his can be found on the web about his first visit to Mexico some 12 years or so ago concerning the situation of the women disappearing in Juarez. Sharp writer but as the NY Times article alludes to, probably not the best thing to accept all he says.