"Counting Mexico's Guns."

Here is an excerpt from D'Angelo Gore's analysis on FactCheck.org:

"There's no dispute that thousands of handguns, military style rifles and other firearms are purchased in the U.S. and end up in the hands of Mexican criminals each year. It's relatively easy to buy such guns legally in Texas and other border states and to smuggle them across. But is it true as President Obama said, that "More than 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States?" No, it's not... The figure represents only the percentage of crime guns that have been submitted by Mexican officials and traced by U.S. officials. We can find no hard data on the total number of guns actually "recovered in Mexico," but U.S. and Mexican officials both say that Mexico recovers more guns than it submits for tracing.  Therefore, the percentage of guns "recovered" and traced to U.S. sources necessarily is less than 90 percent. Furthermore, the 90 percent figure is based on a badly biased sample of all Mexican crime guns. Law enforcement officials say Mexico asks the U.S. to trace only those guns with serial numbers or other markings that indicate they are likely to have come though the U.S. Fox News has put the percentage at only 17 percent, but we find that to be based on a mistaken assumption that throws its figure way off. We can't offer a precise calculation because we know of no hard information on the total number of guns Mexican officials have recovered. But if a rough figure given by Mexico's attorney general is accurate, then the actual percentage of all Mexican crime guns traced to U.S. sources is probably less than half what the president claims, and more than double what Fox news has reported." Link to Full Article

Analysis: Thank God that someone on the web with a shred of credibility is making some sense of the US-guns-going-to-Mexico issue. I highly encourage you to read the full article, as it makes a LOT of sense regarding the fact that we'll never really know how many guns are flowing from the US into Mexico, and more importantly, WHY we'll never know. Because of my access to law enforcement data that I can't share here, I'm still more inclined to believe the number is closer to 90% than 34%, but because of the nature of the problem, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the weapons trafficking fairy told me tomorrow that she knew for absolute fact that the number was 72%.

The one serious point I need to make is one that flies in the face of William La Jeunesse's infuriating article regarding the submission of guns recovered in Mexico for tracing. You can NOT tell where a gun was sold by looking at the gun or looking at the serial number. You can tell the company that manufactured the gun, what country the gun was made in, what year the gun was made, and possibly if it was exported to the US. The now infamous Fox News article claims that the Mexican government didn't submit thousands of guns for tracing to the ATF because it could tell by looking at them and their serial numbers that the guns likely didn't come from the US. I'd love to know what fortune teller, psychic, or general wizard they have working for them because they sure could help out DHS. 

Anyway, here's how the tracing thing works. Someone (including the Mexican government) seizes a gun at a crime scene. It either had a serial number or it doesn't (e.g. the number was filed off). If there's no serial number, it can't be traced. Move to the guns that CAN be traced because they have a serial number. IF the gun was previously used in a crime in the US (meaning it was entered into an ATF or other law enforcement agency's database), then the tracing process is easier. If the gun was NOT used in a crime in the US, the ATF has limited courses of action. First, it can find out where the gun was manufactured and go to that company. The company can then tell them the dealer they sold that gun to - but usually only with a warrant. The ATF can then go to that dealer - again, probably with a warrant - and ask them who they sold the gun to. Luck is on the ATF's side if that person is the end of the trail and the ATF can find them. However, in places where individual-to-individual firearm sales are easy (e.g. Texas and Arizona), that gun may have been sold seven times over at a gun show, pawn shop, or in someone's driveway with no records kept. Mind you, a responsible gun owner would always keep records of gun sales just clear his or her own name in such a situation. Still, proving complicity would be difficult at best without a clear trail from that person to the gun's recovery in Mexico.

Bottom line, these are just some of the reasons why tracing guns is a difficult task in many situations, and why we'll never know the real story of the "iron river of guns," as some media outlets have named it. As is often the case, the media has some parts of the story right, but not all. While I certainly don't have all the answers (if I did, I'd be writing books and not blog entries), I hope I encourage you to take these types of stories with a grain, and sometimes a boulder, of salt.

Comments

[Dr. Tim Gottleber]

Please consider the type of weapons being collected. Most are full auto, military weapons. They use hand grenades, full auto weapons, MILITARY tools, not what you find at gun shows. This type of weapon requires a special tax stamp to transfer. You can't transfer a machine gun "in the driveway" in Texas w/o first making sure that the recipient has a valid transfer document, a document that is registered with BATF. Sure, there are military weapons moving South from the US, but its not the weapons owned by civilians that the DTOs are buying. They aren't buying true assault weapons at gun shows. This is very misleading and focuses on the wrong end of the weapon buying spectrum. Please rethink the civilian sourcing idea.

[Sylvia Longmire]

Thanks for your comment! I don't know if I agree that MOST firearms used by DTOs are full-auto military-grade weapons. According to the USDOJ's Project Gunrunner fact sheet, "ATF has analyzed firearms recovered in Mexico from 2005-2008 and has identified the following weapons most commonly used by drug trafficking organizations: 9mm pistols; .38-caliber revolvers; 5.7mm pistols; .223-caliber rifles; 7.62mm rifles; and .50 caliber rifles." Even the .223 and 7.62 can be easily purchased (what California calls copycat assault rifles, like the Bushmaster XM-15). Firearms with those calibers CAN be purchased at gun shows and gun shops in the US, and can easily be modified later to military specs. I do agree that the LAW rockets, RPGs, frag grenades, etc. are not coming from the US, but rather other Central and Latin American countries and the Mexican army's own stock. I'm in contact with the ATF on almost a daily basis, so that's where I get my thoughts about the civilian sourcing - it is a big problem, and it's not going to stop any time soon.

[Bob Nelson]

I realize this is an old post, but there is one fact that needs to be brought out.

The only guns that can be traced are U.S. manufactured guns or guns legally imported into the United States. There are no other tracing systems in the world.

When it is said of the seized and traced Mexican guns, 90% of the guns "that can be traced" came from the United States, this statement is simply silly. If the guns don't come from the United States, they can't be traced. Period.

And the ATF can only trace 90% of the guns that came through the commercial market in the United States? With all the ATF required records and commercial records maintained by dealers, ATF could only trace 90%? And how many millions of tax dollars have been spent on the National Tracing Center and eTrace?