Mexico's Drug War

"Texas sheriff gets 5 years for helping drug cartel."

Here is an excerpt from Christopher Sherman's Associated Press article:

"A former Texas sheriff was sentenced to more than five years in federal prison Thursday for helping Mexican smugglers move drugs through his county on the U.S.-Mexico border in  exchange for thousands of dollars in bribes. U.S. District Judge Randy Crane sentenced former Starr County Sheriff Reymundo 'Rey' Guerra to 64 months in prison and four years of supervised release. The sentence was less than the eight to 10 years recommended under federal sentencing guidelines, but Guerra admitted his guilt early and cooperated with authorities, Crane said. FBI agents arrested Guerra at his office in October. Prosecutors termed Guerra a 'minor participant' in a drug trafficking conspiracy busted by operation 'Carlito's Weigh'... Prosecutors say Guerra made it easier for people tied to the Gulf Cartel to move drugs into the United States and, at least once, intervened in one of his own department's investigations to try to throw deputies off. He pleaded guilty in May to conspiring to distribute narcotics. Guerra apologized to his family, community and 'to the men and women who wear the badge. I'm sorry I let them down.'" Link to Full Article

Analysis: I can't stand to read articles like this because I always hate to be reminded that there are plenty of dirty federal, state, and local law enforcement officers out there. I posted on this issue in April, and my feelings about it haven't changed: corrupt border agents and cops need to be arrested, tried, and thrown in jail. I worked in law enforcement for over eight years, and I think "the code" among cops is a bunch of crap. Maybe I feel that way because I was a military/federal agent and my agency didn't have nearly as many internal issues like that as a large municipal department or federal agency. Regardless, I know there are a LOT of temptations out there for border agents and cops. But they're expected to be better people and rise above that. I know it can be a lot to ask, especially when many are out there risking their lives for our safety. However, just like the military, they're risking their lives voluntarily, and that doesn't entitle them to extra money or perks through bribes or other illegal activity.

Sam Logan, an author and journalist who REALLY knows what he's talking about regarding Mexico and Latin America, had some great comments on this story in his own blog:

"On the border, they can choose not to stop a car that they know is full of contraband. Border sheriffs, likewise, may choose not to focus their investigative force on specific subjects, or a specific hot spot in the county, because their criminal employers have asked him to simply look the other way. In the criminal world, there is likely no other job that is easier than looking the other way... Kudos for the FBI on taking this guy out. He is a disgrace to all men and women who wear a badge, and, unfortunately, stands as yet another example of how our law enforcement officials here in the US are not immune to the corruptive force of Mexican drug trafficking."

"US seeks crackdown on drug smuggling aboard trains."

Here is an excerpt from Christopher Sherman's Associated Press article, published in The Brownsville Herald:

"When rail cars idle on side tracks in Mexico to be loaded with legitimate cargo and shipped to  the United States, drug smugglers scan for places to hide their own loot — and if no good  place is apparent, they make one. arijuana and cocaine can be concealed above rail car axles or behind false undercarriages made of plywood. Bolder smugglers sometimes weld a false wall into a car or sabotage trains to stop them and quickly stow their contraband on board before the train moves on. Cars are then tagged with graffiti or other markings so the dealer in the U.S. can spot his delivery... Thousands of pounds of drugs arrive in the U.S. by freight train every year. Now the federal government says it's time American rail companies cracked down on their Mexican business partners to keep the drugs from reaching the border... Because American rail companies have an ownership stake in the two largest Mexican railroads, U.S. law enforcement is pressuring rail companies to crack down on smuggling." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Those of you who have been following this blog for a while may remember I commented on this issue back in late March. It appears that not much has changed. Union Pacific still refuses to pay fines for drug found in its railcars, and the US government still thinks it should take full responsibility for the security of those railcars on both sides of the border. I can't say that my stance on the issue has changed much either.

To reiterate, I can understand both sides of the argument. Other transportation companies, like container ship owners and commercial airlines, have to pay fines if drugs are found on their ships or planes; rail companies and their trains should be held to the same standard, right? If only it were that easy. Inspecting planes and ships at their point of departure, and once again at the point of arrival in the US, is easier in many ways than inspecting a train. Once a ship or a plane leaves, it's either at sea or in the air without any stops before it reaches the US. Due to current agreements between the US and Mexico, trains do not stop at the border for inspection before reaching their US destination, but they do slow down and can stop in any of a number of places enroute to the US. Drug smugglers are usually very good at what they do, and can place a load in a railcar at the train's origin or somewhere along the route after the cars have been inspected. By then, it's too late for Ferromex or Union Pacific to do anything about it.

Experts say that part of the problem is corruption and negligence or fear among rail employees. This comes as no surprise, and it's an endemic problem that can't be solved overnight, either by Ferromex or Union Pacific. No matter how many security measures are enacted by Mexican authorities or how much pressure is placed on them by Union Pacific, there's no good way to get around an inside job.

Details on some great links to Mexico security issues in my blogroll

If you've seen other blogs similar to mine - on any issue, really - they're likely to have what's called a Blogroll, or a list of other blogs and websites the author enjoys or finds useful. I'm no different, in that I have to look at plenty of sources of information in order to come to the (hopefully educated) conclusions that I post on my own blog. I'm pretty picky about what I post in my blogroll these days, and I wanted to give you a brief description on each site in case you can use any of them for your own research.

The first blog is Southern Pulse Networked Intelligence, which was created by Samuel Logan. Sam is an author and journalist who has traveled and lived throughout Latin America. He has written probably hundreds of articles and papers on all sorts of security-related topics, and most recently published a book on Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13. Anyway, Southern Pulse is pretty neat, and different because it only posts a short blurb, or "pulse," on a news topic related to security, politics, business, or economics in Latin America. Given the current security situation in Mexico, the posts relating to it are very frequent. It's up to you to do more digging on each story, but the blog is designed to give you a fast overview of current events.

Next is Sam's personal blog, Security in Latin America. Again, he covers topics for all of Latin America, but posts on Mexico are frequent.

Next is MexiData.info, which provides longer, more in-depth articles about Mexican security, politics, and economics. It's designed to provide useful, actionable information and open-source intelligence to businesses, governments, and concerned citizens. I was recently asked to be a contributor, and I post summaries of my weekly articles here in my blog with links to MexiData. I'm impressed with the credentials of my fellow contributors, and the information on this site is solid, well-written, and useful.

Next is Bloggings by Boz, a blog by James Bosworth. James is a freelance writer/analyst/consultant living in Washington, DC. Prior to going independent, he worked for an international strategic communications consulting company and a DC think tank. He writes on a wide variety of issues, but frequently posts about Mexico. James' analysis is always spot-on; he really knows what he's talking about, and he and Sam are acquainted.

Next is Security Corner, by Mario Gonzalez-Roman. The site specializes in the subjects of public security and crime prevention, and with good reason. Mario worked in the U.S. Embassy in Mexico for 28 years, and is now retired from the U.S. Civil Service. He was awarded four honorary recognitions by the Department of State and his responsibility included serving as liaison between the Secret Service and the Presidential staff during the visits of U.S. Presidents and Secretaries of State to Mexico. Mario has also been kidnapped and tortured, and kindly helps the families of kidnap victims to get through their ordeal. The site contains Mexico-related news and a wide variety of information on travel and security issues.

Next is the site for the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars' Mexico Institute. The site provides comprehensive and timely news, analysis and studies on Mexico. It covers a wide range of crucial issues, including migration, security, the economy, development, energy, and elections. It's also updated frequently, which is a must for me when looking for current stories on which to post an analysis.

Finally is Dr. James Creechan's Narco Mexico blog. Dr. Creechan is a sociology professor in Toronto, and has taught (and still teaches as a visiting professor) at universities in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. He specializes in criminology, and is currently teaching a class on Mexico's drug war. He posts news stories every day on his blog from the Mexican dailies, many with his analysis attached. Most of the posts are in Spanish, but he does post some English-language stories. This is a great site for checking daily news out of Mexico from the more reputable news sources.

I'm constantly looking for new blogs and sites that offer timely, intelligent, and useful information on Mexico's drug war and general Latin America security issues. Check back every so often to see if I've added any to my blogroll. Also, if you know of a really great site, either in English or Spanish, don't hesitate to email me and let me know about it. Thanks, and enjoy!

"Mexico's EPR 'Guerrillas': A Nuisance or a Threat in 2010?"

Here is an excerpt from my latest article on MexiData.info:

"In this time of unprecedented violence and criminal activity throughout Mexico, the last thing President Felipe Calderón’s government needs is a guerrilla group resurgence. But is the chaos in some parts of Mexico tempting those who seek to end the democratic state?

The Popular Revolutionary Army, or EPR for Ejército Popular Revolucionario, is a Marxist-Leninist  guerrilla group in Mexico that advocates a socialist revolution. The group announced its existence on June 28, 1996, at the one-year anniversary memorial of the Aguas Blancas Massacre, in Aguas Blancas, Guerrero.  During this announcement, the group read from its manifesto in which they described their origins: “We come from the sadness of widows and orphans, from the absence created by our disappeared loved ones." Then they called for the overthrow of the "unjust and illegitimate" Mexican government...

In 2010, Mexico will celebrate both the 200th anniversary of its call for Independence, and the centennial of the start of the Mexican Revolution. These are two huge events that could be used as an excuse for smaller, largely ignored rebel groups like the EPR to make their voices heard by the government."

To read more about the EPR, possible assistance they might be receiving from DTOs, and the future threat they might pose in Mexico, CLICK HERE.

"Mexico decriminalizes small drug amounts."

Here is an excerpt from this article from United Press International (UPI):

"Mexican President Felipe Calderon's war against drug cartels may be hurt by the decriminalization of small amounts of illegal drugs, critics say. A new law, which took effect Aug.  21, allows for the possession of the equivalent of about five joints of marijuana or four lines of cocaine, as well as small amounts of heroin and other drugs. It is a bid to free prosecutors up to concentrate on Calderon's war against large-scale drug traffickers, The Wall Street Journal reported. But some aren't so sure it's the best way to fight the drug traffickers. 'I'm sympathetic with the Mexicans that they need to find a more effective way to deal with the cartels,' said former ICE chief Julie Myers Wood, who, along with President George W. Bush, strongly opposed an earlier move by Mexico toward decriminalization. 'But just giving up, in terms of small amounts of drugs like and cocaine and heroin, does not seem to me to be the most sensible approach.' However, an official with Mexico's Attorney General's office told the Journal the decriminalization measure 'frees us from a flood of small crimes that have saturated our federal government and allows the authorities to go after big criminals.'" Link to Full Article

Analysis: I recently became an editorial contributor on Mario Gonzalez-Roman's Security Corner website. He had read through some of my work here and over at MexiData.info, and wanted my opinion on this issue. He was also interviewed live on Al Jazeera, and was looking for an additional viewpoint and information to provide during his interview. You can see my opinion on his site, but I'll offer it here is well. I'm not a huge fan of the decriminalization of any amount of the "harder" drugs, like cocaine and heroin. However, I'm (surprisingly, perhaps, to some of you) completely in favor of the decriminalization of small "personal use" amounts of marijuana. 

It's not because I think the law will make a huge dent in DTO profits; it won't. I do think it will alleviate some pressure on the judicial system and probably make more space in Mexican jails for people who really need to be there. But most importantly, it's a measured approach that allows time for the legal system, public health system, and society as a whole to adjust and determine whether the law's effects have been more positive or negative. In the case of the latter, it's easier to repeal a law for small amounts than to repeal wholesale legalization.

I recently looked at the most recent (2005) Gallup poll regarding Americans' feelings on the complete legalization of marijuana in the US; it hovers somewhere around 33% in support of legalization, and that's a figure that has steadily grown over the last two decades. However, the poll doesn't ask Americans how they would feel about the legalization of "personal use" amounts of marijuana; I wonder what those results would reflect, and how a similar law might affect our own legal - and public health - system.

The last - and perhaps most important - point that I need to make here is that this law does NOT legalize the production, distribution, and sale of illegal drugs in Mexico. DTOs are still as accountable as every for these actions, as are meth lab owners and street dealers. It just means that if you're at a club doing one line of cocaine in the bathroom, and you happen to get caught by an undercover cop, you won't get arrested and thrown in jail. However, they'll jot your name down, and if you get caught two more times, you'll have to get some help for addiction. Like I said earlier, this law is NOT going to make a huge dent in DTO profits, and I don't think it's an attempt to win the war against DTOs. I think it's more of of an attempt to deal with police corruption and perhaps make the government a bit more efficient. If the law is successful in doing this, then that will help in the drug war, and every little bit counts.

IN FOCUS: Making Sense of the Southbound Weapons Flow to Mexico

Here is an excerpt from my latest article on MexiData.info:

"There is no question that guns are flowing south from the United States into Mexico. Many, many guns. But the question so many people want answered is, exactly how many guns, and exactly where are they coming from?

The simple answer is, no one really knows, and no one will ever know with absolute certainty.

This fact is frustrating for many, including the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), the Mexican and U.S. governments, the National Rifle Association and anti-gun activists, and countless law enforcement officials trying to stem the southbound flow of guns. Seizure and trace statistics are funny things, in that they can be—and have routinely been—manipulated to fit almost any group’s agenda. The U.S. government has been using the statistic of 90 percent for the last year, and this number has been the source of much debate and controversy. So, what does that number mean?" To read the rest of this article on MexiData.info, CLICK HERE.

"Office of Mexican Newspaper Comes under Assault Rifle Attack."

Here is an excerpt from this article on the International Press Institute's website:

"Unidentified gunmen opened fire at around 1am local time on Wednesday at the editorial offices of the Coahuila-based daily Siglo de Torreón, according to the newspaper. There were no  reports of any injuries. Witnesses describe two assailants on motorcycles opening fire on the building’s façade, according to local news reports. The assault shattered the building’s glass exterior, and damaged walls, desks and furniture inside.Bullet casings from AK-47 and AR-15 assault rifles were found at the scene... Sources at the newspaper told IPI that they had not yet identified a possible motive behind the attack, and had received no warning prior to, or messages after, the incident... Mexico is the Western Hemisphere’s deadliest country for reporters, with at least four journalists murdered so far in 2009 for reasons believed to be related to their work, according to IPI’s Death Watch count." Link to Full Article

Analysis: This attack was interesting in that an entire news office was sprayed with bullets. Usually, individual reporters are threatened, kidnapped or murdered, although that's not always the case. The Washington Post reported that in late 2006 and 2007, grenades were thrown into newspaper offices in Cancun, Hermosillo and Nuevo Laredo, and gunmen attacked a radio station and newspaper in Oaxaca.

Mexico is second only to Iraq in the list of most dangerous countries to operate in as a journalist. Once a reporter starts writing truthful articles that make a DTO look bad, or reveals details about DTO personnel or operations, he or she immediately becomes a target. Despite the threats and despite the gruesome evidence that DTOs are willing to make good on their threats, there are several brave (some would call them foolhardy) reporters that are willing to tell it like it is. It can be REALLY hard to get good, reliable information on Mexican DTOs, both within Mexico and in the US. We rely heavily on good, solid reporting from newspapers like El Universal, La Jornada, Proceso, and many other good Spanish-language dailies to give us the Mexican perspective on the drug war. Without the brave souls who are willing to put their lives on the line to write and disseminate quality open source information on the drug war, many of us in the US that follow it would be clueless. 

"17 charged in string of brutal kidnappings and slayings in San Diego suburbs."

Here is an excerpt from Richard Marosi's article in the Los Angeles Times:

"Authorities announced charges Thursday against a Mexican gang that took Tijuana-style violence to the upscale suburbs of San Diego County, kidnapping, torturing and killing well-to-do residents, even after some families paid large ransoms. The gang, a rogue cell of the Tijuana-based Arellano Felix drug cartel, moved across the border in 2002 and posed as U.S. law enforcement, donning FBI and police uniforms and caps while snatching victims outside homes and public places, said San Diego County prosecutors. Nine victims were killed from 2004 to 2007, and the bodies of two of them were dissolved in chemicals at a rented house in San Diego. Gang members were also charged with trying to murder a Chula Vista police officer in September 2005, peppering his car with high-caliber bullets before fleeing in a car. The gang targeted people it suspected of having links to organized crime, although some victims had no known ties, authorities said." Link to Full Article

Analysis: When I was working as an analyst for the State of California, one of the most frustrating things for me, as well as colleagues in other border states, was the fact that no standardized definition exists for the term "spillover" or the concept of "border violence spillover." Whether or not it is occurring depends on whom you ask. In February 2009, Texas state Homeland Security Director Steve McCraw said, "Yes, absolutely it has occurred; there's no question about it," McCraw said after a hearing before the House Committee on Border and International Affairs." However, the unanimous opinion of 10 Southern Arizona law-enforcement officials interviewed by the Arizona Daily Star in April 2009 was that spillover was NOT happening. "Spillover crime would be bad for business," Douglas, Arizona Police Chief Alberto Melis said. "And they're businessmen."

But what guidance are these people using to form their very visible and influential public opinions regarding spillover? I ask this question because, reading the reasons 17 people were charged in San Diego for that string of kidnappings and killings, it's obvious to me (but apparently not to everyone) that border violence spillover is happening in San Diego, and probably plenty of other cities on the US side of the border. You might ask what guidance I'M using to form my opinion. One part of it is the fact that violent criminal activity directly related to Mexico's drug trade occurred and is occurring in the United States. A second part of it is that many of the perpetrators of these types of crimes move freely between both countries and target illegals, legal residents, and US citizens alike. True, most victims are not "innocent" in the sense that they are usually involved or connected to organized crime in some way. This fact does little to calm the fears of neighbors in the US cities and towns where these crimes are happening. The third part is the bold willingness to impersonate US law enforcement officers and use high-powered weapons in our cities to carry out the orders of foreign organized crime groups. If the actions of those 17 individuals don't qualify as border violence spillover, I don't know what ever will. 

"Mexico’s Drug Traffickers Continue Trade in Prison."

Here is an excerpt from Marc Lacey's article in The New York Times:

"The surveillance cameras captured it all: guards looking on nonchalantly as 53 inmates — many of them associated with one of Mexico’s most notorious drug cartels — let themselves out of  their cells and sped off in waiting vehicles. The video shows that prison guards only pulled out their weapons after the inmates were well on their way. The brazen escape in May in the northern state of Zacatecas — carried out in minutes without a single shot fired — is just one of many glaring examples of how Mexico’s crowded and cruel prison system represents a critical weak link in the drug war. Mexico’s prisons, as described by inmates and insiders and viewed during several visits, are places where drug traffickers find a new base of operations for their criminal empires, recruit underlings, and bribe their way out for the right price. The system is so flawed, in fact, that the Mexican government is extraditing record numbers of drug traffickers to the United States, where they find it much harder to intimidate witnesses, run their drug operations or escape." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Most people think that drug traffickers aren't afraid of anything - the law, the government...even death. Not true. They are afraid of one thing, and one thing only - extradition to the United States. Why? The above article says it all. In Mexican prisons, drug traffickers - especially the big ones, like Osiel Cardenas Guillen - live like kings. Not only can they continue to run their operations, but they eat the best food, have hotel room-like amenities, and can even have prostitutes brought in for their pleasure. 

And Cardenas Guillen is a really good example. He was arrested and put in a Mexican prison in 2003, but he continued to run the Gulf cartel in the luxury of his cell until his extradition to the US in 2007. He's now awaiting a trial that might not happen if he agrees to provide the US government with valuable intelligence on Mexican DTO personnel and activities. Even so, he's being treated like any other high-value prisoner in the US - maximum security, boring clothes, boring food, and a boring cell. Oh yeah, and that's perhaps for life, with little chance of his cronies breaking him out or corrupt prison guards letting him out.

Mexico has typically been averse to extraditing criminals to the US for trial, but after several high-profile prison breaks in recent years, the Mexican government is finally realizing that maybe it has a prison security problem. The US government is providing Mexico with $4 million to help revamp its prison system. Maybe that's a lot of money in Mexico, but $4 million won't get you much in the US. Then again, with the Mexican economy being in dire straits (like almost every other economy in the hemisphere), every red cent helps.

"Drug cartel allegedly plotted to kill Mexican leader."

Here is an excerpt from this article on CNN.com:

"A suspected drug cartel lieutenant was in charge of a plot to kill Mexican President Felipe Calderon, Mexican government officials said. Dimas Diaz Ramos (pictured), known as 'El Dimas,'...was one  of five suspects arrested Sunday and publicly paraded before reporters Monday. The men belong to the Cartel del Pacifico, also known as the Sinaloa cartel, said Eduardo Ramon Pequeño, the Mexican federal police anti-drug chief. 'The federal police began its investigation because of a threat made against the president of the republic, as a result of the declared war against organized crime and after a series of arrests and seizure of large amounts of cash belonging to the 'El Mayo' Zambada organization last year by the army and federal police,' Pequeño said at Monday's news conference. 'Through intelligence reports by the federal government, it became known that the threat was made by the Cartel del Pacifico, and Dimas Diaz had been tasked with coming up with the details for a possible attempt.' Mexican officials did not release details of the alleged plot. Speaking in Guadalajara after a meeting with President Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Calderon downplayed any possible attempt on his life." Link to Full Article

Analysis: I can't ascertain from my official sources how credible or feasible this assassination attempt might have been. It wouldn't be the first time a DTO had shown interest in assassinating Calderon, and such plots have been discovered before. Much of the attempt to determine an assassination plot's credibility lies in assessing the benefit to the assassins from the death of the target. It's easy to assume that all DTOs want Calderon dead because he's been so aggressive in going after DTO members and their activities. But it's not always that simple.

DTOs in Mexico are considered organized crime groups (although I disagree with such a simple categorization). Organized crime groups don't want to overthrow governments - they want to control them through bribery and intimidation. Some criminal groups thrive in times of political instability; in fact, most guerrilla groups and terrorist organizations in Latin America have emerged during times of instability in their respective nations. But what makes DTOs different is that they operate as structured businesses (all violence aside) with a profit motivation. Most major businesses in Latin America do not perform as well during times of political uncertainty, which is surely what would occur should Calderon be assassinated. 

This doesn't mean that certain DTOs aren't willing to risk any negative consequences of political upheaval caused by Calderon's death. It may be initially easier for them to operate because military and law enforcement operations may be put on hold while the new government decides what steps to take next. The interim President (elected by Mexican Congress) may be softer on organized crime than Calderon and back off for fear of his own life. Or, he may go after the DTOs with a vengeance in light of such an extreme act. I don't know if more details about this plot will emerge, but I think there are just too many unknowns for the leadership of the major DTOs to realize all the consequences of such bold action.

"The growing threat of grenades from Mexico."

Here is an excerpt from Jacques Billeaud's Associated Press article in The Dallas Morning News:

"It was a scenario U.S. law enforcement had long feared: A fragmentation grenade from Mexico's bloody drug war tossed into a public place. Only the grenade thrower's bumbling in that January incident prevented bloodshed in a South Texas bar – he neglected to pull a  second safety clasp. But the act was proof that one of the deadliest weapons in Mexico's drug battle is a real threat to the U.S., and investigators are stepping up efforts to make sure it doesn't happen again. While Mexican drug violence has been spilling across the border in the form of kidnappings and killings, grenades are a particular worry because they can kill large numbers of people indiscriminately, and they are a weapon of choice among Mexican cartel members... [Grenades] are preferred by drug hit men because they are cheap and easy to find. Many are left over from Central America's civil wars and sold on the black market to drug cartels. Some are brought in by weapons smugglers. Others are diverted from the region's militaries: In April, Guatemala seized 563 grenades after a shootout with Mexican drug cartel members, and officials later determined the grenades came from Guatemalan military bases. And there is evidence that those grenades are making their way north." Link to Full Article

Analysis: When that South Korean-made grenade was thrown into a bar in Texas, I was working as an analyst for California's homeland security apparatus, so I was very concerned about a similar incident occurring in San Diego or Imperial Counties (closest to the Mexican border). That happened in February 2009, and a similar incident hasn't happened since, either in Texas or anywhere else on the US side of the border. Given the widespread availability of hand grenades in Mexico - along with the DTOs' willingness to use them - one has to wonder why they haven't been used more frequently in the US.

I can only speculate, of course, but DTOs historically haven't been too big on drawing attention from US law enforcement inside US territory. There was a huge to-do in May 2009 about a possible order by Sinaloa's "El Chapo" Guzman to engage US law enforcement (rather than run) if confronted while moving a load. Neither that order, nor the meeting where that order was supposedly given, were ever confirmed. I don't believe that order was ever given because confronting US law enforcement unnecessarily on US territory is bad for business. Like it or not, several Mexican DTOs and their US-based gang distributors have a good thing going here. Drawing major attention to themselves by lobbing grenades into public places or in front of police stations in Texas - like they do almost every day in Mexico - is not the best way to stay under the radar and keep the drug business going by keeping scrutiny to a minimum.

To further back up my theory, I'm taking a look at the Pharr grenade incident itself and the alleged perpetrators. The "attack" was completely bungled, and the grenade was thrown by a local gang member. I still don't know exactly why they did it, but rumors being thrown around at the time included an attempt to impress the Gulf cartel to seek ad-hoc employment with them, as well as some kind of gang-on-gang hit. Regardless, it was an amateur job by a group of punks who had no clue what they were doing. Not that the level of professionalism in Mexican hits is always high, but in a DTO-sanctioned job, the grenade usually goes off.

Then there's the question of whether or not the author's assertion that grenades are heading north is true. Well...maybe. I don't doubt that grenades could make their way into the US for similar attacks in the future, but if they're already there, the ATF and local cops aren't finding them; at least, not in the numbers that the Mexican authorities are finding them. And while grenade attacks are more common in Mexico and are viewed as a criminal matter, they just don't happen at all in the US. I can almost guarantee you that a grenade going off in a McDonald's or a mall or in front of a police station in Arizona would be viewed by civilians as a terrorist-style attack. DTOs know this, and they know that would be very bad for business indeed.

"Los Linces, Mexican Drug War Contemporaries of Los Zetas."

Greetings! I'm excited to let you all know I've been invited to contribute weekly articles to MexiData.info, a great resource for important happenings in Mexico. You can read all about them HERE. Meanwhile, here is an excerpt from my first article on their site:

"Drug-related violence throughout Mexico is vicious, rampant, and almost always attributed to drug trafficking organizations, or DTOs. However, that attribution is very generic. To many, DTOs are just a faceless machine of drugs, death, and destruction. To others, they are disciplined and well-structured organizations designed to make maximum profit through bribery, intimidation, and enforcement. Upper-level management, as it were, of Mexican DTOs aren’t the ones who get their hands dirty during day-to-day operations and in defense of their transport routes. This is the job of the enforcement groups... While some enforcement group activities are well publicized—and thus well-known throughout Mexico and the U.S., the VCFO’s enforcer group under La Linea has been very hard to pin down. It is called Los Linces, and very little concrete information is available about its members. On July 21, 2009, General Raúl David Guillén Altuza, chief of staff of the 5th Military Zone headquartered in Chihuahua, confirmed their existence. He also said some of their members are former Mexican military members, but not all."

If you'd like to read the rest of the article and learn more about Los Linces, CLICK HERE. And don't worry, I'll still continue to post my analysis on Mexico's Drug War here on my blog. MexiData.info is just a good way for me to diversify, and keep fighting the good fight!

"Is Gulf Cartel's alleged top boss ready to talk?"

Here is an excerpt from Dane Schiller and James Pinkerton's article in The Houston Chronicle:

"After hooded federal agents whisked the reputed head of the Gulf Cartel drug trafficking  syndicate from a Mexican prison to Houston to face justice nearly three years ago, he was branded by authorities as among the most notorious and feared gangsters in the world. But now, just weeks before Osiel Cardenas Guillen's blockbuster trial is set to begin, his lawyers and federal prosecutors are jousting behind closed courtroom doors and suddenly banned by the judge from discussing one of the most notorious cartel cases in the nation. Could U.S. prosecutors be brokering a deal with Cardenas in exchange for telling what he knows about Mexico's underworld, including who has been on his payroll?" Link to Full Article

Analysis: Based on information from my sources close to this story, as they say in the papers, there's a lot of shady stuff going on with Cardenas Guillen's upcoming trial and overall legal situation. He is arguably one of the biggest, if not the biggest, Mexican DTO fish the US has caught. It's no surprise the US government is interested in brokering a deal to extract information from the former head of the Gulf cartel. But the situation begs some questions: how current - and thus valuable - is the information he knows, how much is the US government willing to reduce his sentence if he cooperates, and how long could Cardenas Guillen possibly survive after getting out of prison?

It appears that the US government has an iron-clad case against Cardenas Guillen, despite his defense team's extraordinary efforts. The fact that they may be considering a plea deal indicates they feel the information he has regarding DTO operations in Mexico is still relevant and valuable. Cardenas Guillen was arrested in 2003, but pretty much ran the Gulf cartel from a Mexican prison until he was extradited to the US in 2007. In some cases, information that is two years old may still be accurate and useful, but in Mexico, things have changed a LOT since 2007.

But then again, there's the old saying that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Alliances and loyalties may have shifted several times between DTOs, but the basics of the drug trafficking business are essentially the same: get the loads across however you can, and with minimal law enforcement interference. Use bribery. Use weapons. Use threats and intimidation. Take control of the best routes. Keep control of the best routes. If your route gets burned, find another one, and get creative if you have to. Perhaps these are the kinds of details the US government hopes to obtain through a plea deal with Cardenas Guillen. Considering the position both the US and Mexican governments are in right now, even a little bit of good - I mean, REALLY good - intelligence could go a long way.

"Senator holds up U.S. anti-drug aid to Mexico."

Here is an excerpt from Susan Cornell's article in Reuters:

"Mexico has not yet met human rights requirements laid down in U.S. law for the release of millions of dollars in U.S. anti-narcotics aid... Senator Patrick Leahy (pictured) said in a statement that it  would be premature for the U.S. government to issue a report affirming Mexico is respecting human rights in its war against drug traffickers. Leahy is chairman of a subcommittee that oversees foreign aid spending. His stance could delay the release of millions of dollars in U.S. anti-narcotics aid under a program called the Merida Initiative... "The law withholds 15 percent of the Merida funds until the Secretary of State reports to Congress that the Mexican government is meeting four requirements, including prosecuting military and police officers who violate human rights," Leahy said in a statement. "Those requirements have not been met, so it is premature to send the report to Congress. We had good faith discussions with Mexican and U.S. officials in reaching these requirements in the law, and I hope we can continue in that spirit," he said. The State Department had intended to send a favorable report on Mexico's human rights record ahead of President Barack Obama's visit to Guadalajara for a summit of North American leaders this weekend... More than $100 million in U.S. aid to Mexico is at stake under the Merida Initiative, a three-year, $1.4 billion counter-narcotics package launched in 2007 under former President George W. Bush... The aid, aimed at helping Mexico crush the drug trade that has most of its market in the United States, is for uses such as training Mexico's police and buying helicopters and other equipment." Link to Full Article

Analysis: There are a couple of issues going on here that I want to comment on - the withholding of financial aid due to certain conditions not being met, and the condition itself of human rights violations. The first is certainly not new or unexpected, and completely fair when the US is doling out so much money for a neighboring country's drug war. The second is subjective, political, and often hypocritical, which is going to further saddle the Merida Initiative with controversy and red tape.

US foreign aid with strings attached isn't new, and has resulted in many disgruntled governments in mostly the third world. The Inter Press Service, or IPS, reported the following in 2004: "[Njoki Njoroge] Njehu [director of the 50 Years is Enough campaign] cited the example of Eritrea, which discovered it would be cheaper to build its network of railways with local expertise and resources rather than be forced to spend aid money on foreign consultants, experts, architects and engineers imposed on the country as a condition of development assistance. Strings attached to US aid for similar projects, she added, include the obligation to buy products such as Caterpillar and John Deere tractors... Njehu also pointed out that money being doled out to Africa to fight HIV/AIDS is also a form of tied aid. She said Washington is insisting that the continent’s governments purchase anti-AIDS drugs from the United States instead of buying cheaper generic products from South Africa, India or Brazil. As a result, she said, US brand name drugs are costing up to 15,000 dollars a year compared with 350 dollars annually for generics." Furthermore, in their 2000 report looking back at the previous year, Reality of Aid 2000 reported in their US section that “71.6% of its bilateral aid commitments were tied to the purchase of goods and services from the US.” That is, where the US did give aid, it was most often tied to foreign policy objectives that would help the US.

It's not entirely surprising that the US would tie a human rights condition to Merida Initiative money, but the specifics are interesting for the political and diplomatic nuances alone. The US has maintained an embargo against Cuba for 47 years, partly due to human rights abuses by the Cuban government against the Cuban people. Yet, the US government has granted China "most favored nation" status as a trading partner, despite rampant human rights abuses committed by the Chinese government.

Here's an interesting summary of a report by Indiana University political science professors in the Journal of Peace Research: "Respect for human rights is one of several factors influencing US aid allocation decisions. Whereas previous research identifies human rights practices as being of secondary importance, it typically does not explore whether there is a more complicated relationship between human rights practices and US aid allocation. The authors argue that the impact of human rights varies at different levels of democracy and economic development. Employing data on 151 countries from 1977 to 2004, this study also investigates whether there has been an increase in the impact of human rights practices since the end of the Cold War. The results of the analysis show that during the Cold War, economic development was the prevailing factor in decisions about whether to allocate US aid. In the post-Cold War era, human rights practices are one among several significant variables, albeit exerting a generally negative impact. These results indicate that shifts in the international environment have, in fact, altered the determinants of US foreign aid. The authors further demonstrate that after the Cold War, countries with low economic development and transitioning regimes are subject to diminished levels of accountability for their human rights practices, while aid allocations to autocratic regimes follow the logic of promoting relatively higher human rights standards."

So what does this mean for Merida Initiative money attached to human rights conditions? Simply put, it's complicated. The Mexican army has been accused of human rights abuses before, but I believe there has never been a successful prosecution for it. The Mexican army is the least corrupt of any government institutions currently doing battle against the cartels, and the US government knows that. The US government also knows it has engaged both economically and politically with countries guilty of abuses considerably worse than those the Mexican army is accused of. I believe US politicians feel the need to express concern (or make a show of it, anyway) over these abuses because that's what they're supposed to do. Yet, they're under a lot of pressure to provide assistance to Mexico in light of southbound weapons trafficking and border violence spillover concerns. As they have in the past, Mexican army abuses will continue, they will eventually be overlooked, and the Merida Initiative money spigot will open up again.