"Drug cartel allegedly plotted to kill Mexican leader."

Here is an excerpt from this article on CNN.com:

"A suspected drug cartel lieutenant was in charge of a plot to kill Mexican President Felipe Calderon, Mexican government officials said. Dimas Diaz Ramos (pictured), known as 'El Dimas,'...was one  of five suspects arrested Sunday and publicly paraded before reporters Monday. The men belong to the Cartel del Pacifico, also known as the Sinaloa cartel, said Eduardo Ramon Pequeño, the Mexican federal police anti-drug chief. 'The federal police began its investigation because of a threat made against the president of the republic, as a result of the declared war against organized crime and after a series of arrests and seizure of large amounts of cash belonging to the 'El Mayo' Zambada organization last year by the army and federal police,' Pequeño said at Monday's news conference. 'Through intelligence reports by the federal government, it became known that the threat was made by the Cartel del Pacifico, and Dimas Diaz had been tasked with coming up with the details for a possible attempt.' Mexican officials did not release details of the alleged plot. Speaking in Guadalajara after a meeting with President Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Calderon downplayed any possible attempt on his life." Link to Full Article

Analysis: I can't ascertain from my official sources how credible or feasible this assassination attempt might have been. It wouldn't be the first time a DTO had shown interest in assassinating Calderon, and such plots have been discovered before. Much of the attempt to determine an assassination plot's credibility lies in assessing the benefit to the assassins from the death of the target. It's easy to assume that all DTOs want Calderon dead because he's been so aggressive in going after DTO members and their activities. But it's not always that simple.

DTOs in Mexico are considered organized crime groups (although I disagree with such a simple categorization). Organized crime groups don't want to overthrow governments - they want to control them through bribery and intimidation. Some criminal groups thrive in times of political instability; in fact, most guerrilla groups and terrorist organizations in Latin America have emerged during times of instability in their respective nations. But what makes DTOs different is that they operate as structured businesses (all violence aside) with a profit motivation. Most major businesses in Latin America do not perform as well during times of political uncertainty, which is surely what would occur should Calderon be assassinated. 

This doesn't mean that certain DTOs aren't willing to risk any negative consequences of political upheaval caused by Calderon's death. It may be initially easier for them to operate because military and law enforcement operations may be put on hold while the new government decides what steps to take next. The interim President (elected by Mexican Congress) may be softer on organized crime than Calderon and back off for fear of his own life. Or, he may go after the DTOs with a vengeance in light of such an extreme act. I don't know if more details about this plot will emerge, but I think there are just too many unknowns for the leadership of the major DTOs to realize all the consequences of such bold action.