"AP Exclusive: Sinaloa cartel takes Ciudad Juarez."

Here is an excerpt from Alicia Caldwell and Mark Stevenson's Associated Press article, as published in The Houston Chronicle:

"After a two-year battle that has killed more than 5,000 people, Mexico's most powerful kingpin now controls the coveted trafficking routes through Ciudad Juarez. That conclusion by U.S. intelligence adds to evidence that Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman's Sinaloa cartel is winning Mexico's drug war. The assessment was made based on information from confidential informants with direct ties to Mexican drug gangs and other intelligence, said a U.S. federal agent who sometimes works undercover, insisting on anonymity because of his role in ongoing drug investigations. The agent told The Associated Press those sources have led U.S. authorities to believe that the Sinaloa cartel has edged out the rival Juarez gang for control over trafficking routes through Ciudad Juarez, ground zero in the drug war. Other officials corroborated pieces of the assessment. Andrea Simmons, an FBI spokeswoman in El Paso, confirmed that the majority of drug loads arriving from Juarez now belong to Guzman. And Mexican Federal Police Chief Facundo Rosas told the AP that while authorities are still working to confirm the U.S. assessment, 'These are valid theories.'" Link to Full Article

Analysis: I'm hesitant to get too excited about this news article because this would be the biggest thing to happen in the drug war (in my opinion) since the death of Amado Carrillo Fuentes. I sent emails out to my federal, state, and local law enforcement contacts to see if I could get some boots-on-the-ground confirmation that this is actually happening. I'll post any relevant updates after I get more info.

For now, suffice it to say that complete Sinaloa Federation control over the Juárez plaza is going to bring some peace and quiet to that city that its citizens haven't known for quite some time. Cuidad Juárez is arguably the busiest and the best drug smuggling corridor from Mexico into the US, which is why it's been the epicenter of the murder and mayhem along the border for so many years. If the battles between El Chapo's people and the VCFO's people are really winding down - at least for now, anyway - then that means that some sort of stability can be established there. And for the newbies, stability = peace. 

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it, it looks like the situation is advancing closer to the megacartel theory that writers like Sam Logan and John P. Sullivan have written about. One huge cartel dominating most trafficking activity means less violence and more peace and quiet for most of Mexico. But it then becomes the six- (or is it seven- ?) headed hydra that the Mexican government is REALLY ill-equipped to do away with. That is, of course assuming the Mexican government would even want to do away with such a megacartel that pours millions of narcodollars into a strapped economy.

More to come, folks...

Comments

[buggs]

Another question to ponder is how stable is the Sinaloa cartel itself?

Good job!

[P]

Go back to the times of Felix Gallardo ... the original drug kingpin in Mexico during the 80's. A situation where one bad guy controlled all the power. At that time there was major drug business going on in Mexico, and plenty of political corruption, but Gallardo was smart and kept the violence (mostly) out of sight. Mexico appeared to be a more peaceful country - which actually increased the business of the cartel.

No need to tell you that Chapo Guzman was a main understudy of Gallardo - one of the former lieutenants of that cartel. So it should not be surprising that Guzman really aims to get back to that traditional structure - one man controlling everything.

Keep in mind also ... when Gallardo was arrested, the Mexican authorities also locked up a large number of corrupt police who worked for his organization. But they NEVER touched the high-placed politicians who were on his payroll. So it's a good bet that Chapo continued those connections when he took over Sinaloa.

Guzman is very smart - extremely cunning. He is outwitting his rivals ... he operates in ways that they don't catch. Will he succeed with his plan to become the new kingpin? Who knows. It will not be so easy for Guzman to get rid of the Zeta's - they are probably his main threat because they are also professional and very smart. But it does look like Guzman is winning in Juarez. Bit by bit, the Juarez cartel is getting knocked out of the picture.

[Gerardo Carrillo]

Your right about this news not being much to get excited about. As an unsophisticated observer of the situation in Mexico today I would offer the following thoughts. For whoever controls the Juarez plaza, be it a megacartel or a smaller cartel, any consolidation of power will bring only an illusion of stability. Much of the violence is driven by factors such as the stark poverty caused by extreme economic inequality. The economy of Juarez and other violent border towns such as Tijuana and Reynosa are based to a large degree on very low paying maquiladora jobs and the presence of a poor, uneducated workforce from other parts of the country to fill those jobs. The high number of violent gang members driving the current violence and the high levels of drug use in comparison to other Mexican cities are a reflection of these economic conditions. That is why cartel on cartel violence (and crime in general) is so severe in these cities. Remember the hundreds of young female homicides in Juarez? These women were primarily powerless maquiladora workers whose deaths can be explained as a hideous finale to their exploitation. And most of these deaths occurred when the Juarez cartel was at it's prime and the plaza was stable. An how stable would a mega Sinaloa cartel be? Remember, we are not dealing with a group of M.I.T. educated technocrats, but on the contrary, with a bunch of ruthless, pathological thugs who unfortunately tend to be rather intelligent and cunning. In other words this group is not a model of stability.

Can and would a Mexican government do away with megacartels that ensure the constant inflow of dollars that prop up a week economy? Can it be done is doubtful. I do believe however that there are at least a few people among the elites and in government that have a vision of a better Mexico and are attempting to steer the nation in that direction. The Mexican economy has a strong export sector fully integrated into the global economy that has been hurt by the current recession. The basic strength of this economy is evident as there is minimal inflation in spite of current conditions. Some may argue that this is due to narcodollars propping up the Peso but the banking system, although still a reservoir of some narco dollars, is more open and transparent than in the past. It is important to remember that although the profit margin of drug trafficking is high, so are the costs. Procurement of arms, communications and computer equipment, transportation costs, lavish lifestyles and the high cost of corruption payoffs all take a heavy toll on profits. This money also stays in the concentrated hands of traffickers and corrupted officials and after being laundered is not reinvested in productive job producing sectors of the economy but to a large degree is put into domestic "front" companies, taken out of the country and spent or invested in Europe or the U.S., or used in the acquisition of luxury goods. I cannot see any scenario under which the Mexican economy would collapse due solely to the elimination of narcodollar inflows.