I just finished watching the live broadcast of the SEDENA announcement concerning the arrest of several individuals in connection with the murder of ICE Agent Jaime Zapata. The alleged shooter is Julián "El Piolín" Zapata Espinosa, reportedly the Los Zetas plaza boss for San Luís Potosi. The other guys are pretty much inconsequential, and as it is, I'm having a very hard time finding any information on the main suspect. I did find a report from December 2009 about a raid where a Julián Zapata EspinoZa was arrested in San Luís Potosi, but I don't know if it's the same guy (the spelling of the last name is different). One interesting, and somewhat laughable, detail is that Zapata Espinosa said the shooting was a result of "a confusion," meaning they thought Jaime Zapata and Victor Avila were members of rival cartels...despite the diplomatic tags, their US government ID, and their lack of weapons.
Analysis: I think a lot of people were expecting someone else; perhaps because rumors were floating around that the Mexican army had arrested Jesus "El Mamito" Rejón - a DEA most-wanted narco with a $5 million tag on his head - when he, in fact, had only been named a suspect. There were also rumors floating that the Mexican navy may have killed or captured Miguel "Z-40" Treviño, on of the two Los Zetas chiefs, in Monterrey last night. Neither of those rumors has panned out, or at least, not yet.
Now the question becomes, will the Mexican government extradite Zapata Espinosa to the US? They've been historically more than hesitant to do so because they're not fans of some US states' death penalty. That didn't stop them from extraditing former Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cárdenas Guillen in 2007, but he avoided a potential death penalty by providing good intel to US authorities. I doubt Zapata could provide enough intel to get the same deal, but you never know.
I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out over the next couple of weeks, mainly to see if the arrests meet the satisfaction of the US government, and if Zapata is the real deal or just a fall guy.