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I am a consultant and analyst with eight years of military law enforcement experience, six years of analytical experience covering Latin America, and over seven years of analytical experience covering Mexican TCOs and border violence issues. This blog is designed to inform readers about current border violence issues and provide analysis on those issues, as well as detailed focus on specific border topics. By applying my knowledge and experience through this blog, I hope to separate the wheat from the chaff...that is, dispel rumors propagated by sensationalist media reporting, explain in layman's terms what is going on with Mexican TCOs, and most importantly, WHY violence is happening along the US-Mexico border.

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With over a dozen years of combined experience in military law enforcement, force protection analysis, and writing a variety of professional products for the US Air Force, state government in California, and the general public, Ms. Longmire has the expertise to create a superior product for you or your agency to further your understanding of Mexico’s drug war. Longmire Consulting is dedicated to being on the cusp of the latest developments in Mexico in order to bring you the best possible analysis of threats posed by the drug violence south of the border.

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October 04, 2011

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Myth 4. Our borders are being overrun with gun-toting criminals, and the entire southwest border is a war zone.

Myth 5. Our southwest border is as safe as it’s ever been.

Contradiction or are you just saying the border region is not a "war zone"? How do you define a war zone? Is an enemy placing dozens LP/OPs inside your territory and violating territorial integrity constitute acts of war? Or is not a war as long as we don't fight it?

Hola Sylvia,

I anxiously await my copy of Cartel. I knew a guy-sister-mom that were shot/killed with AK-47s a block away from my father-in-law's tienda de abarrotes. A fearful cop actually hid inside his store. My wife's from Acapulco.

Anyway, thanks for something to read on my next trip to Baja. Sailboat race San Diego-Ensenada this Friday. Cartels have not yet diminished my regular enjoyment of México.

Hasta luego,
AmigoAnónimo

I found you via the blog of Tom Barry. Perhaps it is a Good Thing dueling is no longer legal :^)

Without reading your books, and only a couple of each of y'alls blogs, I have to basically agree with you. It is also (somewhat) refreshing to hear from a (pardon if inaccurate) right-wing type that pot should be legalized. I have seen other estimates in the same basic range about the percentage of pot vs other drugs on the cartels.

50% or so would be a good hit on the cartel's profits. This begs the question - why not go all the way and legalize them all? The hard narcotics and opiates should be *medically* regulated, but I really doubt there would be a big rush of new users. The reasons people become new users is (I hope) well studied; I understand pain, physical and mental, are the primary reasons. (Thrill-seeking is the other reason I am told.) Physical pain has better controls than self-medication (assuming doctors are allowed to practice medicine, without the fear of the DEA throwing them in prison). Mental pain also has treatments, some better than others, but all better than being a junkie or in prison.

I would point out that the drug war, in the US, has really been a police action. Mexico and several South American countries have had actual wars. They have bodies piling up in the street, we have over-crowded prisons, all for no good reason.

It is obvious to me that the next step for the cartels to advance into the US, going first to the "illegal immigrants" areas, because they can use fear to remain under the radar, and police do not care about violence in these communities. Arizona has made this very clear.

The next step is all-out war on the cops, same as in Mexico. The cops are not ready for this level of violence. At what point does the US military become involved? Enough violence and Posse Comitatus will be changed.

Please note I am only using common sense, not advocating this "future history". This scenario would change the US forever, much more than 9/11 did.

I also live in New Mexico. This will be i my back yard.

Sylvia ... excellent job. I hope you take the subject matter in this particular thread and turn it into a mainstream news article that gets attention in the newspapers. It needs to be considered by many.

On a totally separate subject - I am sure you've already read about the bust on the (alleged) Iranian scheme to kill the Saudi Arabian ambassador in Washington DC (actually the Saudi rep to the U.N.). The interesting thing about that story is the attempt by the Iranians to pay the Zeta drug cartel to carry our murders and bombings in the USA. In this case the whole plot unraveled because the contact with the Zeta's was really a US informant. But what if it had been a real contact? Would the Zeta's have accepted $1.5 million to do a job like this? Interesting question!

P.

Thank you Sylvia and best of luck with the book sales.

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