"Mexican Candidate for Governor Is Assassinated."

Here is an excerpt from Marc Lacey's article in the New York Times:

"A popular candidate for governor of Tamaulipas State who had made increased security his prime campaign pledge was killed along with at least four others Monday morning when gunmen opened fire on his motorcade as he headed to a campaign event, the authorities said. The   killing of the candidate, Rodolfo Torre Cantú, 46, drove election-related violence in Mexico to a peak unseen since 1994... Mr. Torre’s death followed the killing of a mayoral candidate and that of an activist during a get-out-the-vote effort. Explosives have been thrown at two separate campaign offices. Immediate suspicion in the Torre case fell on drug cartels since Tamaulipas, a northeastern state bordering Texas on the gulf coast, has been the site of fierce fighting in recent months between rival trafficking organizations, the Zetas and their former allies, the Gulf Cartel." Link to Full Article

Analysis: The important take-away from this story is not the person who was actually assassinated, but the fact that DTOs are using this as a tactic to benefit their business operations. Killings in Ciudad Juárez hit a record daily high last week, and some people are asking what's causing the uptick in violence. Upcoming gubernatorial and municipal elections aren't the whole story, but they're a big part of it. Violence in certain parts of Mexico is often cyclical or even seasonal, but DTOs do have a message to send at this particular time of the year.

And that message is two-fold: one for the candidates and one for the people. Organized crime in the US has always held a certain amount of influence over some politicians, but Mexican DTOs take it to an extreme. It's no secret that DTOs want certain people in office because they need an ally - whether forced or voluntary - who will allow their trafficking activities to continue in that state or municipality unfettered. Torre Cantú was probably not willing to play the DTOs' game, and he summarily paid the price for his intransigence. Either that, or because his opponent was and was less likely to win, assassinating Torre Cantú would clear the way for his opponent to be easily voted into office. Such political manipulation goes beyond the traditional definitions of organized crime, and governments on both sides of the border would be wise to regard it as such.

The second message - and perhaps the more dangerous and insidious one - is the message sent to the Mexican people. Rising drug violence, especially when it involves a lot of collateral damage, is highly discouraging to the electoral process. Not only do people stay away from the polls on election day, but they lose all faith in the candidates' ability to protect them or do anything to curb the violence where they live. It erodes the fundamental nature of democracy when a populace loses all faith in the system. Not that Americans are all that fond of our own politicians, and voter turnout during major elections usually hovers around 40-50 percent. But still, we don't fear for our lives when we go to the polls, and I think most Americans still believe their representatives have at least some concern for their constituents.

Keep this in mind when you see news stories of Mexican candidates for office being assassinated over the next week. It's not just a case of drug-related violence as usual. This is a basic erosion of democratic norms by powerful organized crime groups, and the ultimate effect on Mexico's government and society will be dire indeed.

Comments

[P]

I don't see how there can be any honest politicians left in Mexico - at least none that are willing to speak out and reform the system. Cevallos was kidnapped last month. Torres is dead today. The chief of traffic police in Monterrey was kidnapped from his own home at 3 am ... just a couple of days ago.

It just doesn't stop. And the message is simple - absolutely no-one is safe.

Perhaps you should be asking a tougher question. How long before Calderon caves in to this pressure ... if he hasn't already? What's the easiest way for him to stop most of this bad news about Mexico??
ANSWER: make a deal with the devil.

[Sylvia Longmire]

P - That's exactly what the PRI did for so long. I think some people believe that drug trafficking became big in Mexico just a few years ago. Truth is, it became huge in the 1980s, but was always there well before that. The violence wasn't an issue because the president and other government officials in the PRI kingdom let it happen, mostly because they benefitted from it in some way. Taking that route again is always an option, technically, but after everything Mexico has been though, it's hard to say what people would tolerate. I have no doubt that there are many Mexicans who long for a return to times past when there were agreements between cartels and peace on the streets - even if it meant that their government had sold their souls. Yet, in diplomatic circles, after everything Calderon and the US government have done to crack down on the DTOs - and the international attention the situation has garnered - would Mexico be able to get away with going back to the old ways in order to establish some peace?

[Liz]

People benefited for letting cartels do what they want by not getting their lives taken or businesses ruined. Then things seemed to get crazy after Calderon poses a lock down on drugs and two drug cartels started arguing over power.

I can see why certain people are taken out, not just politicians but a recent musician this past weekend was killed because it is a scare tactic, and everything your analysis says seems true.

But corruption has obviously run deep in Mexico's history. How do you stop it peacefully? You can't. Even before the violence broke out, yes it was peaceful but at what cost? You pay the cartels to keep them from robbing your business? You can even pay a police officer to let you go from jail. That was peace?

So again, it won't just be politicians being killed but other people that have some influence like "El Shaka" who was targeted over the weekend.

[Dwight Andersen]

EVERYBODY in Mexico is involved in drugs or knows people who are. They are killing each other over the money. Why not? No one gets caught. No murders are solved because the police and the Army are fighting for the drug money. Calderon too. The violence escalates because State authority is nonexistent. Mexico IS a failed state. What you see in the border region will soon be happening in the capital. No one is safe, all is chaos. No one wants to fix it because then the money would stop. You wanted a democratic Mexico - well - you got it.

S - "everything Calderon has done"? Are you kidding? Do you think he is not in on it? It's sad because 2010 will break all records for violence and it's the anniversary of the Revolution and the Independence.

[Gerardo Carrillo]

This assassination is just the latest incident in the fight against 500 years of weak government, corruption and injustice that Mexico's slowly growing middle class(now about 30% of the population) has led by ending PRI rule 10 years ago and through the election of Calderon. He is the first president in Mexico's history to fight the 500 year disease head-on. It is the attitudes and actions of this middle class that will determine Mexico's future. I don't think they have lost faith in the system just yet.

And what about our efforts as Americans? We have already spent 1 trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan and have only pledged 1.3 billion dollars for the fight against the drug cartels. Only one billion dollars, more or less, will go to Mexico and not all of it is yet funded. That's a cheap sum for a situation affecting our national security right next door.

[P]

Lets go back to US history for a moment. Chicago in the late 1920's and early 1930's. The era of the Prohibition and Al Capone. At that time Capone became so powerful as a crime boss that he practically ran the whole city - he had many city officials and judges on his payrolls. A similar situation exists in Mexico today with the drug cartels. So what did the US Gov't do to overcome this problem in Chicago? They created a special group of law enforcement personnel who were untainted by Capone and completely beyond his reach. That group was call The Untouchables.

That is essentially what Calderon must do now - if he wants to keep any form of credibility. Mexico needs its own version of The Untouchables. A group of law enforcement agents who are entirely beyond the reach of the cartels. True - it would be daunting and extremely dangerous job for the agents involved. Are there any really good men & women left in Mexico who would volunteer for such a mission? Who knows? But if Calderon doesn't do something quickly, his whole political system will fail.

The alternative is what someone here has already suggested - that perhaps Calderon is already in the pocket of the Sinaloa Cartel. If that's true, then the situation is already lost.

[Scott]

I recently read that the zetas are knocking off PRI politicians in states like Tamps. Because the PRI has been in bed with the established cartels for so long. z feels that other DTOs like the CDG have an advantage, at least on the local level, because of their entrenched relationship. In other words, get rid of the PRI and level the playing field.

[MM38]

The Zetas are responsible for this assasination and the reasons are quite simple.
In the last few months zetas have lost hundreds of low ranking foot soldiers, and this event will bring more heat from the Federal Government and more Federal Troops. The Gulf Cartel will go into hiding untill this heat blows over, and this will allow the Zetas to replace all their losses. They are recruiting more and more young, poor, uneducated rural mexicans and promising a place in the DTO and rushing them through suedo-military training. This is essentialy a counter-insurgency movement using tactics learned at the College of The Americas by the head of the Zetas - H. Lazcano Lazcano, who was trained in the United States under the CIA, for Mexican Special Forces Unit (GAFES).
The only involvement that the PRI candidate Dr. Rodolfo Torre had with a DTO, was a unsolicitated nod of approval by the Gulf Cartel in his home state. This sealed his doom at the hands of GC´s desperate rivals.