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I am a consultant and analyst with eight years of military law enforcement experience, six years of analytical experience covering Latin America, and over seven years of analytical experience covering Mexican TCOs and border violence issues. This blog is designed to inform readers about current border violence issues and provide analysis on those issues, as well as detailed focus on specific border topics. By applying my knowledge and experience through this blog, I hope to separate the wheat from the chaff...that is, dispel rumors propagated by sensationalist media reporting, explain in layman's terms what is going on with Mexican TCOs, and most importantly, WHY violence is happening along the US-Mexico border.

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With over a dozen years of combined experience in military law enforcement, force protection analysis, and writing a variety of professional products for the US Air Force, state government in California, and the general public, Ms. Longmire has the expertise to create a superior product for you or your agency to further your understanding of Mexico’s drug war. Longmire Consulting is dedicated to being on the cusp of the latest developments in Mexico in order to bring you the best possible analysis of threats posed by the drug violence south of the border.

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May 10, 2010

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There are various scenarios to explain the situation. First of all, if the Tijuana plaza is relatively peaceful the only valid reason I can think of is that only one cartel is calling the shots and the other cartel has taken a back seat. Maybe the AFO no longer owns the loads but is charging a "cuota"(tax) for transit rights that the Sinaloa people can live with peacefully. The Sinaloa cartel would still be reaping the bulk of the profits and their leadership may be pragmatic enough to accept this arrangement in the short term. I'm not familiar with the west coast plaza, so I don't know if the Mexicali area belonged previously to the the AFO or the Sinaloa cartel but there have been at least 2 multi ton marijuana busts and several smaller cocaine and methamphetamine seizures in the Mexicali area in the last couple of months. All have been attributed to the Sinaloa cartel in the Mexican press. In fact all the recent dug seizures that I know of in that general area (Baja California, far NW Sonora)have been linked to the Sinaloa cartel and not the AFO.

One week before Teo was arrested they arrested one of his top leaders in Ensenada. This was reported in the San Diego newspaper. If he didn't co-operate with the police then I bet he wished he did. Soon after Teo's arrest they also picked up his co-leader ("Crutches") and his brother, too. So it seemed to me that the police effectively (can I use that word:)? ) rolled up the Teo organization as well. And with that Sinaloa's pioneer to Baja/Tijuana. Add to that the busts that Carrillo mentions above and, well, a betting man would agree that the AFO is in charge.

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